Tusker vs Mara Sugar• FKF Premier League, Kenya

#161.5:1.012:00Today1.0:0.8#7

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.44DAFX2.85DAF23.10B365Margin at best8.3%Books7Markets34Rating53 · 47 levelExp. goals L52.1

Price board · 1X2captured 2 Nov 06:00 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	2.44	2.85	3.10	8.3%
Betano	2.40	2.75	3.05	10.8%
1xBet	2.37	2.76	3.08	10.9%
Bet365	2.35	2.70	3.10	11.8%
Marathonbet	2.35	2.76	2.99	12.2%
Betfair	2.30	2.80	3.00	12.5%
BetVictor	2.20	2.60	2.75	20.3%
Best of all books	2.44	2.85	3.10	8.3%
Average	2.34	2.75	3.01	12.3%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

TuskerMara Sugar

Last 10#16Table position#71.50Points per game1.507Form pts · last 561.5Goals for · last 51.01.0Goals against · last 50.843Attack rating5760Defence rating4033Form rating6771H2H rating290Goals model053Overall rating47

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 1 Nov 09:01 UTC

Tusker

4W 2D 4L · goals 11:10 · per match 1.1 for, 1.0 against

29 Oct	A	Mathare United	1-2	L
25 Oct	A	Singida Black Stars	1-1	D
18 Oct	H	Singida Black Stars	0-1	L
11 Oct	A	Ulinzi Stars	2-0	W
12 Sep	H	Al Ahli Wad Medani	1-0	W
6 Sep	A	Al Ahli Wad Medani	2-2	D
1 Aug	H	KVZ	2-0	W
29 Jul	H	Rayon Sports	0-1	L
26 Jul	A	Al Hilal Omdurman	0-2	L
14 Jun	H	Kenya Police	2-1	W

Mara Sugar

3W 4D 3L · goals 8:8 · per match 0.8 for, 0.8 against

28 Oct	H	AFC Leopards	0-0	D
24 Oct	A	Ulinzi Stars	0-0	D
19 Oct	H	Mombasa Elite	2-1	W
11 Oct	A	3K	2-2	D
31 May	A	Murang'a SEAL	1-2	L
27 May	H	GOR Mahia	0-0	D
16 May	H	Mathare United	0-1	L
13 May	H	Shabana	1-0	W
9 May	A	AFC Leopards	1-2	L
24 Apr	A	Tusker	1-0	W

Head to head

3Tusker wins

1draws

1Mara Sugar wins

5 meetings · goals 6:4 · last 5: 3W 1D 1L for Tusker

24 Apr 2026FKF Premier League	FKF Premier League	Tusker0-1Mara Sugar
29 Nov 2025FKF Premier League	FKF Premier League	Mara Sugar0-1Tusker
6 Apr 2025FKF Premier League	FKF Premier League	Mara Sugar1-1Tusker
27 Nov 2024FKF Premier League	FKF Premier League	Tusker2-1Mara Sugar
18 Sep 2022Friendlies Clubs	Friendlies Clubs	Mara Sugar1-2Tusker

FKF Premier League tablePremier Leagueupdated 1 Nov 17:10 UTC

In the FKF Premier League table, Tusker sit 16th with 3 points from 2 games, while Mara Sugar are 7th with 6 points from 4.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	GOR Mahia	4	4	0	0	7:2	+5	12
2	AFC Leopards	5	2	3	0	4:1	+3	9
3	Murang'a SEAL	5	2	1	2	11:9	+2	7
4	KCB	4	2	1	1	6:4	+2	7
5	Migori Youth	4	1	3	0	4:2	+2	6
6	APS Bomet	5	1	3	1	4:2	+2	6
7	Mara Sugar	4	1	3	0	4:3	+1	6
8	Shabana	4	1	3	0	2:1	+1	6
9	Kenya Police	4	1	2	1	3:3	0	5
10	Mathare United	4	1	2	1	2:2	0	5
11	3K	4	1	2	1	5:7	-2	5
12	Nairobi United	5	0	4	1	6:7	-1	4
13	Bandari	5	0	4	1	2:3	-1	4
14	Homeboyz	4	1	1	2	2:4	-2	4
15	Posta Rangers FC	4	1	1	2	2:6	-4	4
16	Tusker	2	1	0	1	3:2	+1	3
17	Ulinzi Stars	4	0	2	2	1:4	-3	2
18	Mombasa Elite	5	0	1	4	2:8	-6	1

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg138%2.37X32%2.77230%3.05

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 8.3% margin.

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	2.75	1.40	7.8%
Betfair	2.60	1.44	7.9%
1xBet	2.70	1.36	10.6%
Marathonbet	2.70	1.36	10.6%
BetVictor	2.30	1.30	20.4%
Best of all books	2.75	1.44	5.8%
Average	2.61	1.37	11.2%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	2.20	1.60	8.0%
1xBet	2.18	1.58	9.2%
Marathonbet	2.18	1.56	10.0%
BetVictor	1.95	1.45	20.2%
Best of all books	2.20	1.60	8.0%
Average	2.13	1.55	11.6%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Tusker 45%Draw 45%Mara Sugar 10%

The statistical model rates Tusker at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Mara Sugar at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.37 | 2.77 | 3.05, which imply roughly 42.2% for a Tusker win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the FKF Premier League table: Tusker are 16th (3 pts, 3-2 goals), Mara Sugar 7th (6 pts, 4-3).

Over their last five matches, Tusker averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1 conceded per game; Mara Sugar averaged 1 scored and 0.8 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Tusker or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.34	2.75	3.01

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.30	1.48	1.31

Draw no bet

1	2
1.58	2.05

Both teams to score

Yes	No
2.13	1.55

1st half

1	X	2
3.16	1.80	3.89

2nd half

1	X	2
2.84	2.06	3.54

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	4.03	13.8	39.5
HT X	5.38	3.95	6.43
HT 2	31.5	15.0	5.08

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.97	5.48	2.34

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.07	5.70
1.5	1.52	2.20
2.5	2.61	1.37
3.5	5.14	1.09
4.5	9.27	1.02

8 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.09	5.25
1	1.13	4.55
1.25	1.33	2.65
1.75	1.67	1.88
2	1.95	1.63
2.25	2.25	1.45
2.75	3.34	1.24
3	4.70	1.12

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.75	2.77	1.30
-0.5	2.06	1.40
-0.25	1.95	1.67
0	1.59	2.01
+0.25	1.39	2.42
+0.75	1.18	3.92

5 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	5.50	1.08
-1.25	4.95	1.11
-1	4.33	1.14
+1	1.05	6.45
+1.5	1.02	7.80

Next FKF Premier League matches

2 Nov	Ulinzi Stars – Mathare United
2 Nov	Posta Rangers FC – 3K
2 Nov	Shabana – Kenya Police

All FKF Premier League fixtures and the table

Latest FKF Premier League results

1 Nov	GOR Mahia 1-2 KCB
1 Nov	Nairobi United 1-1 Bandari
1 Nov	APS Bomet 0-0 Murang'a SEAL
1 Nov	AFC Leopards 2-0 Homeboyz
1 Nov	Migori Youth 2-0 Mombasa Elite
29 Oct	Kenya Police 1-0 Ulinzi Stars