Rīgas FS vs Super Nova• Virsliga, Latvia

#12.0:0.84-0FT15/10 · LNK Sporta Parks, Riga0.8:0.6#6

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.13BTNX8.81PIN220.0BVCMargin at best4.8%Books9Markets72Rating64 · 36Exp. goals L52.1

Price board · 1X2captured 15 Oct 08:07 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	1.11	8.81	16.5	7.5%
Bet365	1.11	8.00	19.0	7.9%
Dafabet	1.10	8.20	19.0	8.4%
BetVictor	1.09	8.50	20.0	8.5%
William Hill	1.12	7.00	17.0	9.5%
Betfair	1.08	8.50	17.0	10.2%
Betano	1.13	6.60	14.5	10.5%
1xBet	1.08	7.60	16.5	11.8%
Marathonbet	1.08	7.60	16.5	11.8%
Best of all books	1.13	8.81	20.0	4.8%
Average	1.10	7.87	17.3	9.4%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Rīgas FSSuper Nova

Last 10#1Table position#62.50Points per game1.1911Form pts · last 562.0Goals for · last 50.80.8Goals against · last 50.671Attack rating2943Defence rating5755Form rating45100H2H rating074Goals model2664Overall rating36

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 06:31 UTC

Rīgas FS

5W 3D 2L · goals 21:12 · per match 2.1 for, 1.2 against

15 Oct	H	Super Nova	4-0	W
11 Oct	H	FS Jelgava	4-2	W
20 Sep	A	Auda	1-1	D
13 Sep	A	BFC Daugavpils	2-1	W
7 Sep	H	FK Liepaja	0-0	D
3 Sep	H	Riga	2-3	L
30 Aug	A	Ogre United	3-0	W
23 Aug	H	Riga	3-3	D
16 Aug	A	Super Nova	1-0	W
13 Aug	H	FK Jablonec	1-2	L

Super Nova

3W 2D 5L · goals 6:11 · per match 0.6 for, 1.1 against

15 Oct	A	Rīgas FS	0-4	L
10 Oct	H	Grobiņa	2-1	W
20 Sep	A	Ogre United	0-1	L
15 Sep	H	Riga	0-1	L
10 Sep	H	Tukums	1-0	W
5 Sep	A	FS Jelgava	1-0	W
29 Aug	A	Auda	1-1	D
22 Aug	H	BFC Daugavpils	0-0	D
16 Aug	H	Rīgas FS	0-1	L
9 Aug	H	FK Liepaja	1-2	L

Head to head

16Rīgas FS wins

0draws

1Super Nova wins

17 meetings · goals 56:12 · last 10: 10W 0D 0L for Rīgas FS

16 Aug 2026Cup	Cup	Super Nova0-1Rīgas FS
29 May 2026Virsliga	Virsliga	Super Nova1-2Rīgas FS
18 Apr 2026Virsliga	Virsliga	Rīgas FS2-0Super Nova
14 Jan 2026Friendlies Clubs	Friendlies Clubs	Rīgas FS5-2Super Nova
2 Nov 2025Virsliga	Virsliga	Super Nova1-3Rīgas FS
10 Aug 2025Virsliga	Virsliga	Rīgas FS4-1Super Nova
14 Jun 2025Virsliga	Virsliga	Rīgas FS2-1Super Nova
20 Apr 2025Virsliga	Virsliga	Super Nova1-2Rīgas FS
11 Jan 2025Friendlies Clubs	Friendlies Clubs	Rīgas FS7-0Super Nova
5 Nov 2023Virsliga	Virsliga	Super Nova0-4Rīgas FS

Virsliga tableVirsligaupdated 17 Oct 15:02 UTC

In the Virsliga table, Rīgas FS sit 1st with 80 points from 32 games, while Super Nova are 6th with 38 points from 32.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Rīgas FS	32	25	5	2	79:24	+55	80
2	Riga	32	23	7	2	88:30	+58	76
3	Auda	32	19	7	6	52:32	+20	64
4	FK Liepaja	32	12	7	13	43:46	-3	43
5	BFC Daugavpils	32	11	9	12	37:36	+1	42
6	Super Nova	32	11	5	16	31:45	-14	38
7	FS Jelgava	32	8	8	16	34:53	-19	32
8	Grobiņa	33	6	11	16	25:56	-31	29
9	Tukums	32	5	9	18	44:63	-19	24
10	Ogre United	33	4	6	23	33:81	-48	18

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg182%1.11X12%7.4726%15.7

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 4.8% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.14 → 1.10 -3.5%X6.60 → 7.87 +19.2%213.0 → 17.3 +33.3%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	1.38	2.87	7.3%
Bet365	1.44	2.62	7.6%
BetVictor	1.40	2.75	7.8%
Betfair	1.36	2.88	8.3%
1xBet	1.38	2.62	10.6%
Marathonbet	1.38	2.62	10.6%
Best of all books	1.44	2.88	4.2%
Average	1.39	2.73	8.6%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Bet365	2.50	1.50	6.7%
Betfair	2.30	1.57	7.2%
BetVictor	2.40	1.50	8.3%
William Hill	2.40	1.50	8.3%
1xBet	2.34	1.51	9.0%
Marathonbet	2.34	1.49	9.8%
Best of all books	2.50	1.57	3.7%
Average	2.38	1.51	8.2%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Rīgas FS 45%Draw 45%Super Nova 10%

The statistical model rated Rīgas FS at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Super Nova at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.11 | 7.47 | 15.72, which imply roughly 90.1% for a Rīgas FS win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Virsliga table: Rīgas FS are 1st (80 pts, 79-24 goals), Super Nova 6th (38 pts, 31-45).

Over their last five matches, Rīgas FS averaged 2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game; Super Nova averaged 0.8 scored and 0.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Rīgas FS or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Rīgas FS

4-2-3-1

Goalkeeper

16Jevgēņijs Ņerugals

Defence

6Aleksandar Filipović
23Herdi Prenga
43Žiga Lipušček

Midfield

18Dmitrijs Zelenkovs
66Modou Saidy
26Stefan Panić
19Alfa Baldé
10Jānis Ikaunieks
8Lasha Odisharia

Attack

22Darko Lemajić

Substitutes (9)

1Rihards Matrevics
99Shina Kumater
30Haruna Njie
5Niks Sliede
11Roberts Savaļnieks
49Mārtiņš Ķigurs
17Cedric Kouadio
9Duje Korač
15Rostand Ndjiki

Super Nova

4-4-2

Goalkeeper

90Davis Veisbuks

Defence

20Ibrahima Diop
16Kristaps Romanovs
5Jegors Cirulis
21Milans Tihonovics

Midfield

9Samate Amadou
8Ivans Patrikejevs
24Ralfs Šitjakovs
15Raivis Kirss
22Kristers Skadmanis

Attack

27Ndiaye Pathé

Substitutes (7)

31Toms Petrovics
3Rikuto Iida
2Kristers Augusts
18Mikus Vasilevskis
7Agris Glaudans
6Eduards Emsis
29Aram Baghdasaryan

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.10	7.87	17.3

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.02	5.37	1.05

Draw no bet

1	2
1.02	11.6

Both teams to score

Yes	No
2.38	1.51

1st half

1	X	2
1.41	3.12	12.7

2nd half

1	X	2
1.31	3.77	11.5

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	1.45	27.2	100.0
HT X	4.00	11.2	31.8
HT 2	21.8	28.2	29.4

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.17	23.0	4.85

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.01	14.3
1.5	1.10	5.65
2.5	1.39	2.73
3.5	2.00	1.72
4.5	3.16	1.31
5.5	5.43	1.10
6.5	9.00	1.04
7.5	13.0	1.01
8.5	21.0	–
9.5	21.0	–

14 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.01	12.0
1.75	1.11	4.90
2	1.13	4.50
2.25	1.26	3.20
2.75	1.46	2.44
3	1.59	2.16
3.25	1.81	1.88
3.75	2.22	1.56
4	2.54	1.44
4.25	2.74	1.38
4.75	3.76	1.19
5	4.85	1.11
5.25	5.15	1.10
6	8.90	1.01

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-2.75	2.24	1.57
-2.5	1.99	1.72
-2.25	1.79	1.92
-2	1.60	2.16
-1.75	1.47	2.46
-1.5	1.44	2.58

14 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-5.5	8.50	1.01
-4.5	5.55	1.08
-4.25	5.41	1.11
-4	5.13	1.12
-3.75	3.83	1.21
-3.5	3.19	1.29
-3.25	2.94	1.34
-3	2.67	1.41
-1.25	1.27	3.34
-1	1.14	4.73
-0.75	1.12	5.20
-0.5	1.13	5.90
-0.25	1.07	7.17
0	1.02	11.6