Penybont vs Cardiff Draconians• Welsh Cup, Wales

3.0:2.06-0FTToday · Bryntirion Park, Bridgend3.0:1.0

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.10WHX10.0BFR223.0WHMargin at best5.3%Books8Markets67Rating44 · 56Exp. goals L54.5

Price board · 1X2captured 13 Nov 13:37 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	1.09	9.80	20.0	6.9%
William Hill	1.10	8.00	23.0	7.8%
Bet365	1.09	8.50	21.0	8.3%
BetVictor	1.07	9.00	20.0	9.6%
Betfair	1.06	10.0	18.0	9.9%
Betano	1.10	7.40	14.5	11.3%
1xBet	1.06	8.30	17.0	12.3%
Marathonbet	1.06	8.30	17.0	12.3%
Best of all books	1.10	10.0	23.0	5.3%
Average	1.08	8.66	18.8	9.6%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

PenybontCardiff Draconians

Last 1012Form pts · last 563.0Goals for · last 53.02.0Goals against · last 51.050Attack rating5033Defence rating6750Form rating500H2H rating00Goals model044Overall rating56

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 12 Nov 18:00 UTC

Penybont

9W 0D 1L · goals 25:8 · per match 2.5 for, 0.8 against

6 Nov	H	Caernarfon Town	2-0	W
31 Oct	A	Cardiff MET	5-0	W
18 Oct	A	Afan Lido	3-2	W
9 Oct	H	Barry Town	3-1	W
3 Oct	A	GAP Connah S Quay FC	0-1	L
26 Sep	H	Airbus UK	2-1	W
18 Sep	A	Ammanford AFC	5-1	W
15 Sep	H	Briton Ferry	3-2	W
11 Sep	A	Trefelin	1-0	W
5 Sep	H	Colwyn Bay	1-0	W

Cardiff Draconians

4W 2D 4L · goals 16:21 · per match 1.6 for, 2.1 against

13 Nov	A	Penybont	0-6	L
7 Nov	A	Swansea University	0-2	L
31 Oct	H	Afan Lido	2-0	W
23 Oct	A	Trethomas Bluebirds	1-3	L
17 Oct	A	Radnor Valley	3-1	W
10 Oct	H	Carmarthen Town	2-2	D
3 Oct	H	Newport City	1-1	D
26 Sep	H	Caerau (Ely)	1-3	L
12 Sep	H	Baglan Dragons	2-1	W
22 Aug	H	llanelli AFC	4-2	W

Head to head

No previous meetings between Penybont and Cardiff Draconians on record.

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg186%1.07X10%9.0524%21.0

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 5.3% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.06 → 1.08 +1.9%X9.46 → 8.66 -8.5%217.4 → 18.8 +7.8%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.25	3.75	6.7%
BetVictor	1.18	4.20	8.6%
1xBet	1.18	4.10	9.1%
Best of all books	1.25	4.20	3.8%
Average	1.20	4.02	8.0%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Bet365	2.10	1.67	7.5%
William Hill	2.00	1.73	7.8%
Betfair	1.80	1.91	7.9%
BetVictor	2.00	1.70	8.8%
1xBet	1.85	1.82	9.0%
Marathonbet	1.85	1.79	9.9%
Best of all books	2.10	1.91	-0.0%
Average	1.93	1.77	8.2%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Penybont 10%Draw 45%Cardiff Draconians 45%

The statistical model rated Penybont at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Cardiff Draconians at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.07 | 9.05 | 21.00, which imply roughly 11% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Over their last five matches, Penybont averaged 3 goals scored and 2 conceded per game; Cardiff Draconians averaged 3 scored and 1 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Cardiff Draconians and +1.5 goals (goal line signal: over 1.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.08	8.66	18.8

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.02	5.88	1.05

Draw no bet

1	2
1.03	9.67

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.93	1.77

1st half

1	X	2
1.35	3.43	12.0

2nd half

1	X	2
1.24	4.44	11.7

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	1.37	31.7	95.3
HT X	4.38	15.0	41.0
HT 2	17.7	33.7	34.0

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.16	31.0	4.67

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.01	29.0
1.5	1.06	8.50
2.5	1.20	4.02
3.5	1.54	2.23
4.5	2.21	1.57
5.5	3.53	1.24
6.5	6.28	1.09
7.5	9.00	1.04
8.5	13.0	1.01
9.5	21.0	–

10 more lines

Line	Over	Under
2.75	1.22	3.80
3	1.26	3.20
3.25	1.39	2.58
3.75	1.65	2.04
4	1.81	1.84
4.25	2.01	1.68
4.75	2.46	1.44
5	2.81	1.33
5.25	3.05	1.28
6	4.90	1.11

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-3.5	2.47	1.45
-3.25	2.27	1.53
-3	2.05	1.66
-2.75	1.83	1.86
-2.5	1.69	2.01
-2.25	1.53	2.28

13 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-4.75	5.00	1.17
-4.5	4.15	1.20
-4.25	3.85	1.23
-4	3.46	1.24
-3.75	2.84	1.35
-2	1.39	2.69
-1.75	1.34	2.91
-1.5	1.29	3.18
-1.25	1.22	4.15
-1	1.11	5.35
-0.75	1.12	6.00
-0.5	1.10	6.50
0	1.02	10.0

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
9.5	1.74	2.01
10	1.95	1.85

Next Welsh Cup matches

14 Nov	Caerau (Ely) – Brickfield Rangers
14 Nov	Colwyn Bay – Aberystwyth Town
14 Nov	Haverfordwest County AFC – Ammanford AFC
14 Nov	Newtown AFC – Caerphilly Athletic

All Welsh Cup fixtures and the table

Latest Welsh Cup results

13 Nov	Baglan Dragons 1-1 Barry Town
13 Nov	Caernarfon Town 4-0 Holywell
13 Nov	The New Saints 5-0 Briton Ferry
16 Oct	Cambrian & Clydach 5-0 Trethomas Bluebirds
16 Oct	Caerau (Ely) 6-0 llanelli AFC
16 Oct	Denbigh Town 0-2 Bangor City 1876 FC