Cerro Largo vs Progreso• Primera División, Uruguay

#121.0:1.423:00Today · Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla , Merlot1.2:1.2#15

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.89DAFX3.50PIN24.30DAFMargin at best4.7%Books10Markets78Rating53 · 47 levelExp. goals L52.4

Price board · 1X2captured 12 Nov 08:05 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	1.89	3.50	4.30	4.7%
Betfair	1.85	3.40	4.20	7.3%
William Hill	1.85	3.30	4.00	9.4%
Pinnacle	1.78	3.50	4.03	9.6%
BetVictor	1.80	3.30	4.20	9.7%
Betano	1.83	3.30	4.00	9.9%
Bet365	1.80	3.25	4.20	10.1%
1xBet	1.79	3.28	4.14	10.5%
Marathonbet	1.77	3.28	4.05	11.7%
SBO	1.79	3.04	3.57	16.8%
Best of all books	1.89	3.50	4.30	4.7%
Average	1.81	3.32	4.07	9.8%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Cerro LargoProgreso

Last 10#12Table position#151.06Points per game1.004Form pts · last 571.0Goals for · last 51.21.4Goals against · last 51.245Attack rating5546Defence rating5436Form rating64100H2H rating061Goals model3953Overall rating47

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 12 Nov 00:01 UTC

Cerro Largo

2W 2D 6L · goals 6:12 · per match 0.6 for, 1.2 against

31 Oct	A	Racing Montevideo	1-3	L
25 Oct	H	Boston River	2-0	W
21 Oct	A	Liverpool Montevideo	0-1	L
16 Oct	A	Cerro	1-1	D
11 Oct	H	Albion FC	0-1	L
4 Oct	A	Danubio	1-2	L
30 Sep	H	Rentistas	1-0	W
26 Sep	H	Club Nacional	0-2	L
19 Sep	A	Deportivo Maldonado	0-2	L
12 Sep	H	Central Espanol	0-0	D

Progreso

5W 1D 4L · goals 12:12 · per match 1.2 for, 1.2 against

1 Nov	H	Defensor Sporting	0-2	L
25 Oct	A	Wanderers	1-0	W
17 Oct	H	Juventud	2-0	W
10 Oct	A	Penarol	1-1	D
3 Oct	A	Liverpool Montevideo	2-3	L
26 Sep	H	Racing Montevideo	2-1	W
19 Sep	A	Boston River	2-1	W
16 Sep	H	Club Nacional	0-1	L
13 Sep	H	Cerro	1-3	L
7 Sep	A	Albion FC	1-0	W

Head to head

12Cerro Largo wins

5draws

3Progreso wins

20 meetings · goals 22:12 · last 10: 8W 1D 1L for Cerro Largo

3 May 2026Primera División	Primera División	Progreso0-1Cerro Largo
9 Aug 2025Primera División - Clausura	Primera División - Clausura	Progreso1-2Cerro Largo
7 Feb 2025Primera División - Apertura	Primera División - Apertura	Cerro Largo4-1Progreso
30 Nov 2024Primera División - Clausura	Primera División - Clausura	Cerro Largo2-1Progreso
4 Jun 2024Primera División - Apertura	Primera División - Apertura	Progreso0-1Cerro Largo
17 Oct 2021Primera División - Clausura	Primera División - Clausura	Cerro Largo1-0Progreso
19 Jun 2021Primera División - Apertura	Primera División - Apertura	Progreso0-0Cerro Largo
14 Mar 2021Primera División - Clausura	Primera División - Clausura	Progreso1-0Cerro Largo
12 Sep 2020Primera División - Apertura	Primera División - Apertura	Progreso1-2Cerro Largo
21 Nov 2019Primera División - Clausura	Primera División - Clausura	Progreso0-1Cerro Largo

Primera División tablePrimera: Tabla Anualupdated 12 Nov 00:20 UTC

In the Primera División table, Cerro Largo sit 12th with 37 points from 35 games, while Progreso are 15th with 35 points from 35.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Penarol	35	19	9	7	52:28	+24	65
2	Deportivo Maldonado	35	18	9	8	54:32	+22	63
3	Atletico Torque	35	19	6	10	59:41	+18	63
4	Club Nacional	35	19	4	12	53:42	+11	61
5	Racing Montevideo	35	16	12	7	45:31	+14	60
6	Liverpool Montevideo	35	16	11	8	47:31	+16	59
7	Wanderers	35	14	9	12	42:44	-2	51
8	Albion FC	35	13	8	14	47:44	+3	47
9	Juventud	35	10	11	14	37:43	-6	41
10	Central Espanol	35	11	8	16	35:48	-13	41
11	Defensor Sporting	35	9	12	14	35:43	-8	39
12	Cerro Largo	35	9	10	16	33:41	-8	37
13	Boston River	35	10	7	18	34:47	-13	37
14	Cerro	35	10	7	18	29:53	-24	37
15	Progreso	35	10	5	20	31:49	-18	35
16	Danubio	35	6	14	15	29:45	-16	32

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg150%1.82X27%3.32222%4.07

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 4.7% margin.

1X2 since open average price

12.02 → 1.82 -9.9%X3.31 → 3.32 +0.3%23.38 → 4.07 +20.4%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Betano	2.22	1.65	5.7%
Betfair	2.20	1.65	6.1%
Bet365	2.15	1.67	6.4%
SBO	1.98	1.78	6.7%
Pinnacle	2.14	1.61	8.8%
BetVictor	2.10	1.63	9.0%
1xBet	2.13	1.61	9.1%
Marathonbet	2.13	1.61	9.1%
Best of all books	2.22	1.78	1.2%
Average	2.13	1.65	7.5%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	2.00	1.80	5.6%
Bet365	2.00	1.73	7.8%
Betano	2.02	1.70	8.3%
William Hill	1.95	1.75	8.4%
1xBet	1.95	1.74	8.8%
BetVictor	1.95	1.73	9.1%
Marathonbet	1.95	1.72	9.4%
Best of all books	2.02	1.80	5.1%
Average	1.97	1.74	8.2%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Cerro Largo 45%Draw 45%Progreso 10%

The statistical model rates Cerro Largo at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Progreso at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.82 | 3.32 | 4.07, which imply roughly 54.9% for a Cerro Largo win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Primera División table: Cerro Largo are 12th (37 pts, 33-41 goals), Progreso 15th (35 pts, 31-49).

Over their last five matches, Cerro Largo averaged 1 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game; Progreso averaged 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Cerro Largo or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.82	3.32	4.07

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.19	1.87	1.27

Draw no bet

1	2
1.35	3.08

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.97	1.74

1st half

1	X	2
2.43	2.06	4.66

2nd half

1	X	2
2.25	2.31	4.32

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	2.80	14.9	44.1
HT X	4.63	4.99	8.81
HT 2	25.7	15.2	6.90

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.61	9.00	2.59

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.05	8.20
1.5	1.36	2.86
2.5	2.13	1.65
3.5	3.97	1.21
4.5	7.81	1.06
5.5	16.9	1.02
6.5	31.5	1.01

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.03	7.70
1	1.04	6.85
1.25	1.19	3.83
1.75	1.45	2.46
2	1.61	2.13
2.25	1.86	1.81
2.75	2.47	1.45
3	2.89	1.35
3.25	3.51	1.23
3.75	5.05	1.10
4	7.40	1.03
4.25	7.80	1.02
4.75	8.40	1.01

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.25	2.96	1.33
-1	2.58	1.43
-0.75	2.05	1.67
-0.5	1.80	1.95
-0.25	1.55	2.24
0	1.32	3.04

11 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	7.47	1.05
-2.25	7.00	1.06
-2	6.47	1.07
-1.75	4.26	1.17
-1.5	3.42	1.25
+0.25	1.25	3.48
+0.5	1.20	4.03
+0.75	1.13	5.13
+1	1.10	8.53
+1.25	1.01	8.65
+1.5	1.04	9.57

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
5.5	1.02	6.89
6.5	1.16	4.03
7.5	1.37	2.69
8.5	1.75	1.97
9.5	2.16	1.61
10.5	2.85	1.33
11.5	4.10	1.15
12.5	6.28	1.04

21 more lines

Line	Over	Under
5.75	1.03	6.59
6	1.04	6.29
6.25	1.10	4.82
6.75	1.18	3.78
7	1.21	3.58
7.25	1.30	3.03
7.75	1.43	2.53
8	1.50	2.42
8.25	1.61	2.17
8.75	1.80	1.90
9	1.93	1.81
9.25	2.04	1.69
9.75	2.33	1.52
10	2.57	1.44
10.25	2.72	1.37
10.75	3.22	1.26
11	3.73	1.19
11.25	3.92	1.17
11.75	4.77	1.10
12	5.84	1.05
12.25	6.06	1.04

Next Primera División matches

13 Nov	Atletico Torque – Racing Montevideo
14 Nov	Central Espanol – Boston River
14 Nov	Deportivo Maldonado – Cerro
15 Nov	Danubio – Liverpool Montevideo
15 Nov	Defensor Sporting – Penarol

All Primera División fixtures and the table

Latest Primera División results

2 Nov	Albion FC 0-0 Deportivo Maldonado
1 Nov	Liverpool Montevideo 2-0 Juventud
1 Nov	Danubio 1-2 Club Nacional
1 Nov	Boston River 1-2 Atletico Torque
1 Nov	Progreso 0-2 Defensor Sporting
31 Oct	Penarol 1-1 Wanderers