Aberystwyth Town vs 
Caerau (Ely)• FAW Championship, Wales
Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction
Price board · 1X2captured 10 Oct 06:42 UTC
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.06 | 3.46 | 3.02 | 10.6% |
| Best of all books | 2.06 | 3.46 | 3.02 | 10.6% |
| Average | 2.06 | 3.46 | 3.02 | 10.6% |
Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.
Team comparison
Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.
Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 10 Oct 14:13 UTC
Aberystwyth Town
6W 2D 2L · goals 23:11 · per match 2.3 for, 1.1 against
| 3 Oct | A | Pontypridd Town | 3-1 | W |
| 25 Sep | H | Swansea University | 0-0 | D |
| 12 Sep | A | Caerphilly Athletic | 3-2 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | llanelli AFC | 4-0 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | Pontardawe Town | 1-0 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | Llantwit Major | 5-1 | W |
| 8 Aug | H | Treowen Stars | 1-2 | L |
| 1 Aug | A | Afan Lido | 5-2 | W |
| 18 Apr | A | Ynyshir Albions | 0-0 | D |
| 11 Apr | A | Cwmbran Celtic | 1-3 | L |
Caerau (Ely)
7W 1D 2L · goals 25:14 · per match 2.5 for, 1.4 against
| 16 Oct | H | llanelli AFC | 6-0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Aberystwyth Town | 1-0 | W |
| 2 Oct | H | Afan Lido | 2-0 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Cardiff Draconians | 3-1 | W |
| 11 Sep | H | llanelli AFC | 3-0 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | Treowen Stars | 3-2 | W |
| 28 Aug | A | Baglan Dragons | 1-3 | L |
| 21 Aug | H | Swansea University | 1-5 | L |
| 14 Aug | A | Trethomas Bluebirds | 4-2 | W |
| 7 Aug | H | Ynyshir Albions | 1-1 | D |
Head to head
2 meetings · goals 0:5 · last 2: 0W 0D 2L for Aberystwyth Town
| 1 Mar 2026FAW Championship | FAW Championship | Aberystwyth Town0-4Caerau (Ely) |
| 20 Dec 2025FAW Championship | FAW Championship | Caerau (Ely)1-0Aberystwyth Town |
FAW Championship tableNorthupdated 21 Oct 03:01 UTC
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 26:10 | +16 | 27 |
| 2 | Newtown AFC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 18:3 | +15 | 23 |
| 3 | Porthmadog | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 18:11 | +7 | 23 |
| 4 | Mold Alexandra | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 28:14 | +14 | 21 |
| 5 | Bala Town | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 22:20 | +2 | 19 |
| 6 | Caersws | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 22:15 | +7 | 18 |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 24:18 | +6 | 18 |
| 8 | Guilsfield | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16:14 | +2 | 16 |
| 9 | Buckley Town | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 25:19 | +6 | 15 |
| 10 | Llanuwchllyn | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 17:24 | -7 | 14 |
| 11 | Rhyl | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 18:20 | -2 | 11 |
| 12 | Denbigh Town | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 20:23 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Ruthin Town | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10:21 | -11 | 9 |
| 14 | Holyhead Hotspur | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12:19 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 | Gresford Athletic | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6:22 | -16 | 7 |
| 16 | Penrhyncoch | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5:34 | -29 | 1 |
Market · 1X2
Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 10.6% margin.
1X2 since open average price
Over / Under 2.5
| Bookmaker | Over | Under | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.57 | 2.24 | 8.3% |
| Best of all books | 1.57 | 2.24 | 8.3% |
| Average | 1.57 | 2.24 | 8.3% |
Odds Analysis & Prediction
The statistical model rated Aberystwyth Town at 35% to win, the draw at 35% and Caerau (Ely) at 30% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.05 | 3.55 | 2.97, which imply roughly 48.8% for a Aberystwyth Town win versus the model's 35%.
Over their last five matches, Aberystwyth Town averaged 2.2 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game; Caerau (Ely) averaged 2.4 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Statistical advice: Double chance : Aberystwyth Town or draw.
Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.
All markets average prices
Full time
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.06 | 3.46 | 3.02 |
Match goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.25 | 1.41 | 2.68 |
| 2.5 | 1.57 | 2.24 |
| 2.75 | 1.72 | 2.03 |
| 3 | 1.95 | 1.81 |
| 3.25 | 2.19 | 1.62 |
| 3.5 | 2.41 | 1.50 |
| 3.75 | 2.79 | 1.38 |
Asian handicap
| Line | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| -1 | 2.91 | 1.35 |
| -0.75 | 2.35 | 1.52 |
| -0.5 | 2.05 | 1.70 |
| -0.25 | 1.82 | 1.93 |
| 0 | 1.56 | 2.31 |
| +0.25 | 1.42 | 2.63 |
| +0.5 | 1.34 | 2.96 |
Next FAW Championship matches
| 23 Oct | llanelli AFC – Afan Lido |
| 23 Oct | Newport City – Pontypridd Town |
| 23 Oct | Denbigh Town – Gresford Athletic |
| 23 Oct | Caerau (Ely) – Llantwit Major |
| 23 Oct | Trethomas Bluebirds – Cardiff Draconians |