Leça vs Varzim• Liga 3, Portugal

#41.6:1.215:00Tomorrow · Estadio do Leca Futebol Clube, Leca da Palmeira1.6:2.0#7

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.38PINX3.30BFR23.30BFRMargin at best2.6%Books8Markets40Rating53 · 48 levelExp. goals L53.2

Price board · 1X2captured 30 Oct 05:45 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	2.38	3.25	2.91	7.2%
Dafabet	2.27	3.30	3.00	7.7%
Betano	2.30	3.25	2.87	9.1%
Betfair	2.05	3.30	3.30	9.4%
1xBet	2.24	3.10	2.94	10.9%
Bet365	2.15	3.20	3.00	11.1%
Marathonbet	2.22	3.10	2.86	12.3%
William Hill	2.30	3.00	2.80	12.5%
Best of all books	2.38	3.30	3.30	2.6%
Average	2.24	3.19	2.96	9.8%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

LeçaVarzim

Last 10#4Table position#71.43Points per game1.2912Form pts · last 501.6Goals for · last 51.61.2Goals against · last 52.050Attack rating5063Defence rating3875Form rating250H2H rating023Goals model7753Overall rating48

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 30 Oct 00:02 UTC

Leça

5W 2D 3L · goals 12:9 · per match 1.2 for, 0.9 against

23 Oct	A	Pacos Ferreira	0-1	L
17 Oct	A	Penafiel	1-0	W
10 Oct	H	AD Marco 09	2-0	W
20 Sep	A	Mortágua	2-0	W
12 Sep	A	Trofense	4-1	W
6 Sep	H	Fafe	0-3	L
23 Aug	A	Paredes	2-1	W
15 Aug	A	Guimaraes B	0-2	L
9 Aug	H	São João Ver	1-1	D
29 Jul	H	Lusitânia Lourosa	0-0	D

Varzim

5W 0D 5L · goals 18:14 · per match 1.8 for, 1.4 against

25 Oct	H	Guimaraes B	2-4	L
11 Oct	A	São João Ver	1-2	L
19 Sep	A	Vitória de Sernache	1-2	L
12 Sep	H	Vianense	1-2	L
5 Sep	H	Paredes	0-1	L
29 Aug	H	Trofense	5-1	W
22 Aug	A	Pacos Ferreira	4-1	W
16 Aug	H	AD Marco 09	2-1	W
9 Aug	A	Trofense	1-0	W
29 Jul	A	Tirsense	1-0	W

Head to head

No previous meetings between Leça and Varzim on record.

Liga 3 tableLiga 3updated 29 Oct 19:31 UTC

In the Liga 3 table, Leça sit 4th with 10 points from 7 games, while Varzim are 7th with 9 points from 7.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Paredes	7	5	1	1	15:7	+8	16
1	CF Os Belenenses	7	5	2	0	16:5	+11	17
2	AD Marco 09	7	3	2	2	6:5	+1	11
2	Atlético CP	7	4	2	1	14:6	+8	14
3	Fafe	7	2	4	1	10:6	+4	10
3	Oliveirense	7	2	4	1	9:9	0	10
4	Leça	7	3	1	3	9:9	0	10
4	União Santarém	7	3	1	3	8:11	-3	10
5	São João Ver	7	2	3	2	8:8	0	9
5	Mafra	7	2	3	2	14:10	+4	9
6	Vianense	7	2	3	2	10:11	-1	9
6	Louletano	7	2	2	3	9:10	-1	8
7	Varzim	7	3	0	4	11:11	0	9
7	Caldas	7	2	2	3	9:12	-3	8
8	Pacos Ferreira	7	2	2	3	7:10	-3	8
8	SC Covilha	7	1	4	2	5:7	-2	7
9	Guimaraes B	7	2	2	3	8:8	0	8
9	Lusitano Évora 1911	7	1	3	3	6:10	-4	6
10	Trofense	7	1	2	4	4:13	-9	5
10	Vitória de Sernache	7	1	1	5	5:15	-10	4

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg141%2.24X29%3.19231%2.96

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 2.6% margin.

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	2.04	1.76	5.8%
Bet365	2.05	1.75	5.9%
Betano	2.02	1.72	7.6%
1xBet	1.96	1.72	9.2%
Marathonbet	1.96	1.72	9.2%
Best of all books	2.05	1.76	5.6%
Average	2.01	1.73	7.5%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	1.75	1.95	8.4%
1xBet	1.74	1.94	9.0%
Betano	1.78	1.88	9.4%
Marathonbet	1.74	1.91	9.8%
Best of all books	1.78	1.95	7.5%
Average	1.75	1.92	9.1%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Leça 45%Draw 45%Varzim 10%

The statistical model rates Leça at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Varzim at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.24 | 3.19 | 2.96, which imply roughly 44.6% for a Leça win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Liga 3 table: Leça are 4th (10 pts, 9-9 goals), Varzim 7th (9 pts, 11-11).

Over their last five matches, Leça averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game; Varzim averaged 1.6 scored and 2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Leça or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.24	3.19	2.96

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.31	1.57	1.29

Draw no bet

1	2
1.65	2.13

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.75	1.92

1st half

1	X	2
2.88	2.06	3.57

2nd half

1	X	2
2.65	2.34	3.22

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	3.65	14.0	30.3
HT X	5.53	4.97	6.77
HT 2	26.7	15.5	4.70

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.83	8.75	2.17

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.05	7.58
1.5	1.30	3.08
2.5	2.01	1.73
3.5	3.38	1.24
4.5	6.35	1.09
5.5	15.0	1.02

9 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.03	7.60
1.25	1.15	4.25
1.75	1.37	2.78
2	1.49	2.39
2.25	1.74	1.96
2.75	2.28	1.54
3	2.78	1.36
3.25	3.08	1.28
4	6.15	1.06

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.75	2.71	1.39
-0.5	2.21	1.63
-0.25	1.97	1.77
0	1.66	2.09
+0.25	1.47	2.45
+0.5	1.40	2.84

8 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	9.55	1.01
-2	8.40	1.01
-1.5	4.65	1.12
-1.25	4.15	1.16
-1	3.69	1.22
+0.75	1.21	3.58
+1	1.08	5.45
+1.5	1.05	6.55

Next Liga 3 matches

30 Oct	Fafe – Pacos Ferreira
31 Oct	Mafra – Louletano
31 Oct	Trofense – AD Marco 09
31 Oct	Oliveirense – CF Os Belenenses
1 Nov	SC Covilha – Caldas
1 Nov	Lusitano Évora 1911 – Vitória de Sernache

All Liga 3 fixtures and the table

Latest Liga 3 results

25 Oct	União Santarém 2-1 Vitória de Sernache
25 Oct	Varzim 2-4 Guimaraes B
25 Oct	Vianense 1-3 São João Ver
25 Oct	CF Os Belenenses 1-1 SC Covilha
25 Oct	Louletano 2-2 Atlético CP
25 Oct	AD Marco 09 0-0 Fafe