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Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major• FAW Championship, Wales

2.4:0.618:45Today1.4:1.4

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.30B365X5.80DAF28.751XBMargin at best5.6%Books8Markets47Rating63 · 37Exp. goals L52.9

Price board · 1X2captured 23 Oct 00:01 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
Dafabet1.275.808.208.2%
1xBet1.235.508.7510.9%
Betano1.285.207.2011.2%
Pinnacle1.255.747.2311.3%
Bet3651.305.256.5011.4%
William Hill1.255.008.5011.8%
Marathonbet1.225.508.3012.2%
Betfair1.255.008.0012.5%
Best of all books1.305.808.755.6%
Average1.265.377.8311.0%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Caerau (Ely)Llantwit Major
Last 1015Form pts · last 572.4Goals for · last 51.40.6Goals against · last 51.463Attack rating3770Defence rating3065Form rating3550H2H rating5079Goals model2163Overall rating37

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 21 Oct 03:01 UTC

Caerau (Ely)

7W 1D 2L · goals 25:14 · per match 2.5 for, 1.4 against

16 OctHllanelli AFC6-0W
10 OctAAberystwyth Town1-0W
2 OctHAfan Lido2-0W
26 SepACardiff Draconians3-1W
11 SepHllanelli AFC3-0W
31 AugHTreowen Stars3-2W
28 AugABaglan Dragons1-3L
21 AugHSwansea University1-5L
14 AugATrethomas Bluebirds4-2W
7 AugHYnyshir Albions1-1D

Llantwit Major

2W 2D 6L · goals 9:25 · per match 0.9 for, 2.5 against

17 OctATrefelin1-4L
10 OctHPontardawe Town1-1D
6 OctAPontypridd Town1-4L
2 OctACarmarthen Town2-1W
26 SepHllanelli AFC2-0W
12 SepATreowen Stars1-1D
22 AugAAberystwyth Town1-5L
15 AugHBaglan Dragons0-1L
7 AugAAfan Lido0-5L
1 AugHSwansea University0-3L

Head to head

3Caerau (Ely) wins
2draws
2Llantwit Major wins

7 meetings · goals 15:11 · last 7: 3W 2D 2L for Caerau (Ely)

28 Mar 2026FAW ChampionshipFAW ChampionshipLlantwit Major1-4Caerau (Ely)
12 Sep 2025FAW ChampionshipFAW ChampionshipCaerau (Ely)0-0Llantwit Major
5 Apr 2025FAW ChampionshipFAW ChampionshipLlantwit Major1-0Caerau (Ely)
7 Feb 2025FAW ChampionshipFAW ChampionshipCaerau (Ely)2-4Llantwit Major
2 Feb 2024FAW ChampionshipFAW ChampionshipCaerau (Ely)3-2Llantwit Major
30 Sep 2023FAW ChampionshipFAW ChampionshipLlantwit Major1-4Caerau (Ely)
12 Oct 2019FAW ChampionshipFAW ChampionshipCaerau (Ely)2-2Llantwit Major

FAW Championship tableNorthupdated 23 Oct 03:10 UTC

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Brickfield Rangers1190226:10+1627
2Newtown AFC1072118:3+1523
3Porthmadog1172218:11+723
4Mold Alexandra1163228:14+1421
5Bala Town1161422:20+219
6Caersws1053222:15+718
7Bangor City 1876 FC1153324:18+618
8Guilsfield1144316:14+216
9Buckley Town1143425:19+615
10Llanuwchllyn1142517:24-714
11Rhyl1125418:20-211
12Denbigh Town1131720:23-310
13Ruthin Town1123610:21-119
14Holyhead Hotspur1022612:19-78
15Gresford Athletic102176:22-167
16Penrhyncoch1101105:34-291

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg172%1.26X17%5.37212%7.84

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 5.6% margin.

1X2 since open average price

21 Oct 03:0022 Oct 23:001 1.26X 5.372 7.84
11.24 → 1.26 +1.6%X5.38 → 5.37 -0.2%28.50 → 7.84 -7.8%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
Bet3651.363.006.9%
1xBet1.332.8310.5%
Marathonbet1.332.8310.5%
Best of all books1.363.006.9%
Average1.342.899.3%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
1xBet1.662.059.0%
William Hill1.652.059.4%
Marathonbet1.662.0110.0%
Best of all books1.662.059.0%
Average1.662.049.5%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Caerau (Ely) 45%Draw 45%Llantwit Major 10%

The statistical model rates Caerau (Ely) at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Llantwit Major at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.26 | 5.37 | 7.84, which imply roughly 79.4% for a Caerau (Ely) win versus the model's 45%.

Over their last five matches, Caerau (Ely) averaged 2.4 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game; Llantwit Major averaged 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Caerau (Ely) or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
1.265.377.84

Double chance

1XX212
1.053.181.10

Draw no bet

12
1.115.35

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.662.04

1st half

1X2
1.642.796.70

2nd half

1X2
1.503.306.58

HT/FT

HT / FTFT 1FT XFT 2
HT 11.8020.552.0
HT X4.248.8516.7
HT 217.020.513.0

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
1.2722.03.47

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.0121.0
1.51.106.00
2.51.342.89
3.51.901.78
4.52.921.31
5.55.001.12
10 more lines
LineOverUnder
21.105.05
2.251.223.50
2.751.402.60
31.542.24
3.251.701.98
3.752.101.62
42.451.44
4.252.701.37
4.753.421.23
54.451.14

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-2.52.601.40
-2.252.361.48
-22.131.60
-1.751.881.82
-1.51.701.99
-1.251.522.29
6 more lines
LineHomeAway
-3.54.501.13
-33.861.18
-11.342.83
-0.751.273.15
-0.251.144.45
01.056.65

Next FAW Championship matches

23 OctNewport City – Pontypridd Town
23 Octllanelli AFC – Afan Lido
23 OctTrethomas Bluebirds – Cardiff Draconians
23 OctDenbigh Town – Gresford Athletic
24 OctCaersws – Guilsfield
24 OctPorthmadog – Brickfield Rangers

All FAW Championship fixtures and the table

Latest FAW Championship results

10 OctNewtown AFC 0-0 Bangor City 1876 FC
10 OctGuilsfield 0-2 Denbigh Town
10 OctBaglan Dragons 1-1 Pontypridd Town
10 OctCardiff Draconians 2-2 Carmarthen Town
10 OctAberystwyth Town 0-1 Caerau (Ely)
10 OctYnyshir Albions 6-2 llanelli AFC