União Santarém vs Mafra• Liga 3, Portugal

#61.6:1.219:00Today · Campo Cha das Padeiras, Santarem1.8:1.6#3

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

13.49PINX3.40DAF22.10BTNMargin at best5.7%Books7Markets44Rating50 · 50 levelExp. goals L53.1

Price board · 1X2captured 6 Nov 14:05 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	3.49	3.29	2.08	7.1%
Dafabet	3.40	3.40	2.02	8.3%
Betano	3.30	3.25	2.07	9.4%
1xBet	3.28	3.18	2.04	11.0%
William Hill	3.30	3.10	2.05	11.3%
Bet365	3.20	3.25	2.00	12.0%
Marathonbet	3.20	3.18	2.02	12.2%
Best of all books	3.49	3.40	2.08	6.1%
Average	3.31	3.24	2.04	10.1%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

União SantarémMafra

Last 10#6Table position#31.25Points per game1.509Form pts · last 591.6Goals for · last 51.81.2Goals against · last 51.647Attack rating5357Defence rating4353Form rating4729H2H rating7168Goals model3250Overall rating50

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 5 Nov 19:00 UTC

União Santarém

4W 1D 5L · goals 16:17 · per match 1.6 for, 1.7 against

31 Oct	A	Atlético CP	1-3	L
25 Oct	H	Vitória de Sernache	2-1	W
14 Oct	H	GIL Vicente	2-3	L
9 Oct	H	Lusitano Évora 1911	3-0	W
20 Sep	H	Merelinense	5-0	W
12 Sep	A	Louletano	2-1	W
4 Sep	H	Caldas	0-1	L
22 Aug	A	CF Os Belenenses	0-5	L
14 Aug	H	Oliveirense	1-1	D
8 Aug	A	SC Covilha	0-2	L

Mafra

4W 4D 2L · goals 19:17 · per match 1.9 for, 1.7 against

31 Oct	H	Louletano	2-1	W
24 Oct	A	Caldas	3-3	D
18 Oct	H	Santa Clara	3-2	W
11 Oct	H	CF Os Belenenses	2-2	D
19 Sep	H	Tirsense	2-2	D
12 Sep	A	Oliveirense	1-2	L
5 Sep	H	SC Covilha	1-0	W
29 Aug	A	Atlético Malveira	3-2	W
22 Aug	A	Lusitano Évora 1911	1-2	L
15 Aug	A	Atlético CP	1-1	D

Head to head

1União Santarém wins

1draws

3Mafra wins

5 meetings · goals 5:6 · last 5: 1W 1D 3L for União Santarém

3 Apr 2026Liga 3	Liga 3	Mafra2-1União Santarém
4 Mar 2026Liga 3	Liga 3	União Santarém3-1Mafra
16 Jan 2026Liga 3	Liga 3	Mafra0-0União Santarém
26 Oct 2025Liga 3	Liga 3	União Santarém1-2Mafra
2 Oct 2022Taça de Portugal	Taça de Portugal	União Santarém0-1Mafra

Liga 3 tableLiga 3updated 5 Nov 15:01 UTC

In the Liga 3 table, União Santarém sit 6th with 10 points from 8 games, while Mafra are 3rd with 12 points from 8.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Paredes	8	6	1	1	17:8	+9	19
1	CF Os Belenenses	8	6	2	0	18:6	+12	20
2	AD Marco 09	8	4	2	2	8:5	+3	14
2	Atlético CP	8	5	2	1	17:7	+10	17
3	Fafe	8	3	4	1	13:7	+6	13
3	Mafra	8	3	3	2	16:11	+5	12
4	Leça	8	4	1	3	11:9	+2	13
4	Caldas	8	3	2	3	10:12	-2	11
5	Vianense	8	2	4	2	12:13	-1	10
5	Oliveirense	8	2	4	2	10:11	-1	10
6	Guimaraes B	8	2	3	3	10:10	0	9
6	União Santarém	8	3	1	4	9:14	-5	10
7	São João Ver	8	2	3	3	9:10	-1	9
7	Louletano	8	2	2	4	10:12	-2	8
8	Varzim	8	3	0	5	11:13	-2	9
8	SC Covilha	8	1	4	3	5:8	-3	7
9	Pacos Ferreira	8	2	2	4	8:13	-5	8
9	Vitória de Sernache	8	2	1	5	6:15	-9	7
10	Trofense	8	1	2	5	4:15	-11	5
10	Lusitano Évora 1911	8	1	3	4	6:11	-5	6

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg128%3.30X28%3.24244%2.04

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 5.7% margin.

1X2 since open average price

13.02 → 3.30 +9.3%X3.07 → 3.24 +5.5%22.26 → 2.04 -9.7%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	1.87	1.93	5.3%
Bet365	1.95	1.85	5.3%
Betano	1.90	1.82	7.6%
1xBet	1.84	1.83	9.0%
Marathonbet	1.84	1.83	9.0%
Best of all books	1.95	1.93	3.1%
Average	1.88	1.85	7.2%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	1.73	2.00	7.8%
1xBet	1.68	2.02	9.0%
Betano	1.70	1.98	9.3%
Marathonbet	1.68	1.99	9.8%
Best of all books	1.73	2.02	7.3%
Average	1.70	2.00	9.0%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

União Santarém 35%Draw 35%Mafra 30%

The statistical model rates União Santarém at 35% to win, the draw at 35% and Mafra at 30% — against average 1X2 odds of 3.30 | 3.24 | 2.04, which imply roughly 30.3% for a União Santarém win versus the model's 35%.

Form context from the Liga 3 table: União Santarém are 6th (10 pts, 9-14 goals), Mafra 3rd (12 pts, 16-11).

Over their last five matches, União Santarém averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game; Mafra averaged 1.8 scored and 1.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : União Santarém or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
3.31	3.24	2.04

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.66	1.27	1.27

Draw no bet

1	2
2.37	1.52

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.70	2.00

1st half

1	X	2
3.85	2.12	2.65

2nd half

1	X	2
3.46	2.42	2.41

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	5.08	15.2	24.0
HT X	7.00	4.97	5.37
HT 2	31.7	14.8	3.45

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.25	9.38	1.77

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.04	7.98
1.5	1.28	3.23
2.5	1.88	1.85
3.5	3.07	1.29
4.5	5.55	1.10
5.5	13.0	1.03

10 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.02	8.30
1.25	1.17	3.98
1.75	1.30	3.07
2	1.39	2.67
2.25	1.62	2.14
2.75	2.08	1.65
3	2.47	1.45
3.25	2.79	1.36
3.75	3.82	1.18
4	5.30	1.09

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.25	2.80	1.38
0	2.41	1.51
+0.25	1.94	1.79
+0.5	1.72	2.05
+0.75	1.51	2.38
+1	1.33	3.05

10 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	7.07	1.06
-1.25	6.00	1.12
-1	6.12	1.09
-0.75	4.07	1.19
-0.5	3.34	1.31
+1.25	1.25	3.48
+1.5	1.21	3.85
+1.75	1.18	4.65
+2	1.05	7.40
+2.5	1.01	8.60

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
10.5	2.01	1.74

Next Liga 3 matches

6 Nov	CF Os Belenenses – Lusitano Évora 1911
7 Nov	Caldas – Oliveirense
7 Nov	São João Ver – Guimaraes B
7 Nov	Vianense – Leça
7 Nov	AD Marco 09 – Paredes
8 Nov	Louletano – SC Covilha

All Liga 3 fixtures and the table

Latest Liga 3 results

1 Nov	Paredes 2-1 São João Ver
1 Nov	Guimaraes B 2-2 Vianense
1 Nov	Lusitano Évora 1911 0-1 Vitória de Sernache
1 Nov	SC Covilha 0-1 Caldas
31 Oct	Oliveirense 1-2 CF Os Belenenses
31 Oct	Trofense 0-2 AD Marco 09