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Santos vs Bahia• Serie A, Brazil

#81.8:1.41-1FTToday · Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Santos0.8:1.4#7

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.88BTNX4.20BTN24.10B365Margin at best1.4%Books9Markets97Rating54 · 46 levelExp. goals L52.7

Price board · 1X2captured 24 Oct 20:05 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
Betano1.884.203.902.6%
Dafabet1.874.103.903.5%
Pinnacle1.864.183.873.5%
1xBet1.873.983.924.1%
BetVictor1.834.003.806.0%
Bet3651.803.904.006.2%
Betfair1.804.003.806.9%
Marathonbet1.813.853.807.5%
William Hill1.803.803.609.6%
Best of all books1.884.204.002.0%
Average1.844.003.845.5%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

SantosBahia
Last 10#8Table position#71.44Points per game1.568Form pts · last 561.8Goals for · last 50.81.4Goals against · last 51.469Attack rating3150Defence rating5063Form rating3850H2H rating5046Goals model5454Overall rating46

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 25 Oct 03:30 UTC

Santos

6W 2D 2L · goals 19:15 · per match 1.9 for, 1.5 against

25 OctHBahia1-1D
18 OctAFluminense2-1W
11 OctAAtletico-MG1-2L
8 OctHFlamengo2-2D
2 OctASao Paulo2-1W
19 SepARemo2-1W
16 SepAAtletico-MG2-4L
13 SepHCruzeiro2-1W
9 SepHAtletico-MG2-0W
6 SepAInternacional3-2W

Bahia

5W 2D 3L · goals 15:14 · per match 1.5 for, 1.4 against

18 OctHFlamengo0-3L
11 OctHMirassol1-0W
9 OctAPalmeiras0-1L
20 SepAAtletico Paranaense1-2L
14 SepHRemo2-1W
5 SepARB Bragantino3-2W
30 AugHInternacional3-2W
23 AugAVitoria2-0W
16 AugAChapecoense-sc3-3D
9 AugHVasco DA Gama0-0D

Head to head

11Santos wins
8draws
6Bahia wins

25 meetings · goals 31:23 · last 10: 2W 5D 3L for Santos

25 Apr 2026Serie ASerie ABahia2-2Santos
24 Aug 2025Serie ASerie ABahia2-0Santos
6 Apr 2025Serie ASerie ASantos2-2Bahia
18 Sep 2023Serie ASerie ABahia1-2Santos
31 May 2023Copa Do BrasilCopa Do BrasilBahia1-1Santos
17 May 2023Copa Do BrasilCopa Do BrasilSantos0-0Bahia
10 May 2023Serie ASerie ASantos3-0Bahia
12 Sep 2021Serie ASerie ASantos0-0Bahia
29 May 2021Serie ASerie ABahia3-0Santos
26 Feb 2021Serie ASerie ABahia2-0Santos

Serie A tableSerie Aupdated 25 Oct 04:10 UTC

In the Serie A table, Santos sit 8th with 46 points from 32 games, while Bahia are 7th with 50 points from 32.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Palmeiras32209356:22+3469
2Flamengo31207461:25+3667
3Cruzeiro321661051:46+554
4Atletico Paranaense32159850:38+1254
5Fluminense32149950:41+951
6Atletico-MG31148942:35+750
7Bahia321311845:40+550
8Santos3212101049:47+246
9Sao Paulo321271337:36+143
10RB Bragantino321181339:38+141
11Botafogo321091344:51-739
12Coritiba311091238:49-1139
13Vasco DA Gama311081339:45-638
14Vitoria321081435:46-1138
15Mirassol329101337:45-837
16Internacional328111336:40-435
17Corinthians32891534:42-833
18Gremio317101434:44-1031
19Remo325111634:50-1626
20Chapecoense-sc31491832:63-3121

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg152%1.84X24%4.00225%3.84

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 1.4% margin.

1X2 since open average price

22 Oct 00:0124 Oct 17:011 1.83X 3.972 3.87
11.96 → 1.83 -6.6%X3.58 → 3.97 +10.9%23.54 → 3.87 +9.3%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
Pinnacle1.552.553.7%
Betano1.552.524.2%
Betfair1.532.456.2%
1xBet1.552.396.4%
Bet3651.532.407.0%
BetVictor1.522.319.1%
Marathonbet1.492.3010.6%
Best of all books1.552.553.7%
Average1.532.426.7%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Betfair1.502.555.9%
Betano1.522.456.6%
Bet3651.502.506.7%
William Hill1.532.387.4%
1xBet1.502.428.0%
Marathonbet1.502.388.7%
BetVictor1.472.458.8%
Best of all books1.532.554.6%
Average1.502.457.4%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Santos 45%Draw 45%Bahia 10%

The statistical model rated Santos at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Bahia at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.84 | 4.00 | 3.84, which imply roughly 54.3% for a Santos win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Serie A table: Santos are 8th (46 pts, 49-47 goals), Bahia 7th (50 pts, 45-40).

Over their last five matches, Santos averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game; Bahia averaged 0.8 scored and 1.4 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Santos or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Santos

4-2-3-1

Coach: Cuca

Goalkeeper

  • 1Diógenes

Defence

  • 23Rodinei
  • 42João Alencar
  • 14Luan Peres
  • 22Á. Barreal

Midfield

  • 48Gustavo Henrique Pereira
  • 8Gabriel Bontempo
  • 7Everton
  • 11Philippe Coutinho
  • 10Neymar

Attack

  • 9Gabriel Barbosa
Substitutes (12)
  • 17G. Caballero
  • 26João Paulo Ananias
  • 25Gabriel Menino
  • 45Lima
  • 28C. Oliva
  • 32B. Rollheiser
  • 5João Schmidt
  • 34João Paulo
  • 30M. Terceros
  • 33Rony
  • 38Rafael Gonzaga
  • 18Igor Vinicius

Bahia

4-3-3

Coach: Rogério Ceni

Goalkeeper

  • 1Ronaldo

Defence

  • 44Marcos Victor
  • 33David Duarte
  • 4Kanu
  • 46Luciano Juba

Midfield

  • 14Erick
  • 5N. Acevedo
  • 11Rodrigo Nestor

Attack

  • 99C. Olivera
  • 9A. Véliz
  • 16Erick Pulga
Substitutes (12)
  • 10Éverton Ribeiro
  • 12Willian José
  • 7Ademir
  • 27Everaldo
  • 8Caio Alexandre
  • 67Wendel Silva
  • 23M. Sanabria
  • 3Marco Moreno
  • 17G. Herrera
  • 77Ruan Pablo
  • 15M. Araújo
  • 66Zé Guilherme

Match Statistics

SantosBahia
2.1Expected Goals1.57
185Passes accurate134
16Shots insidebox13
7Shots outsidebox3
5Blocked Shots6
23Free Kicks14
11Shots on Goal2
7Shots off Goal8
2Offsides2
303Total passes245
1Red Cards0
23Total Shots16
2Yellow Cards2
14Corner Kicks8
0Goalkeeper Saves10
14Fouls23
56%Ball Possession44%

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
1.844.003.84

Double chance

1XX212
1.251.941.24

Draw no bet

12
1.392.85

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.502.45

1st half

1X2
2.322.424.04

2nd half

1X2
2.122.723.73

HT/FT

HT / FTFT 1FT XFT 2
HT 12.7513.930.6
HT X5.026.489.03
HT 219.614.46.24

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
1.6117.52.34

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.0214.4
1.51.165.00
2.51.532.42
3.52.351.59
4.54.061.22
5.57.421.07
6.512.51.03
7.517.21.01
8.531.3–
14 more lines
LineOverUnder
11.029.80
1.251.076.21
1.751.164.29
21.253.70
2.251.422.70
2.751.652.15
31.841.92
3.252.091.71
3.752.681.42
43.331.29
4.253.641.23
4.754.861.13
56.651.07
5.256.921.05

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-1.252.721.43
-12.421.53
-0.752.021.75
-0.51.822.00
-0.251.602.29
01.392.93
13 more lines
LineHomeAway
-3.511.11.03
-2.55.861.11
-2.255.481.11
-25.091.14
-1.753.651.24
-1.53.051.36
+0.251.313.32
+0.51.273.86
+0.751.154.74
+11.066.87
+1.251.047.27
+1.51.057.60
+2.51.0113.0

Cards in match

LineOverUnder
2.51.106.20
3.51.253.75
4.51.572.34
5.52.061.72
6.52.721.42
7.53.601.26
8.55.101.14
9.57.201.07
10.59.501.04
3 more lines
LineOverUnder
41.333.07
51.931.84
62.851.38

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
4.51.0112.5
5.51.029.75
6.51.066.41
7.51.144.57
8.51.273.21
9.51.502.38
10.51.861.88
11.52.321.52
12.53.041.31
13.54.101.17
14.55.611.09
15.58.201.05
16.59.751.03
17.511.81.02
16 more lines
LineOverUnder
71.065.27
81.143.82
91.292.75
9.251.362.69
9.751.502.31
101.602.20
10.251.682.03
10.751.911.83
112.021.72
11.252.131.62
11.752.421.46
122.551.39
12.252.781.34
133.251.21
144.251.11
155.351.05

Next Serie A matches

26 OctCoritiba – Gremio
26 OctFlamengo – Atletico-MG
28 OctRB Bragantino – Chapecoense-sc
28 OctFluminense – Internacional
28 OctSantos – Palmeiras

All Serie A fixtures and the table

Latest Serie A results

24 OctChapecoense-sc 2-1 Fluminense
24 OctVasco DA Gama 3-2 Corinthians
24 OctPalmeiras 2-0 RB Bragantino
24 OctInternacional 3-0 Botafogo
24 OctMirassol 1-1 Sao Paulo
24 OctVitoria 1-1 Atletico Paranaense