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Football Odds Analysis & Predictions
For every upcoming match we compare the win probabilities from a statistical model with the probabilities implied by bookmaker odds. Where the model rates an outcome higher than the market, there is potential value — where it rates it lower, the price may be too short.
New to this? See how our data and model work.
Upcoming analysed matches
(24)Liga MX U21Today15:00UTC
Necaxa U21
vs
Club Leon U21
vsClub Leon U2135%35%30%
Model favours Necaxa U21 win at 35% vs 42.7% implied.
Read full analysisA LygaToday15:00UTC
Šiauliai
vs
Panevėžys
vsPanevėžys10%45%45%
Model favours Draw at 45% vs 28.6% implied(+16.4 value).
Read full analysisPremier LeagueToday15:00UTC
Polessya
vs
Zorya Luhansk
vsZorya Luhansk50%50%0%
Model favours Polessya win at 50% vs 68.5% implied.
Read full analysisVeikkausliigaToday15:00UTC
Gnistan
vs
Ilves
vsIlves10%45%45%
Model favours Draw at 45% vs 28.5% implied(+16.5 value).
Read full analysis2. ligaToday15:00UTC
Slovan Bratislava II
vs
Humenné
vsHumenné10%45%45%
Model favours Draw at 45% vs 28.7% implied(+16.3 value).
Read full analysisCupToday15:00UTC
Anagennisi Karditsas
vs
Aris Thessalonikis
vsAris Thessalonikis0%50%50%
Model favours Draw at 50% vs 10.9% implied(+39.1 value).
Read full analysisSecond LeagueToday15:00UTC
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
vs
CSKA Sofia II
vsCSKA Sofia II45%45%10%
Model favours Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win at 45% vs 49.8% implied.
Read full analysisCupToday15:00UTC
Auda
vs
Grobiņa
vsGrobiņa45%45%10%
Model favours Auda win at 45% vs 71.4% implied.
Read full analysisLiga MX U21Today15:15UTC
Pachuca U21
vs
Puebla U21
vsPuebla U2135%35%30%
Model favours Pachuca U21 win at 35% vs 59.9% implied.
Read full analysisLiga IToday15:30UTC
Universitatea Cluj
vs
Uta Arad
vsUta Arad45%45%10%
Model favours Universitatea Cluj win at 45% vs 51% implied.
Read full analysisNB IToday15:30UTC
Zalaegerszegi TE
vs
Ferencvarosi TC
vsFerencvarosi TC35%35%30%
Model favours Zalaegerszegi TE win at 35% vs 16.5% implied(+18.5 value).
Read full analysisPremyer LiqaToday15:30UTC
Qarabag
vs
Şamaxı FK
vsŞamaxı FK50%50%0%
Model favours Qarabag win at 50% vs 68% implied.
Read full analysisA LygaToday15:45UTC
Džiugas Telšiai
vs
Suduva Marijampole
vsSuduva Marijampole10%45%45%
Model favours Draw at 45% vs 30.6% implied(+14.4 value).
Read full analysis3. Division - Girone 3Today16:00UTC
Stord
vs
Åsane II
vsÅsane II45%45%10%
Model favours Stord win at 45% vs 39.8% implied(+5.2 value).
Read full analysisCupToday16:00UTC
Zakynthos
vs
Kifisia
vsKifisia0%50%50%
Model favours Draw at 50% vs 22.5% implied(+27.5 value).
Read full analysisCZEFNLToday16:00UTC
Třinec
vs
Ústí nad Labem
vsÚstí nad Labem10%45%45%
Model favours Draw at 45% vs 28.2% implied(+16.8 value).
Read full analysisCoppa ItaliaToday16:00UTC
Pisa
vs
Empoli
vsEmpoli0%50%50%
Model favours Draw at 50% vs 29.3% implied(+20.7 value).
Read full analysisFirst LeagueToday16:00UTC
Spartak Varna
vs
Septemvri Sofia
vsSeptemvri Sofia45%45%10%
Model favours Spartak Varna win at 45% vs 48.8% implied.
Read full analysisEsiliiga AToday16:00UTC
Nõmme United II
vs
Nõmme Kalju II
vsNõmme Kalju II45%45%10%
Model favours Nõmme United II win at 45% vs 67.6% implied.
Read full analysisErovnuli LigaToday16:00UTC
Gagra
vs
Spaeri
vsSpaeri45%45%10%
Model favours Gagra win at 45% vs 44.6% implied(+0.4 value).
Read full analysisPremier LeagueToday16:00UTC
FC Noah
vs
Alashkert
vsAlashkert10%45%45%
Model favours Draw at 45% vs 27.1% implied(+17.9 value).
Read full analysisPremier LeagueToday16:00UTC
Birkirkara
vs
Gzira United
vsGzira United33%33%33%
Model favours Birkirkara win at 33% vs 45.7% implied.
Read full analysisSAUKing's CupToday16:00UTC
Al Anwar
vs
Al-Ahli Jeddah
vsAl-Ahli Jeddah33%33%33%
Model favours Al Anwar win at 33% vs 5.6% implied(+27.4 value).
Read full analysis3. Division - Girone 4Today16:00UTC
Staal Jørpeland
vs
Haugesund II
vsHaugesund II35%35%30%
Model favours Staal Jørpeland win at 35% vs 29.9% implied(+5.1 value).
Read full analysisHow to read an odds analysis
Model probability vs implied probability
Every set of decimal odds carries an implied probability — the break-even chance an outcome needs for the price to be fair, worked out as 100 divided by the odds. Odds of 2.50, for example, imply a 40% chance. Our model probability is an independent statistical estimate of the same outcome. Reading an odds analysis means putting those two numbers side by side: a model probability meaningfully above the implied figure is the signal value bettors look for.
The 1X2 probability bar
The three-part bar on each match splits 100% across a home win (1), the draw (X) and an away win (2) exactly as the model sees it. A lopsided bar points to a clear favourite; an even bar flags a genuinely close game where the draw is often underrated by the market.
The comparison factors
On each match page the analysis breaks the prediction down into the factors that drive it — recent form, attacking and defensive strength, head-to-head record and expected goals. Seeing which factors favour which side explains why the model leans the way it does, rather than asking you to trust a single number.
Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data and are for analysis only — not betting advice. Odds are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.
Odds analysis FAQ
What is odds analysis?
Odds analysis compares the probability a statistical model assigns to each match outcome with the probability implied by bookmaker odds. When the model rates an outcome higher than the market implies, that gap points to potential value; when it rates it lower, the market may be overpricing it.
How does OddsFilter generate its predictions?
Each prediction is derived from a statistical model that weighs recent form, attacking and defensive strength, head-to-head history and goal expectancy. We convert those signals into win, draw and loss percentages and show them next to the average 1X2 odds so you can see where the model and the market disagree.
What does implied probability mean?
Implied probability is the chance an outcome must have for the odds to be a fair bet, calculated as 100 divided by the decimal odds. Odds of 2.00 imply a 50% chance. Comparing implied probability with the model probability is the core of value-focused odds analysis.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. The probabilities are statistical estimates from historical data and are provided for analysis and research only. Odds move until kickoff and no outcome is guaranteed. Always gamble responsibly and never stake more than you can afford to lose.