Santa Lucía vs Zurrieq• Challenge League, Malta

#110.5:0.51-1FT11/100.5:1.5#12

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.86DAFX3.75B36523.981XBMargin at best5.6%Books6Markets37Rating51 · 49 levelExp. goals L51.5

Price board · 1X2captured 11 Oct 10:47 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	1.86	3.70	3.65	8.2%
Betfair	1.75	3.75	3.75	10.5%
1xBet	1.72	3.62	3.98	10.9%
Betano	1.85	3.50	3.50	11.2%
Marathonbet	1.70	3.62	3.88	12.2%
Bet365	1.70	3.75	3.70	12.5%
Best of all books	1.86	3.75	3.98	5.6%
Average	1.76	3.66	3.74	10.8%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Santa LucíaZurrieq

Last 10#11Table position#121.00Points per game1.009Form pts · last 540.5Goals for · last 50.50.5Goals against · last 51.550Attack rating5075Defence rating25100Form rating040H2H rating600Goals model051Overall rating49

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 03:21 UTC

Santa Lucía

3W 6D 1L · goals 15:8 · per match 1.5 for, 0.8 against

11 Oct	H	Zurrieq	1-1	D
18 Sep	A	St. Andrews	1-1	D
12 Sep	H	Vittoriosa Stars	0-0	D
19 Apr	A	Mtarfa	5-1	W
12 Apr	H	Zurrieq	3-0	W
6 Apr	A	Mgarr United	1-1	D
14 Mar	H	Marsa	0-1	L
8 Mar	A	Vittoriosa Stars	1-1	D
28 Feb	H	Gudja United	2-1	W
21 Feb	H	Zebbug Rangers	1-1	D

Zurrieq

3W 2D 5L · goals 15:17 · per match 1.5 for, 1.7 against

11 Oct	A	Santa Lucía	1-1	D
19 Sep	H	Victoria Hotspurs	1-2	L
12 Sep	A	Sirens	0-1	L
18 Apr	H	Mgarr United	4-2	W
12 Apr	A	Santa Lucía	0-3	L
1 Apr	H	Marsa	2-1	W
15 Mar	H	Zebbug Rangers	3-3	D
7 Mar	A	Mtarfa	2-0	W
4 Mar	H	Naxxar Lions	1-2	L
28 Feb	A	Vittoriosa Stars	1-2	L

Head to head

2Santa Lucía wins

0draws

3Zurrieq wins

5 meetings · goals 8:12 · last 5: 2W 0D 3L for Santa Lucía

12 Apr 2026Challenge League	Challenge League	Santa Lucía3-0Zurrieq
9 Dec 2025Challenge League	Challenge League	Zurrieq4-0Santa Lucía
19 Apr 2025Challenge Cup	Challenge Cup	Zurrieq2-0Santa Lucía
15 Feb 2025Challenge League	Challenge League	Santa Lucía3-6Zurrieq
4 Jan 2025Challenge League	Challenge League	Santa Lucía2-0Zurrieq

Challenge League tableFirst Divisionupdated 17 Oct 21:11 UTC

In the Challenge League table, Santa Lucía sit 11th with 4 points from 4 games, while Zurrieq are 12th with 4 points from 4.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Tarxien Rainbows	3	3	0	0	9:3	+6	9
2	Mgarr United	4	3	0	1	7:4	+3	9
3	Fgura United	4	2	2	0	8:1	+7	8
4	Naxxar Lions	3	2	0	1	8:6	+2	6
5	Victoria Hotspurs	3	2	0	1	5:4	+1	6
6	Pietà Hotspurs	4	2	0	2	8:8	0	6
7	Swieqi United	3	1	1	1	6:6	0	4
8	Melita	4	1	1	2	4:4	0	4
9	Sirens	3	1	1	1	4:4	0	4
10	Vittoriosa Stars	3	1	1	1	2:2	0	4
11	Santa Lucía	4	0	4	0	2:2	0	4
12	Zurrieq	4	1	1	2	3:4	-1	4
13	St. Andrews	4	1	1	2	2:6	-4	4
14	Zebbug Rangers	3	1	0	2	2:7	-5	3
15	Attard	3	0	2	1	4:6	-2	2
16	Gudja United	4	0	0	4	0:7	-7	0

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg151%1.76X25%3.56224%3.81

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 5.6% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.93 → 1.77 -8.3%X3.58 → 3.59 +0.3%23.23 → 3.74 +15.8%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.70	2.10	6.4%
1xBet	1.60	2.15	9.0%
Marathonbet	1.60	2.15	9.0%
Pinnacle	1.57	2.19	9.4%
Betano	1.65	2.02	10.1%
Best of all books	1.70	2.19	4.5%
Average	1.62	2.12	8.7%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
1xBet	1.56	2.22	9.1%
Marathonbet	1.56	2.18	10.0%
Best of all books	1.56	2.22	9.1%
Average	1.56	2.20	9.6%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Santa Lucía 35%Draw 35%Zurrieq 30%

The statistical model rated Santa Lucía at 35% to win, the draw at 35% and Zurrieq at 30% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.76 | 3.56 | 3.81, which imply roughly 56.8% for a Santa Lucía win versus the model's 35%.

Form context from the Challenge League table: Santa Lucía are 11th (4 pts, 2-2 goals), Zurrieq 12th (4 pts, 3-4).

Over their last five matches, Santa Lucía averaged 0.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game; Zurrieq averaged 0.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : Santa Lucía or draw and -3.5 goals (goal line signal: under 3.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.76	3.66	3.74

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.20	1.88	1.21

Draw no bet

1	2
1.38	2.79

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.56	2.20

1st half

1	X	2
2.30	2.26	4.16

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.56	14.1	2.42

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.03	13.0
1.5	1.15	4.30
2.5	1.62	2.12
3.5	2.46	1.44
4.5	4.55	1.13
5.5	9.00	1.06

8 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1.75	1.18	3.85
2	1.24	3.34
2.25	1.41	2.56
2.75	1.73	1.94
3	1.96	1.71
3.25	2.20	1.55
3.75	2.88	1.32
4	3.82	1.18

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	2.86	1.33
-1.25	2.57	1.40
-1	2.25	1.53
-0.75	1.92	1.77
-0.5	1.77	1.93
-0.25	1.51	2.30

7 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	5.90	1.07
-2	5.05	1.10
0	1.31	3.00
+0.25	1.25	3.28
+0.75	1.10	5.05
+1	1.02	7.90
+1.5	1.01	9.00

Next Challenge League matches

18 Oct	Vittoriosa Stars – Attard
18 Oct	Tarxien Rainbows – Zebbug Rangers
18 Oct	Swieqi United – Sirens

All Challenge League fixtures and the table

Latest Challenge League results

17 Oct	Fgura United 0-0 Santa Lucía
17 Oct	Zurrieq 1-0 Gudja United
17 Oct	Melita 0-2 Pietà Hotspurs
17 Oct	St. Andrews 0-2 Mgarr United
11 Oct	Gudja United 0-1 St. Andrews
11 Oct	Attard 0-0 Melita