Football Odds Analysis & Predictions
For every upcoming match we compare the win probabilities from a statistical model with the probabilities implied by bookmaker odds. Where the model rates an outcome higher than the market, there is potential value — where it rates it lower, the price may be too short.
New to this? See how our data and model work.
Upcoming analysed matches
(24)Model favours Motor Lublin win at 45% vs 64.5% implied.
Read full analysisModel favours Cracovia Krakow win at 33% vs 37.5% implied.
Read full analysisModel favours Draw at 45% vs 25.9% implied(+19.1 value).
Read full analysisModel favours Draw at 45% vs 26.2% implied(+18.8 value).
Read full analysisModel favours Vitesse win at 33% vs 46.7% implied.
Read full analysisModel favours Draw at 45% vs 17.9% implied(+27.1 value).
Read full analysisModel favours Draw at 45% vs 22.2% implied(+22.8 value).
Read full analysisModel favours Wiener SC win at 45% vs 14% implied(+31 value).
Read full analysisModel favours Draw at 45% vs 29% implied(+16 value).
Read full analysisModel favours Draw at 45% vs 27.5% implied(+17.5 value).
Read full analysisModel favours Draw at 50% vs 14.6% implied(+35.4 value).
Read full analysisModel favours Draw at 50% vs 23.6% implied(+26.4 value).
Read full analysisModel favours Brann win at 45% vs 64.9% implied.
Read full analysisModel favours Draw at 45% vs 32.7% implied(+12.3 value).
Read full analysisModel favours Sturm Graz II win at 45% vs 16% implied(+29 value).
Read full analysisModel favours FC Astana win at 45% vs 62.1% implied.
Read full analysisModel favours Lokomotiv win at 45% vs 81.3% implied.
Read full analysisModel favours CSKA Moskva U19 win at 45% vs 78.7% implied.
Read full analysisModel favours Spartak Moskva U19 win at 35% vs 73.5% implied.
Read full analysisModel favours Zenit U19 win at 50% vs 75.2% implied.
Read full analysisModel favours Draw at 50% vs 16.3% implied(+33.7 value).
Read full analysisModel favours Rubin win at 35% vs 56.2% implied.
Read full analysisModel favours Draw at 45% vs 31.7% implied(+13.3 value).
Read full analysisModel favours Draw at 45% vs 25.4% implied(+19.6 value).
Read full analysisHow to read an odds analysis
Model probability vs implied probability
Every set of decimal odds carries an implied probability — the break-even chance an outcome needs for the price to be fair, worked out as 100 divided by the odds. Odds of 2.50, for example, imply a 40% chance. Our model probability is an independent statistical estimate of the same outcome. Reading an odds analysis means putting those two numbers side by side: a model probability meaningfully above the implied figure is the signal value bettors look for.
The 1X2 probability bar
The three-part bar on each match splits 100% across a home win (1), the draw (X) and an away win (2) exactly as the model sees it. A lopsided bar points to a clear favourite; an even bar flags a genuinely close game where the draw is often underrated by the market.
The comparison factors
On each match page the analysis breaks the prediction down into the factors that drive it — recent form, attacking and defensive strength, head-to-head record and expected goals. Seeing which factors favour which side explains why the model leans the way it does, rather than asking you to trust a single number.
Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data and are for analysis only — not betting advice. Odds are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.
Odds analysis FAQ
What is odds analysis?
Odds analysis compares the probability a statistical model assigns to each match outcome with the probability implied by bookmaker odds. When the model rates an outcome higher than the market implies, that gap points to potential value; when it rates it lower, the market may be overpricing it.
How does OddsFilter generate its predictions?
Each prediction is derived from an API-Football statistical model that weighs recent form, attacking and defensive strength, head-to-head history and goal expectancy. We convert those signals into win, draw and loss percentages and show them next to the average 1X2 odds so you can see where the model and the market disagree.
What does implied probability mean?
Implied probability is the chance an outcome must have for the odds to be a fair bet, calculated as 100 divided by the decimal odds. Odds of 2.00 imply a 50% chance. Comparing implied probability with the model probability is the core of value-focused odds analysis.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. The probabilities are statistical estimates from historical data and are provided for analysis and research only. Odds move until kickoff and no outcome is guaranteed. Always gamble responsibly and never stake more than you can afford to lose.