Progreso vs Defensor Sporting• Primera División, Uruguay

#151.6:1.013:00Tomorrow · Parque Abraham Paladino, Montevideo1.6:2.0#14

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.68PINX3.25BFR22.64PINMargin at best6.0%Books10Markets75Rating52 · 48 levelExp. goals L53.1

Price board · 1X2captured 31 Oct 08:29 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	2.70	3.25	2.65	5.5%
Pinnacle	2.58	3.25	2.75	5.9%
BetVictor	2.55	3.13	2.60	9.6%
Betfair	2.55	3.20	2.55	9.7%
Betano	2.62	3.10	2.52	10.1%
William Hill	2.50	3.00	2.70	10.4%
1xBet	2.47	3.08	2.58	11.7%
Marathonbet	2.47	3.08	2.58	11.7%
Bet365	2.55	3.10	2.45	12.3%
SBO	2.43	2.88	2.43	17.0%
Best of all books	2.70	3.25	2.75	4.2%
Average	2.54	3.11	2.58	10.3%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

ProgresoDefensor Sporting

Last 10#15Table position#141.03Points per game1.0610Form pts · last 511.6Goals for · last 51.61.0Goals against · last 52.050Attack rating5067Defence rating3371Form rating2940H2H rating6044Goals model5652Overall rating48

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 29 Oct 00:03 UTC

Progreso

5W 1D 4L · goals 13:12 · per match 1.3 for, 1.2 against

25 Oct	A	Wanderers	1-0	W
17 Oct	H	Juventud	2-0	W
10 Oct	A	Penarol	1-1	D
3 Oct	A	Liverpool Montevideo	2-3	L
26 Sep	H	Racing Montevideo	2-1	W
19 Sep	A	Boston River	2-1	W
16 Sep	H	Club Nacional	0-1	L
13 Sep	H	Cerro	1-3	L
7 Sep	A	Albion FC	1-0	W
3 Sep	A	Albion FC	1-2	L

Defensor Sporting

2W 3D 5L · goals 13:16 · per match 1.3 for, 1.6 against

24 Oct	H	Racing Montevideo	3-3	D
17 Oct	A	Boston River	0-1	L
10 Oct	H	Cerro	2-3	L
3 Oct	A	Albion FC	2-3	L
30 Sep	H	Plaza Colonia	0-1	L
27 Sep	H	Danubio	1-0	W
20 Sep	A	Club Nacional	2-3	L
13 Sep	H	Deportivo Maldonado	1-0	W
9 Sep	A	Cerro Largo	1-1	D
6 Sep	A	Central Espanol	1-1	D

Head to head

4Progreso wins

6draws

8Defensor Sporting wins

18 meetings · goals 22:33 · last 10: 1W 4D 5L for Progreso

27 Apr 2026Primera División	Primera División	Defensor Sporting1-0Progreso
12 Jan 2026Copa De La Liga Auf	Copa De La Liga Auf	Defensor Sporting0-0Progreso
19 Oct 2025Primera División - Clausura	Primera División - Clausura	Progreso2-3Defensor Sporting
20 Apr 2025Primera División - Apertura	Primera División - Apertura	Defensor Sporting1-2Progreso
14 Nov 2024Primera División - Clausura	Primera División - Clausura	Defensor Sporting3-0Progreso
15 Jun 2024Primera División - Apertura	Primera División - Apertura	Defensor Sporting1-1Progreso
12 May 2024Primera División - Apertura	Primera División - Apertura	Progreso1-4Defensor Sporting
3 Nov 2022Copa Uruguay	Copa Uruguay	Defensor Sporting3-1Progreso
26 Oct 2022Copa Uruguay	Copa Uruguay	Progreso1-1Defensor Sporting
11 Feb 2021Primera División - Clausura	Primera División - Clausura	Progreso3-3Defensor Sporting

Primera División tablePrimera: Tabla Anualupdated 31 Oct 00:30 UTC

In the Primera División table, Progreso sit 15th with 35 points from 34 games, while Defensor Sporting are 14th with 36 points from 34.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Penarol	34	19	8	7	51:27	+24	64
2	Deportivo Maldonado	34	18	8	8	54:32	+22	62
3	Atletico Torque	34	18	6	10	57:40	+17	60
4	Club Nacional	34	18	4	12	51:41	+10	58
5	Racing Montevideo	34	15	12	7	42:30	+12	57
6	Liverpool Montevideo	34	15	11	8	45:31	+14	56
7	Wanderers	34	14	8	12	41:43	-2	50
8	Albion FC	34	13	7	14	47:44	+3	46
9	Juventud	34	10	11	13	37:41	-4	41
10	Central Espanol	34	10	8	16	33:47	-14	38
11	Cerro Largo	34	9	10	15	32:38	-6	37
12	Boston River	34	10	7	17	33:45	-12	37
13	Cerro	34	10	7	17	28:51	-23	37
14	Defensor Sporting	34	8	12	14	33:43	-10	36
15	Progreso	34	10	5	19	31:47	-16	35
16	Danubio	34	6	14	14	28:43	-15	32

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg135%2.57X29%3.12236%2.56

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 6.0% margin.

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Betfair	2.10	1.73	5.4%
Pinnacle	2.12	1.71	5.6%
Bet365	2.10	1.70	6.4%
Betano	2.07	1.72	6.4%
1xBet	2.04	1.67	8.9%
Marathonbet	2.04	1.67	8.9%
BetVictor	2.02	1.68	9.0%
Best of all books	2.12	1.73	5.0%
Average	2.07	1.70	7.2%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	1.73	2.00	7.8%
Bet365	1.80	1.91	7.9%
William Hill	1.80	1.91	7.9%
Betano	1.78	1.93	8.0%
BetVictor	1.80	1.90	8.2%
1xBet	1.80	1.89	8.5%
Marathonbet	1.80	1.86	9.3%
Best of all books	1.80	2.00	5.6%
Average	1.79	1.91	8.2%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Progreso 35%Draw 35%Defensor Sporting 30%

The statistical model rates Progreso at 35% to win, the draw at 35% and Defensor Sporting at 30% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.57 | 3.12 | 2.56, which imply roughly 38.9% for a Progreso win versus the model's 35%.

Form context from the Primera División table: Progreso are 15th (35 pts, 31-47 goals), Defensor Sporting 14th (36 pts, 33-43).

Over their last five matches, Progreso averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1 conceded per game; Defensor Sporting averaged 1.6 scored and 2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Progreso or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.54	3.11	2.58

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.42	1.42	1.31

Draw no bet

1	2
1.85	1.85

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.79	1.91

1st half

1	X	2
3.21	2.04	3.26

2nd half

1	X	2
2.89	2.33	2.95

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	4.27	13.9	28.8
HT X	5.93	4.68	5.98
HT 2	29.0	13.8	4.30

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.00	8.60	2.01

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.05	8.33
1.5	1.33	3.06
2.5	2.07	1.70
3.5	3.67	1.24
4.5	7.32	1.06
5.5	16.3	1.02
6.5	41.0	–

12 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.04	7.10
1	1.05	6.45
1.25	1.19	3.84
1.75	1.42	2.61
2	1.55	2.27
2.25	1.81	1.89
2.75	2.37	1.51
3	2.88	1.32
3.25	3.21	1.27
3.75	4.46	1.14
4	6.15	1.06
4.25	6.45	1.05

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.75	3.03	1.33
-0.5	2.55	1.48
-0.25	2.16	1.62
0	1.83	1.89
+0.25	1.58	2.24
+0.5	1.47	2.61

10 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2	9.60	1.01
-1.75	6.55	1.05
-1.5	5.20	1.12
-1.25	4.77	1.14
-1	4.29	1.18
+0.75	1.30	3.23
+1	1.16	4.60
+1.25	1.13	5.02
+1.5	1.11	5.45
+1.75	1.06	6.97

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
5.5	1.01	7.26
6.5	1.17	4.29
7.5	1.34	2.90
8.5	1.65	2.12
9.5	2.06	1.69
10.5	2.66	1.42
11.5	3.53	1.21
12.5	5.27	1.08

23 more lines

Line	Over	Under
5	1.03	5.95
5.75	1.02	6.96
6	1.01	7.12
6.25	1.07	5.36
6.75	1.13	4.36
7	1.15	4.13
7.25	1.23	3.42
7.75	1.34	2.82
8	1.40	2.68
8.25	1.50	2.38
8.75	1.67	2.07
9	1.77	1.96
9.25	1.88	1.82
9.75	2.12	1.63
10	2.32	1.54
10.25	2.44	1.47
10.75	2.84	1.34
11	3.22	1.26
11.25	3.39	1.23
11.75	4.08	1.15
12	4.88	1.10
12.25	5.07	1.08
13	5.87	1.04

Next Primera División matches

31 Oct	Racing Montevideo – Cerro Largo
31 Oct	Cerro – Central Espanol
31 Oct	Penarol – Wanderers
1 Nov	Boston River – Atletico Torque
1 Nov	Liverpool Montevideo – Juventud
2 Nov	Albion FC – Deportivo Maldonado

All Primera División fixtures and the table

Latest Primera División results

25 Oct	Club Nacional 0-1 Liverpool Montevideo
25 Oct	Cerro Largo 2-0 Boston River
25 Oct	Atletico Torque 3-1 Cerro
25 Oct	Wanderers 0-1 Progreso
24 Oct	Deportivo Maldonado 2-1 Danubio
24 Oct	Defensor Sporting 3-3 Racing Montevideo