Riga vs Super Nova• Virsliga, Latvia

#21.4:0.613:00Tomorrow · Skonto stadions, Riga0.6:1.4#6

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.12B365X9.73PIN220.0BVCMargin at best4.6%Books6Markets71Rating73 · 27Exp. goals L52.0

Price board · 1X2captured 17 Oct 20:33 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	1.10	9.73	17.1	7.0%
William Hill	1.10	8.50	19.0	7.9%
Bet365	1.12	8.00	15.0	8.5%
BetVictor	1.09	8.50	20.0	8.5%
Marathonbet	1.06	8.10	19.3	11.9%
1xBet	1.06	8.10	19.0	11.9%
Best of all books	1.12	9.73	20.0	4.6%
Average	1.09	8.49	18.2	9.2%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

RigaSuper Nova

Last 10#2Table position#62.38Points per game1.1913Form pts · last 561.4Goals for · last 50.60.6Goals against · last 51.470Attack rating3070Defence rating3065Form rating35100H2H rating078Goals model2273Overall rating27

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 02:02 UTC

Riga

6W 3D 1L · goals 17:11 · per match 1.7 for, 1.1 against

15 Oct	H	Kairat Almaty	1-1	D
10 Oct	A	Tukums	2-0	W
3 Oct	A	Aris	2-1	W
19 Sep	A	FS Jelgava	1-0	W
15 Sep	A	Super Nova	1-0	W
11 Sep	H	Auda	2-2	D
7 Sep	H	BFC Daugavpils	1-1	D
3 Sep	A	Rīgas FS	3-2	W
31 Aug	A	FK Liepaja	2-3	L
27 Aug	H	KI Klaksvik	2-1	W

Super Nova

3W 2D 5L · goals 6:11 · per match 0.6 for, 1.1 against

15 Oct	A	Rīgas FS	0-4	L
10 Oct	H	Grobiņa	2-1	W
20 Sep	A	Ogre United	0-1	L
15 Sep	H	Riga	0-1	L
10 Sep	H	Tukums	1-0	W
5 Sep	A	FS Jelgava	1-0	W
29 Aug	A	Auda	1-1	D
22 Aug	H	BFC Daugavpils	0-0	D
16 Aug	H	Rīgas FS	0-1	L
9 Aug	H	FK Liepaja	1-2	L

Head to head

14Riga wins

1draws

0Super Nova wins

15 meetings · goals 49:9 · last 10: 9W 1D 0L for Riga

15 Sep 2026Virsliga	Virsliga	Super Nova0-1Riga
24 May 2026Virsliga	Virsliga	Riga3-0Super Nova
14 Apr 2026Virsliga	Virsliga	Super Nova1-4Riga
30 Aug 2025Virsliga	Virsliga	Super Nova2-6Riga
22 Jun 2025Virsliga	Virsliga	Riga2-0Super Nova
1 May 2025Virsliga	Virsliga	Super Nova1-5Riga
6 Mar 2025Virsliga	Virsliga	Riga2-0Super Nova
29 Oct 2023Virsliga	Virsliga	Riga1-1Super Nova
6 Aug 2023Virsliga	Virsliga	Super Nova1-5Riga
31 May 2023Virsliga	Virsliga	Riga5-1Super Nova

Virsliga tableVirsligaupdated 17 Oct 15:02 UTC

In the Virsliga table, Riga sit 2nd with 76 points from 32 games, while Super Nova are 6th with 38 points from 32.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Rīgas FS	32	25	5	2	79:24	+55	80
2	Riga	32	23	7	2	88:30	+58	76
3	Auda	32	19	7	6	52:32	+20	64
4	FK Liepaja	32	12	7	13	43:46	-3	43
5	BFC Daugavpils	32	11	9	12	37:36	+1	42
6	Super Nova	32	11	5	16	31:45	-14	38
7	FS Jelgava	32	8	8	16	34:53	-19	32
8	Grobiņa	33	6	11	16	25:56	-31	29
9	Tukums	32	5	9	18	44:63	-19	24
10	Ogre United	33	4	6	23	33:81	-48	18

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg184%1.09X11%8.4925%18.2

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 4.6% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.09 → 1.09 0.0%X7.74 → 8.49 +9.7%218.2 → 18.2 +0.2%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.33	3.25	6.0%
Pinnacle	1.37	2.90	7.5%
BetVictor	1.30	3.20	8.2%
1xBet	1.28	3.05	10.9%
Marathonbet	1.28	3.05	10.9%
Best of all books	1.37	3.25	3.8%
Average	1.31	3.09	8.6%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Bet365	2.10	1.67	7.5%
William Hill	2.10	1.67	7.5%
BetVictor	2.15	1.62	8.2%
1xBet	2.11	1.62	9.1%
Marathonbet	2.11	1.60	9.9%
Best of all books	2.15	1.67	6.4%
Average	2.11	1.64	8.4%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Riga 50%Draw 50%Super Nova 0%

The statistical model rates Riga at 50% to win, the draw at 50% and Super Nova at 0% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.09 | 8.49 | 18.23, which imply roughly 91.7% for a Riga win versus the model's 50%.

Form context from the Virsliga table: Riga are 2nd (76 pts, 88-30 goals), Super Nova 6th (38 pts, 31-45).

Over their last five matches, Riga averaged 1.4 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game; Super Nova averaged 0.6 scored and 1.4 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Riga or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.09	8.49	18.2

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.02	5.75	1.07

Draw no bet

1	2
1.02	13.0

Both teams to score

Yes	No
2.11	1.64

1st half

1	X	2
1.40	3.24	12.4

2nd half

1	X	2
1.29	4.01	11.8

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	1.44	27.3	74.0
HT X	3.91	11.7	30.7
HT 2	22.3	29.7	30.0

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.16	23.5	4.88

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.01	16.3
1.5	1.06	6.67
2.5	1.31	3.09
3.5	1.81	1.88
4.5	2.84	1.36
5.5	4.67	1.14
6.5	8.00	1.06
7.5	11.0	1.02
8.5	17.0	–

14 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.01	14.0
1.75	1.06	6.25
2	1.07	5.75
2.25	1.18	3.90
2.75	1.34	2.86
3	1.43	2.54
3.25	1.62	2.13
3.75	1.98	1.72
4	2.26	1.53
4.25	2.52	1.43
4.75	3.20	1.26
5	4.10	1.16
5.25	4.40	1.14
6	8.00	1.02

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-3	2.51	1.46
-2.75	2.15	1.62
-2.5	1.92	1.80
-2.25	1.72	2.00
-2	1.54	2.32
-1.75	1.43	2.59

13 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-4.5	5.28	1.11
-4.25	5.14	1.12
-4	4.85	1.13
-3.75	3.63	1.23
-3.5	3.08	1.31
-3.25	2.80	1.38
-1.5	1.38	2.78
-1.25	1.25	3.47
-1	1.14	4.80
-0.75	1.11	5.35
-0.5	1.14	5.75
-0.25	1.07	8.18
0	1.02	17.0

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
10.5	1.92	1.88