AD Nogueirense vs Mortágua• Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C, Portugal

#91.4:1.815:00Today1.0:0.6#3

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.80DAFX3.10B36522.71PINMargin at best4.9%Books7Markets38Rating37 · 63Exp. goals L52.4

Price board · 1X2captured 8 Nov 12:00 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	2.80	3.05	2.70	5.5%
Betano	2.60	3.00	2.55	11.0%
Bet365	2.70	3.10	2.38	11.3%
Pinnacle	2.56	2.79	2.71	11.8%
1xBet	2.56	2.86	2.62	12.2%
Marathonbet	2.56	2.86	2.62	12.2%
William Hill	2.60	2.70	2.70	12.5%
Best of all books	2.80	3.10	2.71	4.9%
Average	2.63	2.91	2.61	10.8%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

AD NogueirenseMortágua

Last 10#9Table position#31.14Points per game2.006Form pts · last 551.4Goals for · last 51.01.8Goals against · last 50.658Attack rating4225Defence rating7543Form rating570H2H rating10022Goals model7837Overall rating63

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 6 Nov 06:01 UTC

AD Nogueirense

1W 5D 4L · goals 12:19 · per match 1.2 for, 1.9 against

1 Nov	A	Oliveira Hospital	3-3	D
25 Oct	A	FC Alverca II	0-3	L
11 Oct	H	Naval 1893	0-0	D
13 Sep	A	Benfica Castelo Branco	3-2	W
6 Sep	H	UD da Serra	1-1	D
30 Aug	H	Naval 1893	1-3	L
23 Aug	A	Fazendense	3-3	D
16 Aug	H	Sertanense	1-1	D
9 Sep	A	Sanjoanense	0-2	L
3 Sep	H	Gafanha	0-1	L

Mortágua

5W 3D 2L · goals 13:8 · per match 1.3 for, 0.8 against

1 Nov	H	FC Alverca II	0-0	D
25 Oct	A	Naval 1893	2-0	W
11 Oct	H	Benfica Castelo Branco	0-1	L
20 Sep	H	Leça	0-2	L
13 Sep	A	UD da Serra	1-1	D
6 Sep	H	Fazendense	2-1	W
30 Aug	A	SC Covilha	0-0	D
23 Aug	A	Sertanense	3-1	W
16 Aug	H	Nazarenos	3-1	W
18 Apr	H	Eléctrico	2-1	W

Head to head

0AD Nogueirense wins

0draws

1Mortágua wins

1 meeting · goals 0:1 · last 1: 0W 0D 1L for AD Nogueirense

4 Sep 2016Taça de Portugal

Taça de Portugal

Mortágua1-0AD Nogueirense

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C tableII Divisao: Group Cupdated 8 Nov 03:20 UTC

In the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C table, AD Nogueirense sit 9th with 8 points from 7 games, while Mortágua are 3rd with 14 points from 7.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Os Marialvas	7	5	1	1	12:4	+8	16
2	O Elvas	7	5	1	1	13:6	+7	16
3	Mortágua	7	4	2	1	11:5	+6	14
4	Oliveira Hospital	7	4	2	1	13:9	+4	14
5	UD da Serra	7	3	3	1	10:8	+2	12
6	Benfica Castelo Branco	7	3	1	3	11:14	-3	10
7	Atlético Malveira	7	2	3	2	10:11	-1	9
8	Fátima	7	2	2	3	15:11	+4	8
9	AD Nogueirense	7	1	5	1	11:13	-2	8
10	Naval 1893	7	2	1	4	7:9	-2	7
11	FC Alverca II	7	2	1	4	10:7	+3	7
12	Sertanense	7	0	5	2	5:9	-4	5
13	Nazarenos	7	1	2	4	5:12	-7	5
14	Fazendense	7	0	1	6	8:23	-15	1

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg134%2.63X31%2.91235%2.61

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 4.9% margin.

1X2 since open average price

12.28 → 2.63 +15.4%X3.20 → 2.91 -9.1%22.89 → 2.61 -9.7%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	2.20	1.65	6.1%
Pinnacle	2.28	1.54	8.8%
1xBet	2.22	1.56	9.1%
Marathonbet	2.22	1.56	9.1%
Betano	2.15	1.57	10.2%
Best of all books	2.28	1.65	4.5%
Average	2.21	1.58	8.6%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
1xBet	1.88	1.79	9.1%
William Hill	1.91	1.75	9.5%
Marathonbet	1.88	1.76	10.0%
Best of all books	1.91	1.79	8.2%
Average	1.89	1.77	9.5%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

AD Nogueirense 10%Draw 45%Mortágua 45%

The statistical model rates AD Nogueirense at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Mortágua at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.63 | 2.91 | 2.61, which imply roughly 34.4% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C table: AD Nogueirense are 9th (8 pts, 11-13 goals), Mortágua 3rd (14 pts, 11-5).

Over their last five matches, AD Nogueirense averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game; Mortágua averaged 1 scored and 0.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Mortágua.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.63	2.91	2.61

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.41	1.38	1.32

Draw no bet

1	2
1.92	1.77

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.89	1.77

1st half

1	X	2
3.30	1.94	3.29

2nd half

1	X	2
2.91	2.21	3.03

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	4.40	15.5	32.7
HT X	5.90	4.43	5.97
HT 2	31.0	15.8	4.27

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.97	7.45	2.13

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.05	7.00
1.5	1.38	2.64
2.5	2.21	1.58
3.5	4.10	1.16
4.5	9.50	1.05
5.5	23.0	1.01

9 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.08	5.65
1.25	1.23	3.42
1.75	1.49	2.35
2	1.67	2.01
2.25	1.95	1.72
2.75	2.62	1.39
3	3.35	1.24
3.25	3.72	1.20
4	7.50	1.03

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.75	3.12	1.28
-0.5	2.51	1.44
-0.25	2.13	1.63
0	1.86	1.85
+0.25	1.54	2.25
+0.5	1.39	2.65

9 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	9.70	1.01
-1.5	5.55	1.08
-1.25	5.05	1.10
-1	4.55	1.13
+0.75	1.26	3.22
+1	1.15	4.44
+1.25	1.13	4.60
+1.5	1.07	5.75
+2.5	1.01	10.5

Next Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C matches

8 Nov	FC Alverca II – O Elvas
8 Nov	Naval 1893 – Atlético Malveira
8 Nov	UD da Serra – Fátima
8 Nov	Sertanense – Oliveira Hospital
8 Nov	Fazendense – Nazarenos
8 Nov	Benfica Castelo Branco – Os Marialvas

All Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C fixtures and the table

Latest Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C results

1 Nov	Atlético Malveira 2-2 Benfica Castelo Branco
1 Nov	Fátima 6-1 Fazendense
1 Nov	Nazarenos 0-0 Sertanense
1 Nov	Oliveira Hospital 3-3 AD Nogueirense
25 Oct	Nazarenos 1-1 Oliveira Hospital
25 Oct	Fazendense 1-2 Os Marialvas