AD Marco 09 vs Paredes• Liga 3, Portugal

#20.6:0.420:00Tomorrow2.4:1.0#1

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

13.77PINX3.25DAF22.05PINMargin at best6.1%Books7Markets40Rating39 · 61Exp. goals L52.2

Price board · 1X2captured 6 Nov 05:34 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	3.77	3.15	2.05	7.1%
Dafabet	3.50	3.30	2.03	8.1%
Betano	3.55	3.15	2.05	8.7%
Bet365	3.60	3.20	1.95	10.3%
1xBet	3.50	3.12	1.99	10.9%
Marathonbet	3.40	3.12	1.97	12.2%
William Hill	3.60	2.90	2.00	12.3%
Best of all books	3.77	3.30	2.05	5.6%
Average	3.56	3.13	2.01	9.9%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

AD Marco 09Paredes

Last 10#2Table position#11.75Points per game2.387Form pts · last 5130.6Goals for · last 52.40.4Goals against · last 51.020Attack rating8071Defence rating2938Form rating6215H2H rating8571Goals model2939Overall rating61

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 5 Nov 15:01 UTC

AD Marco 09

5W 2D 3L · goals 8:7 · per match 0.8 for, 0.7 against

31 Oct	A	Trofense	2-0	W
25 Oct	H	Fafe	0-0	D
17 Oct	A	Farense	0-3	L
10 Oct	A	Leça	0-2	L
20 Sep	H	Maia Lidador	1-0	W
12 Sep	H	Guimaraes B	1-0	W
6 Sep	A	São João Ver	0-0	D
30 Aug	A	Régua	1-0	W
23 Aug	H	Vianense	2-0	W
16 Aug	A	Varzim	1-2	L

Paredes

8W 1D 1L · goals 23:9 · per match 2.3 for, 0.9 against

1 Nov	H	São João Ver	2-1	W
24 Oct	H	Trofense	4-0	W
18 Oct	H	Famalicao	1-0	W
10 Oct	A	Vianense	3-3	D
20 Sep	H	Maria da Fonte	5-1	W
13 Sep	H	Fafe	2-1	W
5 Sep	A	Varzim	1-0	W
30 Aug	A	Ermesinde	3-1	W
23 Aug	H	Leça	1-2	L
15 Aug	A	Pacos Ferreira	1-0	W

Head to head

2AD Marco 09 wins

3draws

3Paredes wins

8 meetings · goals 5:9 · last 8: 2W 3D 3L for AD Marco 09

3 May 2026Liga 3	Liga 3	Paredes2-2AD Marco 09
14 Feb 2026Liga 3	Liga 3	AD Marco 090-2Paredes
11 Jan 2026Liga 3	Liga 3	AD Marco 090-3Paredes
5 Oct 2025Liga 3	Liga 3	Paredes2-0AD Marco 09
1 Jun 2025Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round	Paredes0-0AD Marco 09
11 May 2025Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round	AD Marco 090-0Paredes
24 Mar 2024Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B	Paredes0-2AD Marco 09
10 Dec 2023Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B	AD Marco 091-0Paredes

Liga 3 tableLiga 3updated 5 Nov 15:01 UTC

In the Liga 3 table, AD Marco 09 sit 2nd with 14 points from 8 games, while Paredes are 1st with 19 points from 8.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Paredes	8	6	1	1	17:8	+9	19
1	CF Os Belenenses	8	6	2	0	18:6	+12	20
2	AD Marco 09	8	4	2	2	8:5	+3	14
2	Atlético CP	8	5	2	1	17:7	+10	17
3	Fafe	8	3	4	1	13:7	+6	13
3	Mafra	8	3	3	2	16:11	+5	12
4	Leça	8	4	1	3	11:9	+2	13
4	Caldas	8	3	2	3	10:12	-2	11
5	Vianense	8	2	4	2	12:13	-1	10
5	Oliveirense	8	2	4	2	10:11	-1	10
6	Guimaraes B	8	2	3	3	10:10	0	9
6	União Santarém	8	3	1	4	9:14	-5	10
7	São João Ver	8	2	3	3	9:10	-1	9
7	Louletano	8	2	2	4	10:12	-2	8
8	Varzim	8	3	0	5	11:13	-2	9
8	SC Covilha	8	1	4	3	5:8	-3	7
9	Pacos Ferreira	8	2	2	4	8:13	-5	8
9	Vitória de Sernache	8	2	1	5	6:15	-9	7
10	Trofense	8	1	2	5	4:15	-11	5
10	Lusitano Évora 1911	8	1	3	4	6:11	-5	6

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg126%3.56X29%3.12245%2.00

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 6.1% margin.

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	2.20	1.65	6.1%
Pinnacle	2.27	1.61	6.2%
Betano	2.12	1.62	8.9%
1xBet	2.13	1.61	9.1%
Marathonbet	2.13	1.61	9.1%
Best of all books	2.27	1.65	4.7%
Average	2.17	1.62	7.8%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	1.91	1.80	7.9%
1xBet	1.88	1.79	9.1%
Betano	1.88	1.78	9.4%
Marathonbet	1.88	1.76	10.0%
Best of all books	1.91	1.80	7.9%
Average	1.89	1.78	9.1%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

AD Marco 09 10%Draw 45%Paredes 45%

The statistical model rates AD Marco 09 at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Paredes at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 3.56 | 3.12 | 2.00, which imply roughly 32.1% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Liga 3 table: AD Marco 09 are 2nd (14 pts, 8-5 goals), Paredes 1st (19 pts, 17-8).

Over their last five matches, AD Marco 09 averaged 0.6 goals scored and 0.4 conceded per game; Paredes averaged 2.4 scored and 1 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Paredes and -3.5 goals (goal line signal: under 3.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
3.56	3.13	2.01

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.68	1.23	1.29

Draw no bet

1	2
2.55	1.44

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.89	1.78

1st half

1	X	2
4.23	2.01	2.63

2nd half

1	X	2
3.81	2.28	2.41

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	5.97	16.0	26.7
HT X	7.53	4.63	4.95
HT 2	37.0	15.8	3.27

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.47	7.60	1.73

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.07	6.65
1.5	1.36	2.78
2.5	2.17	1.62
3.5	3.77	1.20
4.5	7.35	1.07
5.5	21.0	1.01

9 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.06	6.35
1.25	1.20	3.70
1.75	1.46	2.45
2	1.63	2.12
2.25	1.90	1.80
2.75	2.52	1.44
3	3.18	1.28
3.25	3.50	1.22
4	7.00	1.04

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.25	2.98	1.33
0	2.55	1.44
+0.25	2.00	1.74
+0.5	1.77	2.02
+0.75	1.52	2.33
+1	1.31	3.04

7 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	8.10	1.02
-1	7.00	1.04
-0.75	4.40	1.14
+1.25	1.25	3.43
+1.5	1.18	3.90
+2	1.02	7.70
+2.5	1.01	8.60

Next Liga 3 matches

6 Nov	União Santarém – Mafra
6 Nov	CF Os Belenenses – Lusitano Évora 1911
7 Nov	Caldas – Oliveirense
7 Nov	São João Ver – Guimaraes B
7 Nov	Vianense – Leça
8 Nov	Louletano – SC Covilha

All Liga 3 fixtures and the table

Latest Liga 3 results

1 Nov	Paredes 2-1 São João Ver
1 Nov	Guimaraes B 2-2 Vianense
1 Nov	Lusitano Évora 1911 0-1 Vitória de Sernache
1 Nov	SC Covilha 0-1 Caldas
31 Oct	Oliveirense 1-2 CF Os Belenenses
31 Oct	Trofense 0-2 AD Marco 09