Caerau (Ely) vs Pontypridd Town• FAW Championship, Wales

1.4:0.619:45Today2.8:1.8

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.87DAFX4.10B36523.60BFRMargin at best5.6%Books8Markets40Rating49 · 51 levelExp. goals L53.3

Price board · 1X2captured 6 Nov 12:00 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	1.88	3.90	3.40	8.2%
Pinnacle	1.83	3.83	3.41	10.1%
Betfair	1.75	3.90	3.60	10.6%
1xBet	1.82	3.76	3.40	11.0%
Betano	1.85	3.85	3.20	11.3%
Bet365	1.83	4.10	3.10	11.3%
Marathonbet	1.80	3.76	3.32	12.3%
William Hill	1.85	3.50	3.30	12.9%
Best of all books	1.88	4.10	3.60	5.4%
Average	1.83	3.83	3.34	10.8%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Caerau (Ely)Pontypridd Town

Last 1012Form pts · last 581.4Goals for · last 52.80.6Goals against · last 51.833Attack rating6775Defence rating2560Form rating4038H2H rating6240Goals model6049Overall rating51

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 4 Nov 18:01 UTC

Caerau (Ely)

7W 0D 3L · goals 21:13 · per match 2.1 for, 1.3 against

30 Oct	A	Caerphilly Athletic	1-0	W
23 Oct	H	Llantwit Major	0-2	L
16 Oct	H	llanelli AFC	6-0	W
10 Oct	A	Aberystwyth Town	1-0	W
2 Oct	H	Afan Lido	2-0	W
26 Sep	A	Cardiff Draconians	3-1	W
11 Sep	H	llanelli AFC	3-0	W
31 Aug	H	Treowen Stars	3-2	W
28 Aug	A	Baglan Dragons	1-3	L
21 Aug	H	Swansea University	1-5	L

Pontypridd Town

5W 3D 2L · goals 26:17 · per match 2.6 for, 1.7 against

30 Oct	H	llanelli AFC	4-0	W
23 Oct	A	Newport City	4-4	D
10 Oct	A	Baglan Dragons	1-1	D
6 Oct	H	Llantwit Major	4-1	W
3 Oct	H	Aberystwyth Town	1-3	L
25 Sep	A	Caerphilly Athletic	2-1	W
11 Sep	H	Afan Lido	0-1	L
28 Aug	A	Swansea University	4-4	D
21 Aug	H	Trethomas Bluebirds	2-1	W
15 Aug	A	Cardiff Draconians	4-1	W

Head to head

1Caerau (Ely) wins

2draws

3Pontypridd Town wins

6 meetings · goals 7:9 · last 6: 1W 2D 3L for Caerau (Ely)

18 Apr 2026FAW Championship	FAW Championship	Pontypridd Town0-0Caerau (Ely)
25 Aug 2025FAW Championship	FAW Championship	Caerau (Ely)2-0Pontypridd Town
4 Feb 2025FAW Championship	FAW Championship	Caerau (Ely)0-1Pontypridd Town
23 Aug 2024FAW Championship	FAW Championship	Pontypridd Town1-0Caerau (Ely)
25 Jan 2020FAW Championship	FAW Championship	Pontypridd Town4-4Caerau (Ely)
19 Oct 2019Welsh Cup	Welsh Cup	Pontypridd Town3-1Caerau (Ely)

FAW Championship tableNorthupdated 5 Nov 18:01 UTC

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Brickfield Rangers	13	10	1	2	28:11	+17	31
2	Newtown AFC	12	8	3	1	22:5	+17	27
3	Mold Alexandra	12	7	3	2	30:15	+15	24
4	Porthmadog	13	7	3	3	20:14	+6	24
5	Bala Town	13	6	3	4	26:24	+2	21
6	Caersws	12	5	5	2	25:18	+7	20
7	Bangor City 1876 FC	12	5	4	3	25:19	+6	19
8	Guilsfield	13	4	6	3	20:18	+2	18
9	Buckley Town	13	4	3	6	25:23	+2	15
10	Llanuwchllyn	13	4	3	6	23:31	-8	15
11	Holyhead Hotspur	12	4	2	6	17:20	-3	14
12	Denbigh Town	12	4	1	7	24:26	-2	13
13	Rhyl	13	2	6	5	21:24	-3	12
14	Ruthin Town	12	3	3	6	12:22	-10	12
15	Gresford Athletic	11	2	1	8	7:24	-17	7
16	Penrhyncoch	12	0	1	11	6:37	-31	1

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg149%1.83X24%3.82227%3.34

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 5.6% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.93 → 1.83 -5.2%X3.87 → 3.82 -1.3%22.99 → 3.34 +11.7%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.50	2.50	6.7%
Pinnacle	1.47	2.48	8.3%
1xBet	1.46	2.38	10.5%
Marathonbet	1.46	2.38	10.5%
Best of all books	1.50	2.50	6.7%
Average	1.47	2.44	9.0%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
1xBet	1.45	2.50	9.0%
Marathonbet	1.45	2.44	9.9%
William Hill	1.44	2.45	10.3%
Best of all books	1.45	2.50	9.0%
Average	1.45	2.46	9.7%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Caerau (Ely) 10%Draw 45%Pontypridd Town 45%

The statistical model rates Caerau (Ely) at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Pontypridd Town at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.83 | 3.82 | 3.34, which imply roughly 26.2% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Over their last five matches, Caerau (Ely) averaged 1.4 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game; Pontypridd Town averaged 2.8 scored and 1.8 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Pontypridd Town and +1.5 goals (goal line signal: over 1.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.83	3.83	3.34

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.26	1.80	1.20

Draw no bet

1	2
1.48	2.46

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.45	2.46

1st half

1	X	2
2.29	2.41	3.68

2nd half

1	X	2
2.15	2.72	3.45

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	2.85	14.7	27.0
HT X	5.27	6.83	8.40
HT 2	18.3	14.7	5.37

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.64	19.3	2.22

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.02	15.0
1.5	1.12	5.00
2.5	1.47	2.43
3.5	2.20	1.58
4.5	3.74	1.19
5.5	6.50	1.08

9 more lines

Line	Over	Under
2	1.16	4.05
2.25	1.33	2.90
2.75	1.58	2.18
3	1.74	1.92
3.25	1.97	1.72
3.75	2.51	1.43
4	3.05	1.30
4.25	3.42	1.23
5	6.20	1.06

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.25	2.75	1.36
-1	2.42	1.46
-0.75	2.04	1.66
-0.5	1.84	1.88
-0.25	1.61	2.12
0	1.42	2.59

7 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	6.05	1.06
-2	5.30	1.09
-1.5	3.08	1.28
+0.25	1.33	2.91
+0.75	1.16	4.10
+1	1.07	5.95
+1.5	1.04	6.85

Next FAW Championship matches

6 Nov	Baglan Dragons – Ynyshir Albions
6 Nov	Bangor City 1876 FC – Gresford Athletic
6 Nov	Afan Lido – Caerphilly Athletic
6 Nov	llanelli AFC – Pontardawe Town
6 Nov	Newport City – Treowen Stars
6 Nov	Penrhyncoch – Caersws

All FAW Championship fixtures and the table

Latest FAW Championship results

31 Oct	Newtown AFC 2-0 Buckley Town
31 Oct	Aberystwyth Town 2-1 Trethomas Bluebirds
31 Oct	Brickfield Rangers 1-1 Bala Town
31 Oct	Caersws 1-1 Bangor City 1876 FC
31 Oct	Gresford Athletic 1-2 Ruthin Town
31 Oct	Mold Alexandra 2-1 Rhyl