FS Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils• Virsliga, Latvia

#70.4:1.812:00Tomorrow · Olympic Sports Center of Zemgale, Jelgava1.2:1.0#5

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

13.45BTNX3.70B36521.95BFRMargin at best7.3%Books6Markets46Rating24 · 76Exp. goals L52.2

Price board · 1X2captured 24 Oct 02:46 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	3.50	3.65	1.92	8.1%
Betfair	3.40	3.60	1.91	9.5%
1xBet	3.40	3.40	1.92	10.9%
Bet365	3.40	3.70	1.83	11.1%
Betano	3.45	3.55	1.85	11.2%
Marathonbet	3.32	3.40	1.90	12.2%
Best of all books	3.50	3.70	1.92	7.7%
Average	3.41	3.55	1.89	10.4%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

FS JelgavaBFC Daugavpils

Last 10#7Table position#50.97Points per game1.361Form pts · last 580.4Goals for · last 51.21.8Goals against · last 51.025Attack rating7536Defence rating6411Form rating8915H2H rating8532Goals model6824Overall rating76

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 22 Oct 00:02 UTC

FS Jelgava

2W 1D 7L · goals 10:17 · per match 1.0 for, 1.7 against

18 Oct	A	FK Liepaja	0-3	L
11 Oct	A	Rīgas FS	2-4	L
19 Sep	H	Riga	0-1	L
12 Sep	A	Grobiņa	0-0	D
5 Sep	H	Super Nova	0-1	L
29 Aug	A	Tukums	4-1	W
22 Aug	A	Ogre United	3-2	W
9 Aug	H	Auda	0-1	L
1 Aug	A	BFC Daugavpils	1-2	L
26 Jul	H	FK Liepaja	0-2	L

BFC Daugavpils

4W 4D 2L · goals 13:9 · per match 1.3 for, 0.9 against

19 Oct	H	Auda	2-1	W
11 Oct	A	Ogre United	2-1	W
19 Sep	A	FK Liepaja	0-0	D
13 Sep	H	Rīgas FS	1-2	L
7 Sep	A	Riga	1-1	D
2 Sep	H	Auda	2-2	D
29 Aug	A	Grobiņa	0-1	L
22 Aug	A	Super Nova	0-0	D
14 Aug	H	Ogre United	3-1	W
8 Aug	H	Tukums	2-0	W

Head to head

2FS Jelgava wins

6draws

7BFC Daugavpils wins

15 meetings · goals 11:19 · last 10: 1W 3D 6L for FS Jelgava

1 Aug 2026Virsliga	Virsliga	BFC Daugavpils2-1FS Jelgava
31 May 2026Virsliga	Virsliga	FS Jelgava1-1BFC Daugavpils
16 Apr 2026Virsliga	Virsliga	BFC Daugavpils1-0FS Jelgava
18 Oct 2025Virsliga	Virsliga	FS Jelgava0-0BFC Daugavpils
27 Jul 2025Virsliga	Virsliga	BFC Daugavpils2-0FS Jelgava
25 May 2025Virsliga	Virsliga	BFC Daugavpils1-0FS Jelgava
10 Apr 2025Virsliga	Virsliga	FS Jelgava4-1BFC Daugavpils
1 Sep 2024Virsliga	Virsliga	FS Jelgava0-0BFC Daugavpils
21 Jun 2024Virsliga	Virsliga	BFC Daugavpils3-0FS Jelgava
3 May 2024Virsliga	Virsliga	BFC Daugavpils1-0FS Jelgava

Virsliga tableVirsligaupdated 24 Oct 00:20 UTC

In the Virsliga table, FS Jelgava sit 7th with 32 points from 33 games, while BFC Daugavpils are 5th with 45 points from 33.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Rīgas FS	33	26	5	2	81:24	+57	83
2	Riga	33	24	7	2	90:31	+59	79
3	Auda	33	19	7	7	53:34	+19	64
4	FK Liepaja	33	13	7	13	46:46	0	46
5	BFC Daugavpils	33	12	9	12	39:37	+2	45
6	Super Nova	33	11	5	17	32:47	-15	38
7	FS Jelgava	33	8	8	17	34:56	-22	32
8	Grobiņa	33	6	11	16	25:56	-31	29
9	Tukums	33	5	9	19	44:65	-21	24
10	Ogre United	33	4	6	23	33:81	-48	18

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg127%3.37X26%3.52248%1.90

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 7.3% margin.

1X2 since open average price

12.77 → 3.37 +21.7%X3.39 → 3.52 +3.8%22.19 → 1.90 -13.2%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.85	1.95	5.3%
Betfair	1.80	2.00	5.6%
1xBet	1.77	1.90	9.1%
Marathonbet	1.77	1.90	9.1%
Betano	1.75	1.88	10.3%
Best of all books	1.85	2.00	4.1%
Average	1.79	1.93	7.8%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	1.67	2.10	7.5%
1xBet	1.65	2.07	8.9%
Marathonbet	1.65	2.03	9.9%
Best of all books	1.67	2.10	7.5%
Average	1.66	2.07	8.7%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

FS Jelgava 0%Draw 50%BFC Daugavpils 50%

The statistical model rates FS Jelgava at 0% to win, the draw at 50% and BFC Daugavpils at 50% — against average 1X2 odds of 3.37 | 3.52 | 1.90, which imply roughly 28.4% for the draw versus the model's 50%.

Form context from the Virsliga table: FS Jelgava are 7th (32 pts, 34-56 goals), BFC Daugavpils 5th (45 pts, 39-37).

Over their last five matches, FS Jelgava averaged 0.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game; BFC Daugavpils averaged 1.2 scored and 1 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or BFC Daugavpils.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
3.41	3.55	1.89

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.73	1.24	1.22

Draw no bet

1	2
2.59	1.43

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.66	2.07

1st half

1	X	2
3.94	2.18	2.46

2nd half

1	X	2
3.59	2.52	2.25

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	5.72	14.2	22.6
HT X	8.02	5.56	4.94
HT 2	31.8	14.0	2.94

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.25	12.1	1.73

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.02	11.8
1.5	1.22	3.70
2.5	1.79	1.93
3.5	2.95	1.33
4.5	5.50	1.10
5.5	10.5	1.04

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.01	8.82
1	1.01	8.40
1.25	1.12	4.80
1.75	1.27	3.15
2	1.35	2.74
2.25	1.56	2.18
2.75	1.95	1.71
3	2.28	1.50
3.25	2.57	1.40
3.75	3.42	1.23
4	4.60	1.13
4.25	4.90	1.11
5	9.00	–

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.25	2.84	1.34
0	2.49	1.44
+0.25	1.98	1.73
+0.5	1.87	1.83
+0.75	1.56	2.17
+1	1.36	2.70

10 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-1.75	8.80	1.01
-1.5	6.95	1.04
-1.25	6.55	1.05
-1	6.05	1.06
-0.75	4.11	1.16
+1.25	1.28	3.08
+1.5	1.23	3.42
+1.75	1.14	4.33
+2	1.06	6.15
+2.5	1.04	6.90

Next Virsliga matches

24 Oct	FK Liepaja – Tukums
25 Oct	Ogre United – Auda
25 Oct	Super Nova – Rīgas FS
26 Oct	Grobiņa – Riga

All Virsliga fixtures and the table

Latest Virsliga results

19 Oct	Rīgas FS 2-0 Tukums
19 Oct	BFC Daugavpils 2-1 Auda
18 Oct	FK Liepaja 3-0 FS Jelgava
18 Oct	Riga 2-1 Super Nova
17 Oct	Grobiņa 3-2 Ogre United
15 Oct	Rīgas FS 4-0 Super Nova