Trofense vs AD Marco 09• Liga 3, Portugal

#100.8:2.015:00Tomorrow · Trofa0.6:0.4#2

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

14.08PINX3.25DAF22.00BFRMargin at best5.3%Books8Markets40Rating37 · 63Exp. goals L51.9

Price board · 1X2captured 30 Oct 05:45 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	4.08	3.10	1.99	7.0%
Dafabet	3.80	3.25	1.97	7.8%
Betano	3.90	3.10	1.95	9.2%
Betfair	3.70	3.10	2.00	9.3%
1xBet	3.76	3.05	1.94	10.9%
William Hill	3.80	3.00	1.95	10.9%
Marathonbet	3.65	3.05	1.92	12.3%
Bet365	3.75	3.10	1.85	13.0%
Best of all books	4.08	3.25	2.00	5.3%
Average	3.81	3.09	1.95	10.0%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

TrofenseAD Marco 09

Last 10#10Table position#20.71Points per game1.572Form pts · last 570.8Goals for · last 50.62.0Goals against · last 50.457Attack rating4317Defence rating8338Form rating6220H2H rating8057Goals model4337Overall rating63

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 30 Oct 00:02 UTC

Trofense

1W 3D 6L · goals 6:22 · per match 0.6 for, 2.2 against

24 Oct	A	Paredes	0-4	L
11 Oct	A	Fafe	2-2	D
12 Sep	H	Leça	1-4	L
5 Sep	A	Guimaraes B	0-0	D
29 Aug	A	Varzim	1-5	L
22 Aug	H	São João Ver	1-0	W
15 Aug	A	Vianense	0-2	L
9 Aug	H	Varzim	0-1	L
31 Jul	A	AVS	1-1	D
16 May	A	Academica	0-3	L

AD Marco 09

5W 2D 3L · goals 8:8 · per match 0.8 for, 0.8 against

25 Oct	H	Fafe	0-0	D
17 Oct	A	Farense	0-3	L
10 Oct	A	Leça	0-2	L
20 Sep	H	Maia Lidador	1-0	W
12 Sep	H	Guimaraes B	1-0	W
6 Sep	A	São João Ver	0-0	D
30 Aug	A	Régua	1-0	W
23 Aug	H	Vianense	2-0	W
16 Aug	A	Varzim	1-2	L
9 Aug	H	Pacos Ferreira	2-1	W

Head to head

0Trofense wins

1draws

1AD Marco 09 wins

2 meetings · goals 1:2 · last 2: 0W 1D 1L for Trofense

18 Jan 2026Liga 3	Liga 3	Trofense0-1AD Marco 09
25 Oct 2025Liga 3	Liga 3	AD Marco 091-1Trofense

Liga 3 tableLiga 3updated 29 Oct 19:31 UTC

In the Liga 3 table, Trofense sit 10th with 5 points from 7 games, while AD Marco 09 are 2nd with 11 points from 7.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Paredes	7	5	1	1	15:7	+8	16
1	CF Os Belenenses	7	5	2	0	16:5	+11	17
2	AD Marco 09	7	3	2	2	6:5	+1	11
2	Atlético CP	7	4	2	1	14:6	+8	14
3	Fafe	7	2	4	1	10:6	+4	10
3	Oliveirense	7	2	4	1	9:9	0	10
4	Leça	7	3	1	3	9:9	0	10
4	União Santarém	7	3	1	3	8:11	-3	10
5	São João Ver	7	2	3	2	8:8	0	9
5	Mafra	7	2	3	2	14:10	+4	9
6	Vianense	7	2	3	2	10:11	-1	9
6	Louletano	7	2	2	3	9:10	-1	8
7	Varzim	7	3	0	4	11:11	0	9
7	Caldas	7	2	2	3	9:12	-3	8
8	Pacos Ferreira	7	2	2	3	7:10	-3	8
8	SC Covilha	7	1	4	2	5:7	-2	7
9	Guimaraes B	7	2	2	3	8:8	0	8
9	Lusitano Évora 1911	7	1	3	3	6:10	-4	6
10	Trofense	7	1	2	4	4:13	-9	5
10	Vitória de Sernache	7	1	1	5	5:15	-10	4

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg124%3.79X29%3.09247%1.95

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 5.3% margin.

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	2.42	1.53	6.7%
Bet365	2.38	1.53	7.4%
1xBet	2.29	1.53	9.0%
Marathonbet	2.29	1.53	9.0%
Betano	2.27	1.53	9.4%
Best of all books	2.42	1.53	6.7%
Average	2.33	1.53	8.3%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	2.00	1.70	8.8%
1xBet	2.01	1.69	8.9%
Betano	2.02	1.67	9.4%
Marathonbet	2.01	1.67	9.6%
Best of all books	2.02	1.70	8.3%
Average	2.01	1.68	9.2%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Trofense 10%Draw 45%AD Marco 09 45%

The statistical model rates Trofense at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and AD Marco 09 at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 3.79 | 3.09 | 1.95, which imply roughly 32.4% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Liga 3 table: Trofense are 10th (5 pts, 4-13 goals), AD Marco 09 2nd (11 pts, 6-5).

Over their last five matches, Trofense averaged 0.8 goals scored and 2 conceded per game; AD Marco 09 averaged 0.6 scored and 0.4 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : draw or AD Marco 09 and -3.5 goals (goal line signal: under 3.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
3.80	3.09	1.95

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.73	1.20	1.29

Draw no bet

1	2
2.70	1.40

Both teams to score

Yes	No
2.01	1.68

1st half

1	X	2
4.49	1.97	2.64

2nd half

1	X	2
4.10	2.22	2.36

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	6.33	16.2	28.0
HT X	7.80	4.43	4.77
HT 2	43.0	16.5	3.18

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.60	6.80	1.71

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.08	6.32
1.5	1.42	2.59
2.5	2.33	1.53
3.5	4.20	1.16
4.5	8.35	1.06
5.5	26.0	1.01

9 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.08	5.70
1.25	1.26	3.36
1.75	1.54	2.29
2	1.74	1.95
2.25	2.03	1.68
2.75	2.76	1.37
3	3.50	1.22
3.25	3.90	1.18
4	8.00	1.02

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.25	3.19	1.28
0	2.70	1.40
+0.25	2.04	1.70
+0.5	1.83	1.95
+0.75	1.55	2.27
+1	1.33	2.94

7 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	9.00	1.01
-1	7.90	1.02
-0.75	4.80	1.12
+1.25	1.26	3.37
+1.5	1.19	3.82
+2	1.03	7.60
+2.5	1.01	8.50

Next Liga 3 matches

30 Oct	Fafe – Pacos Ferreira
31 Oct	Leça – Varzim
31 Oct	Mafra – Louletano
31 Oct	Oliveirense – CF Os Belenenses
1 Nov	SC Covilha – Caldas
1 Nov	Lusitano Évora 1911 – Vitória de Sernache

All Liga 3 fixtures and the table

Latest Liga 3 results

25 Oct	União Santarém 2-1 Vitória de Sernache
25 Oct	Varzim 2-4 Guimaraes B
25 Oct	Vianense 1-3 São João Ver
25 Oct	CF Os Belenenses 1-1 SC Covilha
25 Oct	Louletano 2-2 Atlético CP
25 Oct	AD Marco 09 0-0 Fafe