Paredes vs Trofense• Liga 3, Portugal

#11.6:1.24-0FT24/10 · Municipal das Laranjeiras, Paredes0.8:1.6#10

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.47PINX4.40DAF26.521XBMargin at best6.1%Books8Markets55Rating57 · 43Exp. goals L52.6

Price board · 1X2captured 24 Oct 11:12 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	1.45	4.56	5.96	7.7%
Dafabet	1.44	4.40	6.40	7.8%
Betano	1.45	4.20	6.10	9.2%
1xBet	1.40	4.15	6.52	10.9%
William Hill	1.44	4.00	6.00	11.1%
Bet365	1.40	4.20	6.00	11.9%
Marathonbet	1.41	4.00	6.15	12.2%
Betfair	1.36	4.20	6.50	12.7%
Best of all books	1.45	4.56	6.52	6.2%
Average	1.42	4.21	6.20	10.3%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

ParedesTrofense

Last 10#1Table position#102.29Points per game0.7113Form pts · last 551.6Goals for · last 50.81.2Goals against · last 51.667Attack rating3357Defence rating4367Form rating3325H2H rating7570Goals model3057Overall rating43

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 23 Oct 15:31 UTC

Paredes

8W 1D 1L · goals 24:11 · per match 2.4 for, 1.1 against

18 Oct	H	Famalicao	1-0	W
10 Oct	A	Vianense	3-3	D
20 Sep	H	Maria da Fonte	5-1	W
13 Sep	H	Fafe	2-1	W
5 Sep	A	Varzim	1-0	W
30 Aug	A	Ermesinde	3-1	W
23 Aug	H	Leça	1-2	L
15 Aug	A	Pacos Ferreira	1-0	W
7 Aug	H	Guimaraes B	3-1	W
1 Aug	H	Lusitânia Lourosa	4-2	W

Trofense

1W 4D 5L · goals 7:19 · per match 0.7 for, 1.9 against

11 Oct	A	Fafe	2-2	D
12 Sep	H	Leça	1-4	L
5 Sep	A	Guimaraes B	0-0	D
29 Aug	A	Varzim	1-5	L
22 Aug	H	São João Ver	1-0	W
15 Aug	A	Vianense	0-2	L
9 Aug	H	Varzim	0-1	L
31 Jul	A	AVS	1-1	D
16 May	A	Academica	0-3	L
9 May	H	Guimaraes B	1-1	D

Head to head

1Paredes wins

3draws

2Trofense wins

6 meetings · goals 4:3 · last 6: 1W 3D 2L for Paredes

7 Dec 2025Liga 3	Liga 3	Trofense0-0Paredes
23 Aug 2025Liga 3	Liga 3	Paredes0-0Trofense
11 Apr 2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C	Paredes0-1Trofense
10 Jan 2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C	Trofense0-0Paredes
2 Feb 2020Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B	Paredes0-1Trofense
31 Aug 2019Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B	Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B	Trofense1-4Paredes

Liga 3 tableLiga 3updated 25 Oct 21:20 UTC

In the Liga 3 table, Paredes sit 1st with 16 points from 7 games, while Trofense are 10th with 5 points from 7.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Paredes	7	5	1	1	15:7	+8	16
1	CF Os Belenenses	7	5	2	0	16:5	+11	17
2	AD Marco 09	7	3	2	2	6:5	+1	11
2	Atlético CP	7	4	2	1	14:6	+8	14
3	Fafe	7	2	4	1	10:6	+4	10
3	Oliveirense	7	2	4	1	9:9	0	10
4	Leça	7	3	1	3	9:9	0	10
4	Mafra	7	2	3	2	14:10	+4	9
5	São João Ver	7	2	3	2	8:8	0	9
5	Louletano	7	2	2	3	9:10	-1	8
6	Vianense	7	2	3	2	10:11	-1	9
6	Caldas	7	2	2	3	9:12	-3	8
7	Varzim	7	3	0	4	11:11	0	9
7	SC Covilha	7	1	4	2	5:7	-2	7
8	Pacos Ferreira	7	2	2	3	7:10	-3	8
8	União Santarém	6	2	1	3	6:10	-4	7
9	Guimaraes B	7	2	2	3	8:8	0	8
9	Lusitano Évora 1911	7	1	3	3	6:10	-4	6
10	Trofense	7	1	2	4	4:13	-9	5
10	Vitória de Sernache	6	1	1	4	4:13	-9	4

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg163%1.42X22%4.14215%6.09

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 6.1% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.43 → 1.42 -0.7%X4.06 → 4.14 +2.0%26.49 → 6.09 -6.2%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.80	2.00	5.6%
Pinnacle	1.77	2.02	6.0%
Betano	1.80	1.91	7.9%
1xBet	1.75	1.93	9.0%
Marathonbet	1.82	1.85	9.0%
Best of all books	1.82	2.02	4.5%
Average	1.79	1.94	7.4%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	1.91	1.80	7.9%
Betano	1.98	1.72	8.6%
1xBet	1.90	1.78	8.8%
Marathonbet	1.95	1.71	9.8%
Best of all books	1.98	1.80	6.1%
Average	1.93	1.75	8.7%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Paredes 45%Draw 45%Trofense 10%

The statistical model rated Paredes at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Trofense at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.42 | 4.14 | 6.09, which imply roughly 70.4% for a Paredes win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Liga 3 table: Paredes are 1st (16 pts, 15-7 goals), Trofense 10th (5 pts, 4-13).

Over their last five matches, Paredes averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game; Trofense averaged 0.8 scored and 1.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Paredes or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.42	4.21	6.20

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.08	2.58	1.17

Draw no bet

1	2
1.17	4.40

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.94	1.75

1st half

1	X	2
1.94	2.29	6.29

2nd half

1	X	2
1.76	2.67	5.85

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	2.12	18.8	55.3
HT X	4.05	6.23	13.3
HT 2	21.3	19.5	10.9

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.38	11.5	3.26

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.05	9.40
1.5	1.23	3.45
2.5	1.79	1.94
3.5	2.97	1.32
4.5	4.90	1.13
5.5	11.0	1.04

10 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.01	8.90
1.25	1.15	4.20
1.75	1.28	3.20
2	1.35	2.82
2.25	1.56	2.22
2.75	2.00	1.72
3	2.38	1.49
3.25	2.71	1.39
3.75	3.57	1.21
4	4.85	1.11

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.75	2.68	1.41
-1.5	2.27	1.56
-1.25	2.01	1.72
-1	1.73	2.01
-0.75	1.54	2.31
-0.5	1.44	2.70

11 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-3.5	8.60	1.01
-3.25	7.00	1.10
-3	7.40	1.05
-2.75	4.65	1.18
-2.5	4.08	1.18
-2.25	3.55	1.27
-2	3.38	1.26
-0.25	1.28	3.29
0	1.14	4.82
+0.25	1.11	5.42
+0.5	1.13	5.90

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
9	1.80	2.00
9.5	2.00	1.74

Latest Liga 3 results

25 Oct	União Santarém 2-1 Vitória de Sernache
25 Oct	Varzim 2-4 Guimaraes B
25 Oct	Vianense 1-3 São João Ver
25 Oct	CF Os Belenenses 1-1 SC Covilha
25 Oct	Louletano 2-2 Atlético CP
25 Oct	AD Marco 09 0-0 Fafe