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Bahia vs Sao Paulo• Serie A, Brazil

#70.6:1.400:3029/10 · Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador1.0:1.2#9

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.10PINX3.60DAF23.90DAFMargin at best1.0%Books9Markets69Rating41 · 59Exp. goals L52.1

Price board · 1X2captured 26 Oct 00:02 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
Dafabet2.003.653.754.1%
1xBet2.063.593.594.3%
Betano2.003.553.754.8%
Pinnacle2.023.573.645.0%
Marathonbet2.003.483.487.5%
BetVictor1.953.503.607.6%
Bet3651.913.403.808.1%
Betfair1.953.503.508.4%
William Hill2.003.403.408.8%
Best of all books2.063.653.802.3%
Average1.993.523.616.4%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

BahiaSao Paulo
Last 10#7Table position#91.56Points per game1.344Form pts · last 570.6Goals for · last 51.01.4Goals against · last 51.238Attack rating6346Defence rating5436Form rating6429H2H rating7166Goals model3441Overall rating59

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 26 Oct 00:00 UTC

Bahia

5W 2D 3L · goals 16:15 · per match 1.6 for, 1.5 against

25 OctASantos1-1D
18 OctHFlamengo0-3L
11 OctHMirassol1-0W
9 OctAPalmeiras0-1L
20 SepAAtletico Paranaense1-2L
14 SepHRemo2-1W
5 SepARB Bragantino3-2W
30 AugHInternacional3-2W
23 AugAVitoria2-0W
16 AugAChapecoense-sc3-3D

Sao Paulo

4W 2D 4L · goals 9:10 · per match 0.9 for, 1.0 against

24 OctAMirassol1-1D
18 OctHVasco DA Gama1-0W
11 OctHVitoria2-1W
8 OctACruzeiro0-2L
2 OctHSantos1-2L
20 SepHInternacional1-0W
16 SepHBoca Juniors1-1D
12 SepAPalmeiras0-2L
9 SepABoca Juniors0-1L
5 SepHAtletico-MG2-0W

Head to head

8Bahia wins
7draws
12Sao Paulo wins

27 meetings · goals 23:35 · last 10: 2W 2D 6L for Bahia

3 May 2026Serie ASerie ASao Paulo2-2Bahia
26 Oct 2025Serie ASerie ASao Paulo2-0Bahia
31 May 2025Serie ASerie ABahia2-1Sao Paulo
6 Nov 2024Serie ASerie ABahia0-3Sao Paulo
30 Jun 2024Serie ASerie ASao Paulo3-1Bahia
29 Nov 2023Serie ASerie ABahia0-1Sao Paulo
30 Jul 2023Serie ASerie ASao Paulo0-0Bahia
7 Nov 2021Serie ASerie ABahia1-0Sao Paulo
10 Jul 2021Serie ASerie ASao Paulo1-0Bahia
28 Nov 2020Serie ASerie ABahia1-3Sao Paulo

Serie A tableSerie Aupdated 25 Oct 04:10 UTC

In the Serie A table, Bahia sit 7th with 50 points from 32 games, while Sao Paulo are 9th with 43 points from 32.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Palmeiras32209356:22+3469
2Flamengo31207461:25+3667
3Cruzeiro321661051:46+554
4Atletico Paranaense32159850:38+1254
5Fluminense32149950:41+951
6Atletico-MG31148942:35+750
7Bahia321311845:40+550
8Santos3212101049:47+246
9Sao Paulo321271337:36+143
10RB Bragantino321181339:38+141
11Botafogo321091344:51-739
12Coritiba311091238:49-1139
13Vasco DA Gama311081339:45-638
14Vitoria321081435:46-1138
15Mirassol329101337:45-837
16Internacional328111336:40-435
17Corinthians32891534:42-833
18Gremio317101434:44-1031
19Remo325111634:50-1626
20Chapecoense-sc31491832:63-3121

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg147%2.00X27%3.48226%3.63

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 1.0% margin.

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
Betano1.931.933.6%
1xBet1.911.934.2%
Pinnacle1.832.014.4%
Bet3651.851.955.3%
Marathonbet1.861.887.0%
BetVictor1.801.879.0%
Best of all books1.932.011.6%
Average1.861.935.5%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Betano1.752.026.6%
William Hill1.672.107.5%
Bet3651.702.057.6%
1xBet1.702.047.8%
Marathonbet1.702.018.6%
BetVictor1.672.058.7%
Best of all books1.752.104.8%
Average1.702.047.8%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Bahia 10%Draw 45%Sao Paulo 45%

The statistical model rates Bahia at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Sao Paulo at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.00 | 3.48 | 3.63, which imply roughly 28.7% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Serie A table: Bahia are 7th (50 pts, 45-40 goals), Sao Paulo 9th (43 pts, 37-36).

Over their last five matches, Bahia averaged 0.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game; Sao Paulo averaged 1 scored and 1.2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Sao Paulo.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
1.993.523.61

Double chance

1XX212
1.281.791.29

Draw no bet

12
1.442.61

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.702.05

1st half

1X2
2.552.203.99

2nd half

1X2
2.342.483.61

HT/FT

HT / FTFT 1FT XFT 2
HT 13.0914.235.3
HT X5.015.308.00
HT 225.815.15.95

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
1.6811.52.32

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.0410.1
1.51.263.66
2.51.861.93
3.53.121.35
4.55.891.11
5.510.11.05
6.516.11.02
7.531.3–
13 more lines
LineOverUnder
0.751.0110.3
11.028.40
1.251.144.72
1.751.323.10
21.422.78
2.251.632.21
2.752.051.71
32.471.51
3.252.751.38
3.753.771.21
45.141.12
4.255.451.10
58.901.04

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-12.871.39
-0.752.261.59
-0.51.971.84
-0.251.712.07
01.472.63
+0.251.353.07
12 more lines
LineHomeAway
-3.513.01.02
-2.57.601.05
-2.257.181.06
-26.761.07
-1.754.601.16
-1.53.601.26
-1.253.241.31
+0.51.283.65
+0.751.184.40
+11.076.51
+1.251.056.92
+1.51.057.41

Cards in match

LineOverUnder
5.51.831.83

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
7.51.114.29
8.51.243.39
9.51.422.56
10.51.732.00
11.52.161.62
12.52.781.37
13.53.271.20
14.54.191.11
8 more lines
LineOverUnder
81.124.05
91.262.92
101.512.23
111.961.79
122.401.44
133.051.24
144.001.13
155.091.06

Next Serie A matches

26 OctCoritiba – Gremio
26 OctFlamengo – Atletico-MG
28 OctSantos – Palmeiras
28 OctRB Bragantino – Chapecoense-sc
28 OctFluminense – Internacional
29 OctRemo – Botafogo

All Serie A fixtures and the table

Latest Serie A results

25 OctSantos 1-1 Bahia
24 OctChapecoense-sc 2-1 Fluminense
24 OctVasco DA Gama 3-2 Corinthians
24 OctPalmeiras 2-0 RB Bragantino
24 OctVitoria 1-1 Atletico Paranaense
24 OctMirassol 1-1 Sao Paulo