UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima• Primera División, Peru

#160.4:2.018:1525/10 · Estadio 25 de Noviembre, Moquegua1.8:1.0#1

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

16.00MARX3.95DAF21.62B365Margin at best3.7%Books8Markets79Rating27 · 73Exp. goals L52.6

Price board · 1X2captured 22 Oct 20:10 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	5.80	3.95	1.61	4.7%
Bet365	5.50	3.60	1.62	7.7%
Pinnacle	5.77	3.79	1.56	7.8%
1xBet	5.94	3.74	1.55	8.1%
Marathonbet	6.00	3.74	1.53	8.8%
Betano	5.20	3.65	1.60	9.1%
William Hill	5.80	3.50	1.57	9.5%
Betfair	5.50	3.60	1.53	11.3%
Best of all books	6.00	3.95	1.62	3.7%
Average	5.69	3.70	1.57	8.3%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

UCV MoqueguaAlianza Lima

Last 10#16Table position#10.97Points per game2.143Form pts · last 590.4Goals for · last 51.82.0Goals against · last 51.018Attack rating8233Defence rating6723Form rating770H2H rating10028Goals model7227Overall rating73

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 22 Oct 00:02 UTC

UCV Moquegua

2W 1D 7L · goals 6:19 · per match 0.6 for, 1.9 against

18 Oct	A	FC Cajamarca	1-0	W
8 Oct	H	Cienciano	0-2	L
20 Sep	A	Juan Pablo II College	0-4	L
13 Sep	H	Sporting Cristal	1-2	L
5 Sep	A	Cusco	0-2	L
30 Aug	H	Alianza Atletico	1-4	L
27 Aug	A	ADT	0-2	L
22 Aug	A	Sport Huancayo	2-0	W
16 Aug	H	Sport Boys	1-1	D
9 Aug	A	Deportivo Garcilaso	0-2	L

Alianza Lima

4W 3D 3L · goals 13:10 · per match 1.3 for, 1.0 against

18 Oct	H	Atletico Grau	3-1	W
11 Oct	A	Cusco	2-1	W
1 Oct	H	Palestino	1-2	L
19 Sep	H	ADT	2-0	W
13 Sep	H	Universitario	1-2	L
6 Sep	A	Juan Pablo II College	1-1	D
30 Aug	H	Deportivo Garcilaso	0-1	L
23 Aug	A	FBC Melgar	1-1	D
16 Aug	H	UTC Cajamarca	1-0	W
9 Aug	A	Sport Boys	1-1	D

Head to head

0UCV Moquegua wins

0draws

1Alianza Lima wins

1 meeting · goals 1:2 · last 1: 0W 0D 1L for UCV Moquegua

3 May 2026Primera División

Primera División

Alianza Lima2-1UCV Moquegua

Primera División tablePrimera Division: Tabla Anualupdated 23 Oct 00:20 UTC

In the Primera División table, UCV Moquegua sit 16th with 28 points from 29 games, while Alianza Lima are 1st with 62 points from 29.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	29	18	8	3	49:20	+29	62
2	Universitario	29	15	8	6	49:34	+15	53
3	FBC Melgar	29	14	8	7	51:33	+18	50
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	14	6	9	41:29	+12	48
5	Cienciano	29	14	5	10	49:40	+9	47
6	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	29	13	7	9	38:46	-8	46
7	Cusco	29	14	3	12	42:42	0	45
8	Sporting Cristal	29	13	5	11	53:42	+11	44
9	Alianza Atletico	29	12	7	10	44:40	+4	43
10	Sport Huancayo	29	12	5	12	40:45	-5	41
11	Sport Boys	29	10	8	11	30:31	-1	38
12	Juan Pablo II College	29	10	8	11	45:53	-8	38
13	Atletico Grau	29	9	6	14	27:34	-7	33
14	Comerciantes Unidos	29	7	10	12	38:43	-5	31
15	FC Cajamarca	29	7	7	15	41:53	-12	28
16	UCV Moquegua	29	7	7	15	25:43	-18	28
17	ADT	29	6	8	15	30:44	-14	26
18	UTC Cajamarca	29	4	8	17	32:52	-20	15

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg116%5.69X25%3.70259%1.57

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 3.7% margin.

1X2 since open average price

15.43 → 5.69 +4.8%X3.68 → 3.70 +0.5%21.60 → 1.57 -1.9%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	2.06	1.74	6.0%
Betfair	2.15	1.67	6.4%
Bet365	2.10	1.70	6.4%
Betano	2.07	1.70	7.1%
1xBet	2.03	1.72	7.4%
Marathonbet	2.03	1.72	7.4%
Best of all books	2.15	1.74	4.0%
Average	2.07	1.71	6.8%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Bet365	2.10	1.67	7.5%
William Hill	2.05	1.70	7.6%
1xBet	2.05	1.69	8.0%
Betano	2.07	1.67	8.2%
Marathonbet	2.05	1.67	8.7%
Best of all books	2.10	1.70	6.4%
Average	2.06	1.68	8.0%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

UCV Moquegua 0%Draw 50%Alianza Lima 50%

The statistical model rates UCV Moquegua at 0% to win, the draw at 50% and Alianza Lima at 50% — against average 1X2 odds of 5.69 | 3.70 | 1.57, which imply roughly 27% for the draw versus the model's 50%.

Form context from the Primera División table: UCV Moquegua are 16th (28 pts, 25-43 goals), Alianza Lima 1st (62 pts, 49-20).

Over their last five matches, UCV Moquegua averaged 0.4 goals scored and 2 conceded per game; Alianza Lima averaged 1.8 scored and 1 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Alianza Lima.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
5.69	3.70	1.57

Double chance

1X	X2	12
2.29	1.12	1.24

Draw no bet

1	2
3.98	1.21

Both teams to score

Yes	No
2.06	1.68

1st half

1	X	2
6.03	2.13	2.13

2nd half

1	X	2
5.30	2.44	1.96

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	9.99	17.9	26.5
HT X	11.6	5.18	4.06
HT 2	56.3	16.9	2.36

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
3.13	8.70	1.48

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.04	8.65
1.5	1.32	3.07
2.5	2.07	1.71
3.5	3.56	1.24
4.5	7.13	1.06
5.5	14.4	1.02
6.5	37.5	–

12 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.02	8.10
1	1.03	7.40
1.25	1.16	4.11
1.75	1.39	2.69
2	1.53	2.32
2.25	1.78	1.93
2.75	2.34	1.53
3	2.87	1.34
3.25	3.22	1.27
3.75	4.51	1.13
4	6.40	1.05
4.25	6.80	1.04

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
+0.25	2.85	1.36
+0.5	2.30	1.59
+0.75	2.03	1.71
+1	1.76	2.01
+1.25	1.54	2.31
+1.5	1.42	2.64

11 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-0.75	7.90	1.02
-0.5	5.50	1.15
-0.25	4.88	1.13
0	4.20	1.19
+1.75	1.29	3.23
+2	1.15	4.53
+2.25	1.12	5.03
+2.5	1.10	5.47
+2.75	1.06	6.97
+3	1.01	10.5
+3.5	1.01	9.40

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
5.5	1.06	5.67
6.5	1.23	3.42
7.5	1.48	2.44
8.5	1.89	1.84
9.5	2.42	1.49
10.5	3.32	1.24
11.5	4.94	1.09

18 more lines

Line	Over	Under
5.75	1.10	4.87
6	1.08	5.13
6.25	1.19	3.70
6.75	1.31	2.98
7	1.29	3.04
7.25	1.46	2.46
7.75	1.64	2.12
8	1.64	2.11
8.25	1.85	1.85
8.75	2.11	1.64
9	2.15	1.62
9.25	2.44	1.47
9.75	2.86	1.33
10	3.00	1.30
10.25	3.46	1.22
10.75	4.20	1.14
11	4.54	1.12
11.25	5.31	1.07

Next Primera División matches

23 Oct	UTC Cajamarca – FBC Melgar
23 Oct	Atletico Grau – ADT
24 Oct	Sport Huancayo – Alianza Atletico
24 Oct	Cusco – Sporting Cristal
25 Oct	Universitario – Juan Pablo II College
25 Oct	Comerciantes Unidos – Cienciano

All Primera División fixtures and the table

Latest Primera División results

18 Oct	Cienciano 1-0 UTC Cajamarca
18 Oct	Alianza Atletico 1-4 Universitario
18 Oct	FC Cajamarca 0-1 UCV Moquegua
18 Oct	Sporting Cristal 4-2 Comerciantes Unidos
18 Oct	Alianza Lima 3-1 Atletico Grau
17 Oct	FBC Melgar 4-2 Deportivo Garcilaso