Defensor Sporting vs Penarol• Primera División, Uruguay

#111.8:2.023:0015/11 · Estadio Luis Franzini, Montevideo0.6:0.6#1

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

15.061XBX3.80BFR21.67WHMargin at best6.0%Books7Markets78Rating31 · 69Exp. goals L52.5

Price board · 1X2captured 12 Nov 02:21 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Betfair	4.75	3.80	1.67	7.2%
Pinnacle	4.88	3.71	1.66	7.7%
William Hill	4.80	3.50	1.67	9.3%
Betano	4.60	3.60	1.65	10.1%
1xBet	5.06	3.54	1.60	10.5%
Bet365	4.50	3.50	1.65	11.4%
Marathonbet	4.95	3.54	1.58	11.7%
Best of all books	5.06	3.80	1.67	6.0%
Average	4.79	3.60	1.64	9.6%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Defensor SportingPenarol

Last 10#11Table position#11.11Points per game1.864Form pts · last 531.8Goals for · last 50.62.0Goals against · last 50.675Attack rating2523Defence rating7740Form rating607H2H rating9322Goals model7831Overall rating69

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 12 Nov 00:01 UTC

Defensor Sporting

3W 2D 5L · goals 14:15 · per match 1.4 for, 1.5 against

1 Nov	A	Progreso	2-0	W
24 Oct	H	Racing Montevideo	3-3	D
17 Oct	A	Boston River	0-1	L
10 Oct	H	Cerro	2-3	L
3 Oct	A	Albion FC	2-3	L
30 Sep	H	Plaza Colonia	0-1	L
27 Sep	H	Danubio	1-0	W
20 Sep	A	Club Nacional	2-3	L
13 Sep	H	Deportivo Maldonado	1-0	W
9 Sep	A	Cerro Largo	1-1	D

Penarol

3W 5D 2L · goals 9:9 · per match 0.9 for, 0.9 against

31 Oct	H	Wanderers	1-1	D
27 Oct	H	Atletico Torque	0-2	L
23 Oct	A	Juventud	0-0	D
18 Oct	A	Liverpool Montevideo	0-1	L
10 Oct	H	Progreso	1-1	D
4 Oct	A	Racing Montevideo	1-0	W
30 Sep	A	Atletico Torque	1-1	D
26 Sep	H	Boston River	2-1	W
24 Sep	A	Danubio	1-1	D
19 Sep	A	Cerro	2-1	W

Head to head

6Defensor Sporting wins

8draws

19Penarol wins

33 meetings · goals 31:55 · last 10: 0W 1D 9L for Defensor Sporting

24 May 2026Primera División	Primera División	Defensor Sporting0-2Penarol
4 May 2026Primera División	Primera División	Penarol1-1Defensor Sporting
2 Nov 2025Primera División - Clausura	Primera División - Clausura	Penarol2-1Defensor Sporting
16 Oct 2025Copa Uruguay	Copa Uruguay	Defensor Sporting0-2Penarol
7 Jun 2025Primera División - Apertura	Primera División - Apertura	Penarol3-0Defensor Sporting
3 May 2025Primera División - Apertura	Primera División - Apertura	Defensor Sporting0-1Penarol
17 Nov 2024Primera División - Clausura	Primera División - Clausura	Penarol2-0Defensor Sporting
27 Jul 2024Primera División - Apertura	Primera División - Apertura	Penarol1-0Defensor Sporting
18 May 2024Primera División - Apertura	Primera División - Apertura	Defensor Sporting0-2Penarol
7 Oct 2023Primera División - Clausura	Primera División - Clausura	Penarol2-1Defensor Sporting

Primera División tablePrimera: Tabla Anualupdated 12 Nov 00:20 UTC

In the Primera División table, Defensor Sporting sit 11th with 39 points from 35 games, while Penarol are 1st with 65 points from 35.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Penarol	35	19	9	7	52:28	+24	65
2	Deportivo Maldonado	35	18	9	8	54:32	+22	63
3	Atletico Torque	35	19	6	10	59:41	+18	63
4	Club Nacional	35	19	4	12	53:42	+11	61
5	Racing Montevideo	35	16	12	7	45:31	+14	60
6	Liverpool Montevideo	35	16	11	8	47:31	+16	59
7	Wanderers	35	14	9	12	42:44	-2	51
8	Albion FC	35	13	8	14	47:44	+3	47
9	Juventud	35	10	11	14	37:43	-6	41
10	Central Espanol	35	11	8	16	35:48	-13	41
11	Defensor Sporting	35	9	12	14	35:43	-8	39
12	Cerro Largo	35	9	10	16	33:41	-8	37
13	Boston River	35	10	7	18	34:47	-13	37
14	Cerro	35	10	7	18	29:53	-24	37
15	Progreso	35	10	5	20	31:49	-18	35
16	Danubio	35	6	14	15	29:45	-16	32

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg119%4.79X25%3.60256%1.64

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 6.0% margin.

1X2 since open average price

15.08 → 4.79 -5.7%X3.71 → 3.60 -3.0%21.58 → 1.64 +3.8%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	2.10	1.70	6.4%
Betano	2.07	1.72	6.4%
Pinnacle	2.07	1.70	7.1%
1xBet	2.02	1.68	9.0%
Marathonbet	2.02	1.68	9.0%
Best of all books	2.10	1.72	5.8%
Average	2.06	1.70	7.6%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	2.00	1.75	7.1%
Bet365	2.00	1.73	7.8%
Betano	2.02	1.70	8.3%
1xBet	1.98	1.72	8.6%
Marathonbet	1.98	1.70	9.3%
Best of all books	2.02	1.75	6.6%
Average	2.00	1.72	8.2%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Defensor Sporting 10%Draw 45%Penarol 45%

The statistical model rates Defensor Sporting at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Penarol at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 4.79 | 3.60 | 1.64, which imply roughly 27.8% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Primera División table: Defensor Sporting are 11th (39 pts, 35-43 goals), Penarol 1st (65 pts, 52-28).

Over their last five matches, Defensor Sporting averaged 1.8 goals scored and 2 conceded per game; Penarol averaged 0.6 scored and 0.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Penarol.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
4.79	3.60	1.64

Double chance

1X	X2	12
2.12	1.15	1.24

Draw no bet

1	2
3.58	1.26

Both teams to score

Yes	No
2.00	1.72

1st half

1	X	2
5.47	2.13	2.21

2nd half

1	X	2
4.96	2.40	2.03

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	8.80	17.1	26.5
HT X	10.7	5.25	4.28
HT 2	50.5	16.3	2.43

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.99	9.00	1.51

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.04	8.32
1.5	1.33	3.00
2.5	2.06	1.70
3.5	3.59	1.24
4.5	7.15	1.07
5.5	16.0	1.02
6.5	31.5	1.01
7.5	51.0	–

12 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.02	7.80
1	1.04	7.10
1.25	1.17	4.01
1.75	1.40	2.66
2	1.54	2.30
2.25	1.79	1.89
2.75	2.34	1.51
3	2.79	1.38
3.25	3.21	1.27
3.75	4.50	1.13
4	6.30	1.06
4.25	6.70	1.05

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
+0.25	2.61	1.43
+0.5	2.17	1.67
+0.75	1.88	1.82
+1	1.62	2.18
+1.25	1.46	2.51
+1.5	1.38	2.84

12 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	12.4	1.02
-1	8.70	1.02
-0.75	6.50	1.05
-0.5	4.50	1.19
-0.25	4.21	1.18
0	3.67	1.23
+1.75	1.24	3.56
+2	1.14	4.97
+2.25	1.10	5.50
+2.5	1.09	5.88
+2.75	1.03	7.40
+3	1.01	9.80

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
5.5	1.10	4.76
6.5	1.30	3.20
7.5	1.58	2.28
8.5	1.97	1.76
9.5	2.65	1.42
10.5	3.76	1.21
11.5	6.05	1.04

18 more lines

Line	Over	Under
5.75	1.12	4.50
6	1.14	4.26
6.25	1.22	3.46
6.75	1.35	2.81
7	1.40	2.63
7.25	1.51	2.34
7.75	1.70	2.02
8	1.81	1.89
8.25	1.93	1.78
8.75	2.21	1.58
9	2.43	1.47
9.25	2.58	1.42
9.75	3.05	1.29
10	3.54	1.21
10.25	3.72	1.19
10.75	4.56	1.12
11	5.60	1.06
11.25	5.83	1.05

Next Primera División matches

12 Nov	Cerro Largo – Progreso
13 Nov	Atletico Torque – Racing Montevideo
14 Nov	Central Espanol – Boston River
14 Nov	Deportivo Maldonado – Cerro
15 Nov	Danubio – Liverpool Montevideo

All Primera División fixtures and the table

Latest Primera División results

2 Nov	Albion FC 0-0 Deportivo Maldonado
1 Nov	Liverpool Montevideo 2-0 Juventud
1 Nov	Danubio 1-2 Club Nacional
1 Nov	Boston River 1-2 Atletico Torque
1 Nov	Progreso 0-2 Defensor Sporting
31 Oct	Penarol 1-1 Wanderers