União Santarém vs Vitória de Sernache• Liga 3, Portugal

#41.2:1.62-1FT25/10 · Campo Cha das Padeiras, Santarem0.8:1.6#10

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.12BTNX3.25DAF23.45DAFMargin at best6.9%Books9Markets44Rating74 · 26Exp. goals L52.6

Price board · 1X2captured 25 Oct 18:00 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	2.11	3.24	3.37	7.9%
Dafabet	2.07	3.25	3.45	8.1%
Betano	2.12	3.15	3.35	8.8%
Bet365	2.05	3.10	3.40	10.5%
1xBet	2.03	3.15	3.34	10.9%
William Hill	2.10	3.00	3.30	11.3%
Betfair	2.05	3.10	3.30	11.3%
Marathonbet	2.01	3.15	3.25	12.3%
SBO	2.03	2.96	3.12	15.1%
Best of all books	2.12	3.25	3.45	6.9%
Average	2.06	3.12	3.32	10.6%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

União SantarémVitória de Sernache

Last 10#4Table position#101.43Points per game0.579Form pts · last 591.2Goals for · last 50.81.6Goals against · last 51.660Attack rating4050Defence rating5064Form rating3691H2H rating988Goals model1274Overall rating26

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 25 Oct 12:41 UTC

União Santarém

3W 3D 4L · goals 15:15 · per match 1.5 for, 1.5 against

14 Oct	H	GIL Vicente	2-3	L
9 Oct	H	Lusitano Évora 1911	3-0	W
20 Sep	H	Merelinense	5-0	W
12 Sep	A	Louletano	2-1	W
4 Sep	H	Caldas	0-1	L
22 Aug	A	CF Os Belenenses	0-5	L
14 Aug	H	Oliveirense	1-1	D
8 Aug	A	SC Covilha	0-2	L
31 Jul	H	Academica	0-0	D
16 May	H	Varzim	2-2	D

Vitória de Sernache

4W 1D 5L · goals 11:16 · per match 1.1 for, 1.6 against

25 Oct	A	União Santarém	1-2	L
18 Oct	A	Brito	1-0	W
10 Oct	H	Louletano	1-0	W
19 Sep	H	Varzim	2-1	W
13 Sep	A	Caldas	0-2	L
6 Sep	H	CF Os Belenenses	1-3	L
30 Aug	A	Nazarenos	3-0	W
23 Aug	A	Oliveirense	2-3	L
16 Aug	H	SC Covilha	0-0	D
8 Aug	A	Mafra	0-5	L

Head to head

3União Santarém wins

0draws

0Vitória de Sernache wins

3 meetings · goals 8:1 · last 3: 3W 0D 0L for União Santarém

7 Apr 2024Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C	União Santarém3-0Vitória de Sernache
17 Dec 2023Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C	Vitória de Sernache0-2União Santarém
1 Dec 2019Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C	União Santarém3-1Vitória de Sernache

Liga 3 tableLiga 3updated 29 Oct 19:31 UTC

In the Liga 3 table, União Santarém sit 4th with 10 points from 7 games, while Vitória de Sernache are 10th with 4 points from 7.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Paredes	7	5	1	1	15:7	+8	16
1	CF Os Belenenses	7	5	2	0	16:5	+11	17
2	AD Marco 09	7	3	2	2	6:5	+1	11
2	Atlético CP	7	4	2	1	14:6	+8	14
3	Fafe	7	2	4	1	10:6	+4	10
3	Oliveirense	7	2	4	1	9:9	0	10
4	Leça	7	3	1	3	9:9	0	10
4	União Santarém	7	3	1	3	8:11	-3	10
5	São João Ver	7	2	3	2	8:8	0	9
5	Mafra	7	2	3	2	14:10	+4	9
6	Vianense	7	2	3	2	10:11	-1	9
6	Louletano	7	2	2	3	9:10	-1	8
7	Varzim	7	3	0	4	11:11	0	9
7	Caldas	7	2	2	3	9:12	-3	8
8	Pacos Ferreira	7	2	2	3	7:10	-3	8
8	SC Covilha	7	1	4	2	5:7	-2	7
9	Guimaraes B	7	2	2	3	8:8	0	8
9	Lusitano Évora 1911	7	1	3	3	6:10	-4	6
10	Trofense	7	1	2	4	4:13	-9	5
10	Vitória de Sernache	7	1	1	5	5:15	-10	4

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg144%2.06X29%3.12227%3.32

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 6.9% margin.

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	2.20	1.65	6.1%
Pinnacle	2.23	1.63	6.2%
Betano	2.12	1.65	7.8%
1xBet	2.13	1.61	9.1%
Marathonbet	2.13	1.61	9.1%
Best of all books	2.23	1.65	5.4%
Average	2.16	1.63	7.6%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	1.91	1.80	7.9%
1xBet	1.87	1.80	9.0%
Betano	1.87	1.80	9.0%
Marathonbet	1.87	1.77	10.0%
Best of all books	1.91	1.80	7.9%
Average	1.88	1.79	9.0%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

União Santarém 45%Draw 45%Vitória de Sernache 10%

The statistical model rated União Santarém at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Vitória de Sernache at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.06 | 3.12 | 3.32, which imply roughly 48.5% for a União Santarém win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Liga 3 table: União Santarém are 4th (10 pts, 8-11 goals), Vitória de Sernache 10th (4 pts, 5-15).

Over their last five matches, União Santarém averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game; Vitória de Sernache averaged 0.8 scored and 1.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Winner : União Santarém.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.06	3.12	3.32

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.25	1.63	1.28

Draw no bet

1	2
1.51	2.41

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.88	1.79

1st half

1	X	2
2.71	2.01	3.98

2nd half

1	X	2
2.46	2.27	3.68

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	3.36	14.5	36.9
HT X	5.10	4.65	7.19
HT 2	27.7	15.4	5.58

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.77	7.70	2.38

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.06	6.65
1.5	1.35	2.82
2.5	2.16	1.63
3.5	3.82	1.19
4.5	7.55	1.07
5.5	21.0	1.01

9 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.04	6.80
1.25	1.19	3.82
1.75	1.45	2.48
2	1.61	2.14
2.25	1.91	1.81
2.75	2.51	1.44
3	3.20	1.28
3.25	3.50	1.22
4	7.40	1.03

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1	3.19	1.30
-0.75	2.43	1.49
-0.5	2.09	1.70
-0.25	1.80	1.94
0	1.50	2.42
+0.25	1.37	2.83

10 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	8.35	1.02
-2	8.70	1.01
-1.75	5.00	1.17
-1.5	4.07	1.19
-1.25	3.51	1.25
+0.5	1.31	3.37
+0.75	1.17	4.25
+1	1.07	6.65
+1.25	1.11	6.60
+1.5	1.02	8.10

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
9.5	1.74	2.01
10	1.95	1.85

Next Liga 3 matches

30 Oct	Fafe – Pacos Ferreira
31 Oct	Leça – Varzim
31 Oct	Mafra – Louletano
31 Oct	Trofense – AD Marco 09
31 Oct	Oliveirense – CF Os Belenenses
1 Nov	SC Covilha – Caldas

All Liga 3 fixtures and the table

Latest Liga 3 results

25 Oct	Varzim 2-4 Guimaraes B
25 Oct	Vianense 1-3 São João Ver
25 Oct	CF Os Belenenses 1-1 SC Covilha
25 Oct	Louletano 2-2 Atlético CP
25 Oct	AD Marco 09 0-0 Fafe
24 Oct	Paredes 4-0 Trofense