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Grobiņa vs Ogre United• Virsliga, Latvia

#80.6:0.83-2FT17/101.0:1.4#10

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.81PINX3.65PIN24.001XBMargin at best7.6%Books6Markets55Rating54 · 47 levelExp. goals L51.9

Price board · 1X2captured 17 Oct 08:38 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
Pinnacle1.813.653.987.8%
BetVictor1.803.604.008.3%
1xBet1.743.524.0010.9%
William Hill1.803.403.8011.3%
Bet3651.733.603.8011.9%
Marathonbet1.723.523.9012.2%
Best of all books1.813.654.007.6%
Average1.773.553.9110.3%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

GrobiņaOgre United
Last 10#8Table position#100.88Points per game0.555Form pts · last 540.6Goals for · last 51.00.8Goals against · last 51.438Attack rating6364Defence rating3656Form rating4450H2H rating5064Goals model3654Overall rating47

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 01:50 UTC

Grobiņa

1W 3D 6L · goals 9:22 · per match 0.9 for, 2.2 against

10 OctASuper Nova1-2L
20 SepATukums1-1D
12 SepHFS Jelgava0-0D
6 SepAAuda0-1L
29 AugHBFC Daugavpils1-0W
21 AugAFK Liepaja1-3L
17 AugAAuda2-3L
10 AugARīgas FS1-6L
2 AugARiga0-4L
27 JulHOgre United2-2D

Ogre United

1W 2D 7L · goals 11:22 · per match 1.1 for, 2.2 against

11 OctHBFC Daugavpils1-2L
20 SepHSuper Nova1-0W
16 SepAAuda0-1L
11 SepHFK Liepaja2-2D
5 SepATukums1-2L
30 AugHRīgas FS0-3L
22 AugHFS Jelgava2-3L
14 AugABFC Daugavpils1-3L
9 AugARiga1-4L
27 JulAGrobiņa2-2D

Head to head

0Grobiņa wins
3draws
0Ogre United wins

3 meetings · goals 4:4 · last 3: 0W 3D 0L for Grobiņa

27 Jul 2026VirsligaVirsligaGrobiņa2-2Ogre United
25 May 2026VirsligaVirsligaOgre United1-1Grobiņa
13 Apr 2026VirsligaVirsligaOgre United1-1Grobiņa

Virsliga tableVirsligaupdated 17 Oct 15:02 UTC

In the Virsliga table, Grobiņa sit 8th with 29 points from 33 games, while Ogre United are 10th with 18 points from 33.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Rīgas FS32255279:24+5580
2Riga32237288:30+5876
3Auda32197652:32+2064
4FK Liepaja321271343:46-343
5BFC Daugavpils321191237:36+142
6Super Nova321151631:45-1438
7FS Jelgava32881634:53-1932
8Grobiņa336111625:56-3129
9Tukums32591844:63-1924
10Ogre United33462333:81-4818

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg151%1.77X26%3.55223%3.91

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 7.6% margin.

1X2 since open average price

14 Oct 00:0116 Oct 15:201 1.76X 3.542 3.90
11.85 → 1.76 -4.9%X3.60 → 3.54 -1.7%23.68 → 3.90 +6.0%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
Bet3651.732.085.9%
Pinnacle1.752.055.9%
BetVictor1.711.989.0%
1xBet1.731.959.1%
Marathonbet1.731.959.1%
Best of all books1.752.085.2%
Average1.732.007.8%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Bet3651.672.107.5%
William Hill1.672.107.5%
BetVictor1.652.108.2%
1xBet1.672.058.7%
Marathonbet1.672.019.6%
Best of all books1.672.107.5%
Average1.672.078.3%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Grobiņa 45%Draw 45%Ogre United 10%

The statistical model rated Grobiņa at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Ogre United at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.77 | 3.55 | 3.91, which imply roughly 56.5% for a Grobiņa win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Virsliga table: Grobiņa are 8th (29 pts, 25-56 goals), Ogre United 10th (18 pts, 33-81).

Over their last five matches, Grobiņa averaged 0.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game; Ogre United averaged 1 scored and 1.4 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Grobiņa or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Grobiņa

4-4-2

Goalkeeper

  • 21Roberts Ozols

Defence

  • 8Oladotun Olatunde-Matthew
  • 15Aleksa Jovanović
  • 14Maksims Sidorovs
  • 27Rolandas Baravykas

Midfield

  • 11Olgerts Rascevskis
  • 3Davids Druzinins
  • 87Martin Jose
  • 20Hirotaka Yamada

Attack

  • 6Milan Corryn
  • 77Dodo
Substitutes (7)
  • 1Vjačeslavs Kudrjavcevs
  • 5Gustavs Leitans
  • 2Krisjanis Rupeiks
  • 13Ali Aruna
  • 80Anton Baydal
  • 32Gļebs Kļuškins
  • 99Artjoms Puzirevskis

Ogre United

4-4-2

Goalkeeper

  • 1Nikita Parfjonovs

Defence

  • 5Rendijs Sibass
  • 13Krists Gulbis
  • 55Aleksejs Kudeļkins
  • 27Aleksandrs Molotkovs

Midfield

  • 22Leif Estevez Fernandez
  • 19Kristers Cudars
  • 30Arsentiy Doroshenko
  • 10Markuss Kalnins

Attack

  • 7Ingars Pulis
  • 9Jacques Fokam-Sandeu
Substitutes (9)
  • 20Janis Kristers Biscuhis
  • 2Rudolfs Ziemelis
  • 6Dāvis Vējkrīgers
  • 91Janis Grinbergs
  • 17Vadim Mashchenko
  • 21Markuss Ivulans
  • 8Tomass Mickevics
  • 71Artem Marchuk
  • 11Marks Pacepko

Match Statistics

GrobiņaOgre United
6Shots on Goal7
8Shots off Goal6
21Total Shots16
7Blocked Shots3
14Shots insidebox12
7Shots outsidebox4
16Fouls14
9Corner Kicks10
1Offsides1
41%Ball Possession59%
1Yellow Cards1
5Goalkeeper Saves2
255Total passes377
166Passes accurate291
65%Passes %77%
2.61Expected Goals2.12
-1.11Goals Prevented-1.11

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
1.773.553.91

Double chance

1XX212
1.191.881.23

Draw no bet

12
1.362.93

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.672.07

1st half

1X2
2.312.254.36

2nd half

1X2
2.122.553.97

HT/FT

HT / FTFT 1FT XFT 2
HT 12.6514.836.7
HT X4.735.679.07
HT 223.715.16.57

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
1.5912.92.44

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.0410.0
1.51.213.82
2.51.732.00
3.52.801.37
4.55.131.11
5.59.501.03
6.512.01.01
7.521.0–
13 more lines
LineOverUnder
1–9.20
1.251.105.10
1.751.253.28
21.332.95
2.251.532.30
2.751.911.77
32.221.57
3.252.531.43
3.753.341.24
44.501.13
4.254.851.11
4.756.601.05
59.30–

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-1.252.711.40
-12.371.51
-0.751.991.73
-0.51.781.99
-0.251.552.28
01.342.97
13 more lines
LineHomeAway
-310.01.01
-2.757.581.05
-2.56.121.08
-2.255.681.10
-25.331.11
-1.753.731.21
-1.53.011.32
+0.251.273.40
+0.51.263.70
+0.751.125.00
+11.027.90
+1.251.037.20
+1.51.018.80

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
9.51.831.83