FK Liepaja vs FS Jelgava• Virsliga, Latvia

#41.4:1.413:00Tomorrow · Daugavas stadions, Jelgava1.2:1.4#7

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.70WHX3.74MAR24.361XBMargin at best8.5%Books4Markets58Rating61 · 39Exp. goals L52.7

Price board · 1X2captured 17 Oct 20:33 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
1xBet	1.64	3.74	4.36	10.6%
William Hill	1.70	3.50	4.20	11.2%
Bet365	1.67	3.70	4.00	11.9%
Marathonbet	1.62	3.74	4.25	12.0%
Best of all books	1.70	3.74	4.36	8.5%
Average	1.66	3.67	4.20	11.4%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

FK LiepajaFS Jelgava

Last 10#4Table position#71.34Points per game1.006Form pts · last 541.4Goals for · last 51.21.4Goals against · last 51.454Attack rating4650Defence rating5060Form rating4075H2H rating2563Goals model3761Overall rating39

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 07:31 UTC

FK Liepaja

3W 3D 4L · goals 14:15 · per match 1.4 for, 1.5 against

12 Oct	H	Auda	2-3	L
19 Sep	H	BFC Daugavpils	0-0	D
11 Sep	A	Ogre United	2-2	D
7 Sep	A	Rīgas FS	0-0	D
31 Aug	H	Riga	3-2	W
25 Aug	A	Auda	0-1	L
21 Aug	H	Grobiņa	3-1	W
9 Aug	A	Super Nova	2-1	W
2 Aug	A	Tukums	1-2	L
30 Jul	A	Austria Vienna	1-3	L

FS Jelgava

2W 1D 7L · goals 10:15 · per match 1.0 for, 1.5 against

11 Oct	A	Rīgas FS	2-4	L
19 Sep	H	Riga	0-1	L
12 Sep	A	Grobiņa	0-0	D
5 Sep	H	Super Nova	0-1	L
29 Aug	A	Tukums	4-1	W
22 Aug	A	Ogre United	3-2	W
9 Aug	H	Auda	0-1	L
1 Aug	A	BFC Daugavpils	1-2	L
26 Jul	H	FK Liepaja	0-2	L
20 Jul	H	Rīgas FS	0-1	L

Head to head

8FK Liepaja wins

6draws

3FS Jelgava wins

17 meetings · goals 29:20 · last 10: 6W 4D 0L for FK Liepaja

26 Jul 2026Virsliga	Virsliga	FS Jelgava0-2FK Liepaja
26 May 2026Virsliga	Virsliga	FS Jelgava1-1FK Liepaja
12 Apr 2026Virsliga	Virsliga	FK Liepaja1-1FS Jelgava
27 Feb 2026Friendlies Clubs	Friendlies Clubs	FK Liepaja2-1FS Jelgava
25 Oct 2025Virsliga	Virsliga	FK Liepaja2-2FS Jelgava
2 Aug 2025Virsliga	Virsliga	FS Jelgava1-2FK Liepaja
30 May 2025Virsliga	Virsliga	FS Jelgava0-1FK Liepaja
14 Apr 2025Virsliga	Virsliga	FK Liepaja1-0FS Jelgava
3 Nov 2024Virsliga	Virsliga	FS Jelgava2-2FK Liepaja
10 Aug 2024Virsliga	Virsliga	FK Liepaja3-0FS Jelgava

Virsliga tableVirsligaupdated 17 Oct 15:02 UTC

In the Virsliga table, FK Liepaja sit 4th with 43 points from 32 games, while FS Jelgava are 7th with 32 points from 32.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Rīgas FS	32	25	5	2	79:24	+55	80
2	Riga	32	23	7	2	88:30	+58	76
3	Auda	32	19	7	6	52:32	+20	64
4	FK Liepaja	32	12	7	13	43:46	-3	43
5	BFC Daugavpils	32	11	9	12	37:36	+1	42
6	Super Nova	32	11	5	16	31:45	-14	38
7	FS Jelgava	32	8	8	16	34:53	-19	32
8	Grobiņa	33	6	11	16	25:56	-31	29
9	Tukums	32	5	9	18	44:63	-19	24
10	Ogre United	33	4	6	23	33:81	-48	18

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg154%1.66X24%3.67221%4.20

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 8.5% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.69 → 1.66 -1.8%X3.68 → 3.67 -0.3%24.03 → 4.20 +4.2%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.70	2.10	6.4%
1xBet	1.61	2.13	9.1%
Marathonbet	1.61	2.13	9.1%
Best of all books	1.70	2.13	5.8%
Average	1.64	2.12	8.1%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	1.67	2.10	7.5%
Bet365	1.73	2.00	7.8%
1xBet	1.61	2.13	9.1%
Marathonbet	1.61	2.09	10.0%
Best of all books	1.73	2.13	4.8%
Average	1.66	2.08	8.5%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

FK Liepaja 45%Draw 45%FS Jelgava 10%

The statistical model rates FK Liepaja at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and FS Jelgava at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.66 | 3.67 | 4.20, which imply roughly 60.2% for a FK Liepaja win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Virsliga table: FK Liepaja are 4th (43 pts, 43-46 goals), FS Jelgava 7th (32 pts, 34-53).

Over their last five matches, FK Liepaja averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game; FS Jelgava averaged 1.2 scored and 1.4 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : FK Liepaja or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.66	3.67	4.20

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.16	2.01	1.20

Draw no bet

1	2
1.30	3.35

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.66	2.08

1st half

1	X	2
2.20	2.28	4.51

2nd half

1	X	2
1.99	2.62	4.19

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	2.47	15.0	39.0
HT X	4.58	6.17	9.83
HT 2	21.7	16.0	7.33

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.54	14.0	2.54

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.02	12.8
1.5	1.18	4.10
2.5	1.64	2.12
3.5	2.53	1.43
4.5	4.50	1.14
5.5	8.33	1.03
6.5	12.0	1.01
7.5	17.0	–

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.02	9.30
1.25	1.07	5.75
1.75	1.19	3.74
2	1.25	3.28
2.25	1.43	2.51
2.75	1.76	1.89
3	1.99	1.66
3.25	2.24	1.52
3.75	2.97	1.30
4	3.82	1.18
4.25	4.15	1.16
4.75	5.65	1.08
5	7.80	1.02

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	2.72	1.38
-1.25	2.45	1.47
-1	2.15	1.62
-0.75	1.84	1.84
-0.5	1.70	2.10
-0.25	1.46	2.45

13 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-3.5	9.90	1.01
-3	9.00	1.02
-2.75	6.83	1.06
-2.5	5.30	1.12
-2.25	4.90	1.13
-2	4.47	1.16
-1.75	3.34	1.27
0	1.28	3.23
+0.25	1.22	3.69
+0.5	1.22	4.15
+0.75	1.11	5.43
+1	1.01	8.50
+1.25	1.02	7.70

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
9.5	1.73	2.00
10	2.00	1.80