Newtown AFC vs 
Caerphilly Athletic• Welsh Cup, Wales
Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction
Price board · 1X2captured 13 Nov 16:16 UTC
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dafabet | 1.46 | 4.80 | 5.60 | 7.2% |
| 1xBet | 1.43 | 4.45 | 5.43 | 10.8% |
| Bet365 | 1.44 | 4.50 | 5.00 | 11.7% |
| Marathonbet | 1.42 | 4.45 | 5.20 | 12.1% |
| Betfair | 1.36 | 4.75 | 5.50 | 12.8% |
| Best of all books | 1.46 | 4.80 | 5.60 | 7.2% |
| Average | 1.42 | 4.59 | 5.35 | 10.8% |
Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.
Team comparison
Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.
Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 13 Nov 18:31 UTC
Newtown AFC
7W 2D 1L · goals 18:4 · per match 1.8 for, 0.4 against
| 6 Nov | A | Ruthin Town | 2-0 | W |
| 31 Oct | H | Buckley Town | 2-0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Rhyl | 2-2 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | Llanuwchllyn | 7-0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Bangor City 1876 FC | 0-0 | D |
| 3 Oct | A | Mold Alexandra | 2-1 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Porthmadog | 0-1 | L |
| 12 Sep | A | Holyhead Hotspur | 1-0 | W |
| 5 Sep | H | Denbigh Town | 1-0 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | Bala Town | 1-0 | W |
Caerphilly Athletic
4W 1D 5L · goals 16:17 · per match 1.6 for, 1.7 against
| 6 Nov | A | Afan Lido | 2-3 | L |
| 30 Oct | H | Caerau (Ely) | 0-1 | L |
| 23 Oct | A | Carmarthen Town | 3-1 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Chepstow Town | 1-0 | W |
| 9 Oct | H | Newport City | 3-2 | W |
| 3 Oct | A | Swansea University | 1-3 | L |
| 25 Sep | H | Pontypridd Town | 1-2 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Aberystwyth Town | 2-3 | L |
| 4 Sep | A | Trethomas Bluebirds | 2-2 | D |
| 31 Aug | A | Baglan Dragons | 1-0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings between Newtown AFC and Caerphilly Athletic on record.
Market · 1X2
Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 7.2% margin.
Over / Under 2.5
| Bookmaker | Over | Under | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.44 | 2.62 | 7.6% |
| 1xBet | 1.36 | 2.70 | 10.6% |
| Marathonbet | 1.36 | 2.70 | 10.6% |
| Best of all books | 1.44 | 2.70 | 6.5% |
| Average | 1.39 | 2.67 | 9.5% |
Both teams to score
| Bookmaker | Yes | No | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.57 | 2.25 | 8.1% |
| 1xBet | 1.49 | 2.39 | 9.0% |
| Marathonbet | 1.49 | 2.34 | 9.8% |
| Best of all books | 1.57 | 2.39 | 5.5% |
| Average | 1.52 | 2.33 | 8.9% |
Odds Analysis & Prediction
The statistical model rates Newtown AFC at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Caerphilly Athletic at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.42 | 4.59 | 5.35, which imply roughly 70.4% for a Newtown AFC win versus the model's 45%.
Over their last five matches, Newtown AFC averaged 7 goals scored and 0 conceded per game; Caerphilly Athletic averaged 1 scored and 0 conceded.
Statistical advice: Combo Winner : Newtown AFC and +4.5 goals (goal line signal: over 4.5 goals).
Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.
All markets average prices
Full time
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.42 | 4.59 | 5.35 |
Double chance
| 1X | X2 | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.09 | 2.50 | 1.12 |
Draw no bet
| 1 | 2 |
|---|---|
| 1.20 | 4.33 |
Both teams to score
| Yes | No |
|---|---|
| 1.52 | 2.33 |
1st half
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.86 | 2.61 | 5.07 |
2nd half
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.71 | 3.06 | 4.88 |
HT/FT
| HT / FT | FT 1 | FT X | FT 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| HT 1 | 2.10 | 18.0 | 36.0 |
| HT X | 4.90 | 7.80 | 13.5 |
| HT 2 | 14.5 | 18.0 | 8.80 |
First team to score
| Home | No Goal | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.38 | 23.0 | 2.82 |
Match goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 1.01 | 22.0 |
| 1.5 | 1.11 | 5.75 |
| 2.5 | 1.39 | 2.67 |
| 3.5 | 1.99 | 1.72 |
| 4.5 | 3.23 | 1.28 |
| 5.5 | 5.38 | 1.12 |
| 6.5 | 9.00 | 1.04 |
| 7.5 | 13.0 | 1.01 |
| 8.5 | 21.0 | – |
10 more lines
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1.11 | 4.85 |
| 2.25 | 1.24 | 3.34 |
| 2.75 | 1.44 | 2.44 |
| 3 | 1.55 | 2.17 |
| 3.25 | 1.78 | 1.88 |
| 3.75 | 2.20 | 1.55 |
| 4 | 2.59 | 1.39 |
| 4.25 | 2.88 | 1.32 |
| 4.75 | 3.80 | 1.22 |
| 5 | 4.95 | 1.11 |
Asian handicap
| Line | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| -1.75 | 2.46 | 1.43 |
| -1.5 | 2.14 | 1.57 |
| -1.25 | 1.91 | 1.72 |
| -1 | 1.70 | 1.98 |
| -0.75 | 1.53 | 2.21 |
| -0.25 | 1.29 | 3.04 |
9 more lines
| Line | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 7.00 | 1.04 |
| -3 | 6.25 | 1.06 |
| -2.75 | 4.00 | 1.20 |
| -2.5 | 3.68 | 1.20 |
| -2.25 | 3.30 | 1.28 |
| -2 | 3.05 | 1.28 |
| 0 | 1.16 | 4.20 |
| +0.25 | 1.13 | 4.60 |
| +1.5 | 1.01 | 9.70 |
Next Welsh Cup matches
| 14 Nov | Caerau (Ely) – Brickfield Rangers |
| 14 Nov | Colwyn Bay – Aberystwyth Town |
| 14 Nov | Haverfordwest County AFC – Ammanford AFC |