Baglan Dragons vs 
Pontypridd Town• FAW Championship, Wales
Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction
Price board · 1X2captured 10 Oct 10:36 UTC
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dafabet | 2.80 | 3.65 | 2.21 | 8.4% |
| Betfair | 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.20 | 10.3% |
| Pinnacle | 2.84 | 3.45 | 2.16 | 10.5% |
| Betano | 2.72 | 3.55 | 2.18 | 10.8% |
| 1xBet | 2.78 | 3.50 | 2.16 | 10.8% |
| Marathonbet | 2.71 | 3.50 | 2.14 | 12.2% |
| Bet365 | 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.10 | 12.4% |
| Best of all books | 2.84 | 3.65 | 2.21 | 7.9% |
| Average | 2.75 | 3.55 | 2.16 | 10.7% |
Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.
Team comparison
Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.
Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 10 Oct 14:13 UTC
Baglan Dragons
5W 1D 4L · goals 11:11 · per match 1.1 for, 1.1 against
| 2 Oct | A | llanelli AFC | 2-1 | W |
| 25 Sep | H | Carmarthen Town | 1-2 | L |
| 12 Sep | A | Cardiff Draconians | 1-2 | L |
| 4 Sep | H | Afan Lido | 2-1 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | Caerphilly Athletic | 0-1 | L |
| 28 Aug | H | Caerau (Ely) | 3-1 | W |
| 21 Aug | A | Newport City | 1-0 | W |
| 15 Aug | A | Llantwit Major | 1-0 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | Swansea University | 0-3 | L |
| 31 Jul | A | Trethomas Bluebirds | 0-0 | D |
Pontypridd Town
6W 2D 2L · goals 24:17 · per match 2.4 for, 1.7 against
| 10 Oct | A | Baglan Dragons | 1-1 | D |
| 6 Oct | H | Llantwit Major | 4-1 | W |
| 3 Oct | H | Aberystwyth Town | 1-3 | L |
| 25 Sep | A | Caerphilly Athletic | 2-1 | W |
| 11 Sep | H | Afan Lido | 0-1 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | Swansea University | 4-4 | D |
| 21 Aug | H | Trethomas Bluebirds | 2-1 | W |
| 15 Aug | A | Cardiff Draconians | 4-1 | W |
| 7 Aug | H | Pontardawe Town | 3-2 | W |
| 1 Aug | A | Treowen Stars | 3-2 | W |
Head to head
4 meetings · goals 5:5 · last 4: 1W 1D 2L for Baglan Dragons
| 21 Feb 2026FAW Championship | FAW Championship | Pontypridd Town2-0Baglan Dragons |
| 27 Jul 2025FAW Championship | FAW Championship | Baglan Dragons3-0Pontypridd Town |
| 17 Jan 2025FAW Championship | FAW Championship | Pontypridd Town1-0Baglan Dragons |
| 26 Oct 2024FAW Championship | FAW Championship | Baglan Dragons2-2Pontypridd Town |
FAW Championship tableNorthupdated 21 Oct 03:01 UTC
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 26:10 | +16 | 27 |
| 2 | Newtown AFC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 18:3 | +15 | 23 |
| 3 | Porthmadog | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 18:11 | +7 | 23 |
| 4 | Mold Alexandra | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 28:14 | +14 | 21 |
| 5 | Bala Town | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 22:20 | +2 | 19 |
| 6 | Caersws | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 22:15 | +7 | 18 |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 24:18 | +6 | 18 |
| 8 | Guilsfield | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16:14 | +2 | 16 |
| 9 | Buckley Town | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 25:19 | +6 | 15 |
| 10 | Llanuwchllyn | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 17:24 | -7 | 14 |
| 11 | Rhyl | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 18:20 | -2 | 11 |
| 12 | Denbigh Town | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 20:23 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Ruthin Town | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10:21 | -11 | 9 |
| 14 | Holyhead Hotspur | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12:19 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 | Gresford Athletic | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6:22 | -16 | 7 |
| 16 | Penrhyncoch | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5:34 | -29 | 1 |
Market · 1X2
Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 7.9% margin.
1X2 since open average price
Over / Under 2.5
| Bookmaker | Over | Under | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 6.4% |
| Pinnacle | 1.66 | 2.12 | 7.4% |
| 1xBet | 1.66 | 2.05 | 9.0% |
| Marathonbet | 1.66 | 2.05 | 9.0% |
| Betano | 1.65 | 2.02 | 10.1% |
| Best of all books | 1.70 | 2.12 | 6.0% |
| Average | 1.67 | 2.07 | 8.4% |
Both teams to score
| Bookmaker | Yes | No | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.55 | 2.24 | 9.2% |
| Marathonbet | 1.55 | 2.20 | 10.0% |
| Best of all books | 1.55 | 2.24 | 9.2% |
| Average | 1.55 | 2.22 | 9.6% |
Odds Analysis & Prediction
The statistical model rated Baglan Dragons at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Pontypridd Town at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.75 | 3.55 | 2.16, which imply roughly 28.2% for the draw versus the model's 45%.
Over their last five matches, Baglan Dragons averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game; Pontypridd Town averaged 2.2 scored and 2 conceded.
Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Pontypridd Town and +1.5 goals (goal line signal: over 1.5 goals).
Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.
All markets average prices
Full time
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.75 | 3.55 | 2.16 |
Double chance
| 1X | X2 | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.56 | 1.36 | 1.23 |
Draw no bet
| 1 | 2 |
|---|---|
| 2.06 | 1.66 |
Both teams to score
| Yes | No |
|---|---|
| 1.55 | 2.22 |
1st half
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.29 | 2.26 | 2.72 |
First team to score
| Home | No Goal | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.07 | 14.3 | 1.79 |
Match goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 1.02 | 10.0 |
| 1.5 | 1.17 | 4.05 |
| 2.5 | 1.67 | 2.07 |
| 3.5 | 2.66 | 1.38 |
| 4.5 | 5.05 | 1.10 |
| 5.5 | 10.0 | 1.05 |
9 more lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.04 | 8.00 |
| 1.75 | 1.21 | 3.58 |
| 2 | 1.28 | 3.17 |
| 2.25 | 1.47 | 2.42 |
| 2.75 | 1.83 | 1.85 |
| 3 | 2.10 | 1.62 |
| 3.25 | 2.37 | 1.48 |
| 3.75 | 3.20 | 1.26 |
| 4 | 4.30 | 1.15 |
Asian handicap
| Line | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| -0.5 | 2.79 | 1.38 |
| -0.25 | 2.40 | 1.47 |
| 0 | 2.09 | 1.64 |
| +0.25 | 1.80 | 1.91 |
| +0.5 | 1.64 | 2.15 |
| +0.75 | 1.43 | 2.51 |
8 more lines
| Line | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 5.85 | 1.07 |
| -1 | 4.85 | 1.11 |
| -0.75 | 3.34 | 1.24 |
| +1 | 1.26 | 3.28 |
| +1.25 | 1.19 | 3.80 |
| +1.5 | 1.15 | 4.25 |
| +2 | 1.01 | 8.50 |
| +2.5 | 1.02 | 8.10 |
Next FAW Championship matches
| 23 Oct | llanelli AFC – Afan Lido |
| 23 Oct | Newport City – Pontypridd Town |
| 23 Oct | Denbigh Town – Gresford Athletic |
| 23 Oct | Caerau (Ely) – Llantwit Major |
| 23 Oct | Trethomas Bluebirds – Cardiff Draconians |