Varzim vs Guimaraes B• Liga 3, Portugal

#71.6:1.42-4FT25/100.6:0.6#9

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.19PINX3.25BFR23.25WHMargin at best7.2%Books9Markets43Rating49 · 51 levelExp. goals L52.1

Price board · 1X2captured 25 Oct 14:01 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	2.19	3.18	3.25	7.9%
Dafabet	2.14	3.25	3.25	8.3%
Betano	2.15	3.15	3.25	9.0%
Betfair	2.10	3.25	3.10	10.6%
1xBet	2.08	3.15	3.21	11.0%
William Hill	2.15	2.90	3.25	11.8%
Bet365	2.10	3.10	3.10	12.1%
Marathonbet	2.06	3.15	3.12	12.3%
SBO	2.08	3.01	2.96	15.1%
Best of all books	2.19	3.25	3.25	7.2%
Average	2.12	3.13	3.17	10.8%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

VarzimGuimaraes B

Last 10#7Table position#91.29Points per game1.140Form pts · last 551.6Goals for · last 50.61.4Goals against · last 50.673Attack rating2730Defence rating7055Form rating4538H2H rating6259Goals model4149Overall rating51

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 30 Oct 00:02 UTC

Varzim

5W 0D 5L · goals 18:14 · per match 1.8 for, 1.4 against

25 Oct	H	Guimaraes B	2-4	L
11 Oct	A	São João Ver	1-2	L
19 Sep	A	Vitória de Sernache	1-2	L
12 Sep	H	Vianense	1-2	L
5 Sep	H	Paredes	0-1	L
29 Aug	H	Trofense	5-1	W
22 Aug	A	Pacos Ferreira	4-1	W
16 Aug	H	AD Marco 09	2-1	W
9 Aug	A	Trofense	1-0	W
29 Jul	A	Tirsense	1-0	W

Guimaraes B

3W 3D 4L · goals 13:14 · per match 1.3 for, 1.4 against

25 Oct	A	Varzim	4-2	W
11 Oct	H	Pacos Ferreira	0-1	L
12 Sep	A	AD Marco 09	0-1	L
5 Sep	H	Trofense	0-0	D
21 Aug	A	Fafe	1-1	D
15 Aug	H	Leça	2-0	W
7 Aug	A	Paredes	1-3	L
25 Jul	A	Chaves	3-2	W
16 May	H	Amarante	1-3	L
9 May	A	Trofense	1-1	D

Head to head

3Varzim wins

4draws

5Guimaraes B wins

12 meetings · goals 14:15 · last 10: 3W 3D 4L for Varzim

25 Apr 2026Liga 3	Liga 3	Varzim2-2Guimaraes B
28 Feb 2026Liga 3	Liga 3	Guimaraes B3-0Varzim
11 Jan 2026Liga 3	Liga 3	Guimaraes B1-2Varzim
4 Oct 2025Liga 3	Liga 3	Varzim1-1Guimaraes B
19 Feb 2023Liga 3	Liga 3	Guimaraes B2-1Varzim
4 Nov 2022Liga 3	Liga 3	Varzim2-0Guimaraes B
24 Feb 2019Segunda Liga	Segunda Liga	Guimaraes B0-0Varzim
7 Oct 2018Segunda Liga	Segunda Liga	Varzim1-2Guimaraes B
14 Jan 2018Segunda Liga	Segunda Liga	Guimaraes B2-1Varzim
6 Aug 2017Segunda Liga	Segunda Liga	Varzim3-0Guimaraes B

Liga 3 tableLiga 3updated 29 Oct 19:31 UTC

In the Liga 3 table, Varzim sit 7th with 9 points from 7 games, while Guimaraes B are 9th with 8 points from 7.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Paredes	7	5	1	1	15:7	+8	16
1	CF Os Belenenses	7	5	2	0	16:5	+11	17
2	AD Marco 09	7	3	2	2	6:5	+1	11
2	Atlético CP	7	4	2	1	14:6	+8	14
3	Fafe	7	2	4	1	10:6	+4	10
3	Oliveirense	7	2	4	1	9:9	0	10
4	Leça	7	3	1	3	9:9	0	10
4	União Santarém	7	3	1	3	8:11	-3	10
5	São João Ver	7	2	3	2	8:8	0	9
5	Mafra	7	2	3	2	14:10	+4	9
6	Vianense	7	2	3	2	10:11	-1	9
6	Louletano	7	2	2	3	9:10	-1	8
7	Varzim	7	3	0	4	11:11	0	9
7	Caldas	7	2	2	3	9:12	-3	8
8	Pacos Ferreira	7	2	2	3	7:10	-3	8
8	SC Covilha	7	1	4	2	5:7	-2	7
9	Guimaraes B	7	2	2	3	8:8	0	8
9	Lusitano Évora 1911	7	1	3	3	6:10	-4	6
10	Trofense	7	1	2	4	4:13	-9	5
10	Vitória de Sernache	7	1	1	5	5:15	-10	4

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg142%2.18X29%3.14230%3.07

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 7.2% margin.

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	2.08	1.73	5.9%
Pinnacle	2.08	1.72	6.2%
Betano	2.05	1.70	7.6%
1xBet	2.02	1.68	9.0%
Marathonbet	2.02	1.68	9.0%
Best of all books	2.08	1.73	5.9%
Average	2.05	1.70	7.5%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	1.75	1.95	8.4%
1xBet	1.80	1.87	9.0%
Betano	1.80	1.87	9.0%
Betfair	1.83	1.83	9.3%
Marathonbet	1.80	1.84	9.9%
Best of all books	1.83	1.95	5.9%
Average	1.80	1.87	9.1%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Varzim 10%Draw 45%Guimaraes B 45%

The statistical model rated Varzim at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Guimaraes B at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.18 | 3.14 | 3.07, which imply roughly 31.8% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Liga 3 table: Varzim are 7th (9 pts, 11-11 goals), Guimaraes B 9th (8 pts, 8-8).

Over their last five matches, Varzim averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game; Guimaraes B averaged 0.6 scored and 0.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Guimaraes B.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.12	3.13	3.17

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.27	1.60	1.28

Draw no bet

1	2
1.56	2.26

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.80	1.87

1st half

1	X	2
2.74	2.04	3.80

2nd half

1	X	2
2.50	2.32	3.49

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	3.47	14.4	33.9
HT X	5.31	4.76	7.04
HT 2	25.5	15.0	5.26

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.78	8.50	2.30

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.05	7.28
1.5	1.32	3.00
2.5	2.05	1.70
3.5	3.47	1.23
4.5	6.40	1.09
5.5	17.0	1.02

9 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.04	7.10
1.25	1.17	4.00
1.75	1.39	2.68
2	1.52	2.31
2.25	1.80	1.92
2.75	2.33	1.51
3	2.91	1.33
3.25	3.20	1.26
4	6.30	1.06

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.75	2.48	1.47
-0.5	2.16	1.66
-0.25	1.85	1.88
0	1.55	2.30
+0.25	1.40	2.71
+0.5	1.34	3.14

9 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2	8.20	1.02
-1.75	5.32	1.11
-1.5	4.07	1.18
-1.25	3.64	1.22
-1	3.30	1.29
+0.75	1.24	3.90
+1	1.09	5.95
+1.25	1.12	6.00
+1.5	1.07	6.87

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
9	1.78	2.02
9.5	2.01	1.74

Next Liga 3 matches

30 Oct	Fafe – Pacos Ferreira
31 Oct	Leça – Varzim
31 Oct	Mafra – Louletano
31 Oct	Trofense – AD Marco 09
31 Oct	Oliveirense – CF Os Belenenses
1 Nov	SC Covilha – Caldas

All Liga 3 fixtures and the table

Latest Liga 3 results

25 Oct	União Santarém 2-1 Vitória de Sernache
25 Oct	Vianense 1-3 São João Ver
25 Oct	CF Os Belenenses 1-1 SC Covilha
25 Oct	Louletano 2-2 Atlético CP
25 Oct	AD Marco 09 0-0 Fafe
24 Oct	Paredes 4-0 Trofense