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Toluca vs Atletico San Luis• Liga MX, Mexico

#22.6:2.21-1FT18/10 · Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca1.4:2.0#15

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.33B365X5.90PIN28.55PINMargin at best3.8%Books6Markets89Rating67 · 33Exp. goals L54.1

Price board · 1X2captured 17 Oct 21:09 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
Pinnacle1.335.928.583.7%
Bet3651.335.508.005.9%
BetVictor1.305.508.506.9%
1xBet1.325.307.557.9%
Marathonbet1.315.307.508.5%
William Hill1.295.007.0011.8%
Best of all books1.335.928.583.7%
Average1.315.427.857.3%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

TolucaAtletico San Luis
Last 10#2Table position#151.75Points per game1.082Form pts · last 572.6Goals for · last 51.42.2Goals against · last 52.065Attack rating3548Defence rating5254Form rating4693H2H rating768Goals model3267Overall rating33

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 19 Oct 00:00 UTC

Toluca

5W 2D 3L · goals 23:14 · per match 2.3 for, 1.4 against

18 OctHAtletico San Luis1-1D
10 OctATigres UANL2-3L
3 OctAMonterrey1-2L
26 SepACruz Azul3-3D
21 SepHSantos Laguna2-3L
16 SepAPuebla1-0W
12 SepHAtlas5-2W
7 SepHMonterrey2-0W
3 SepHLeon2-0W
31 AugHFC Juarez4-0W

Atletico San Luis

3W 3D 4L · goals 14:18 · per match 1.4 for, 1.8 against

18 OctAToluca1-1D
11 OctHSantos Laguna1-2L
27 SepAU.N.A.M. - Pumas3-2W
19 SepHNecaxa3-1W
15 SepALeon0-2L
5 SepHGuadalajara Chivas0-3L
31 AugAMonterrey3-1W
23 AugHCF Pachuca1-1D
16 AugAClub America0-3L
12 AugAOrlando City SC2-2D

Head to head

9Toluca wins
2draws
2Atletico San Luis wins

13 meetings · goals 25:11 · last 10: 7W 1D 2L for Toluca

13 Apr 2026Liga MXLiga MXToluca1-1Atletico San Luis
30 Aug 2025Liga MXLiga MXAtletico San Luis1-3Toluca
17 Apr 2025Liga MXLiga MXAtletico San Luis0-1Toluca
25 Aug 2024Liga MXLiga MXToluca2-1Atletico San Luis
20 Apr 2024Liga MXLiga MXAtletico San Luis1-5Toluca
29 Oct 2023Liga MXLiga MXToluca3-1Atletico San Luis
26 Feb 2023Liga MXLiga MXToluca2-0Atletico San Luis
21 Aug 2022Liga MXLiga MXAtletico San Luis1-0Toluca
12 Feb 2022Liga MXLiga MXAtletico San Luis0-1Toluca
26 Sep 2021Liga MXLiga MXToluca1-2Atletico San Luis

Liga MX tableLiga MX: Aperturaupdated 19 Oct 05:20 UTC

In the Liga MX table, Toluca sit 2nd with 21 points from 12 games, while Atletico San Luis are 15th with 13 points from 12.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Club America1173127:14+1324
2Toluca1263326:16+1021
3Atlas1263319:18+121
4Guadalajara Chivas1255219:12+720
5Cruz Azul1262427:21+620
6Club Queretaro1162315:13+220
7Leon1253418:17+118
8Santos Laguna1251617:16+116
9Club Tijuana1144315:14+116
10U.N.A.M. - Pumas1244419:20-116
11Puebla1244412:13-116
12Monterrey1042417:15+214
13Tigres UANL1235414:16-214
14CF Pachuca1134418:14+413
15Atletico San Luis1234516:21-513
16Atlante FC1225513:19-611
17Necaxa1223715:25-109
18FC Juarez1211108:31-234

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg171%1.31X17%5.42212%7.88

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 3.8% margin.

1X2 since open average price

15 Oct 00:0117 Oct 17:501 1.32X 5.382 7.85
11.33 → 1.32 -0.8%X5.25 → 5.38 +2.5%27.44 → 7.85 +5.5%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
Pinnacle1.403.054.2%
Bet3651.402.886.2%
BetVictor1.392.709.0%
1xBet1.352.7410.6%
Marathonbet1.352.7410.6%
Best of all books1.403.054.2%
Average1.382.828.0%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Bet3651.672.107.5%
1xBet1.612.188.0%
BetVictor1.622.158.2%
William Hill1.622.158.2%
Marathonbet1.612.158.6%
Best of all books1.672.185.8%
Average1.632.158.1%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Toluca 45%Draw 45%Atletico San Luis 10%

The statistical model rated Toluca at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Atletico San Luis at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.31 | 5.42 | 7.88, which imply roughly 76.3% for a Toluca win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Liga MX table: Toluca are 2nd (21 pts, 26-16 goals), Atletico San Luis 15th (13 pts, 16-21).

Over their last five matches, Toluca averaged 2.6 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game; Atletico San Luis averaged 1.4 scored and 2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Winner : Toluca and +1.5 goals (goal line signal: over 1.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Toluca

4-1-3-2

Coach: A. Mohamed

Goalkeeper

  • 1H. González

Defence

  • 19S. Simón
  • 6F. Pereira
  • 25E. López
  • 20J. Gallardo

Midfield

  • 5F. Romero
  • 11Helinho
  • 9A. Vega
  • 35É. Gutiérrez

Attack

  • 16F. Viñas
  • 26Paulinho
Substitutes (10)
  • 15P. Pérez
  • 8N. Castro
  • 2D. Barbosa
  • 24F. Arce
  • 10J. Angulo
  • 29J. Díaz
  • 13Luan
  • 17B. García
  • 22L. García
  • 4B. Méndez

Atletico San Luis

3-4-3

Coach: Diego Mejía

Goalkeeper

  • 25G. Lajud

Defence

  • 3Robson Bambu
  • 31E. Águila
  • 18A. Cruz

Midfield

  • 2R. Torres
  • 21Ó. Macías
  • 10S. Salles-Lamonge
  • 5R. Meraz

Attack

  • 11D. Rodríguez
  • 17A. Duarte
  • 22Rafa Llorente
Substitutes (10)
  • 20L. Flores
  • 7B. Galdames
  • 30B. Galindo
  • 14M. García
  • 99F. Mora
  • 19S. Muñóz
  • 26S. Pérez Bouquet
  • 6Juanpe
  • 1A. Sánchez
  • 13J. Caicedo

Match Statistics

TolucaAtletico San Luis
0Expected Goals0
0Yellow Cards0
4Shots off Goal9
55%Ball Possession45%
15Corner Kicks2
1Shots on Goal1
0Red Cards0
0Blocked Shots0
5Total Shots10

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
1.315.427.86

Double chance

1XX212
1.073.171.12

Draw no bet

12
1.106.17

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.632.15

1st half

1X2
1.722.816.68

2nd half

1X2
1.583.206.03

HT/FT

HT / FTFT 1FT XFT 2
HT 11.7818.148.0
HT X4.288.9317.1
HT 218.719.713.8

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
1.3223.53.20

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.0118.8
1.51.096.28
2.51.382.82
3.51.971.78
4.53.201.31
5.55.911.10
6.511.01.04
7.522.01.01
8.541.0–
14 more lines
LineOverUnder
11.0112.0
1.751.085.45
21.114.95
2.251.233.42
2.751.452.54
31.562.27
3.251.781.97
3.752.201.60
42.591.44
4.252.781.35
4.753.701.20
54.801.11
5.255.151.10
69.30–

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-2.252.721.40
-22.441.50
-1.752.081.69
-1.51.861.90
-1.251.652.13
-11.452.57
13 more lines
LineHomeAway
-4.59.801.01
-49.601.01
-3.55.401.11
-3.255.111.12
-34.681.14
-2.753.521.24
-2.53.011.35
-0.751.362.93
-0.51.323.45
-0.251.194.00
01.095.97
+0.251.076.50
+0.51.107.00

Cards in match

LineOverUnder
4.51.801.91

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
5.51.055.47
6.51.056.60
7.51.174.10
8.51.362.82
9.51.702.05
10.52.091.66
11.52.641.39
12.53.701.21
13.55.301.10
14.57.701.03
14 more lines
LineOverUnder
61.065.29
71.094.55
81.213.25
8.751.392.67
91.482.42
9.251.542.29
9.751.721.98
101.901.88
10.251.941.77
10.752.151.56
112.401.48
122.921.26
133.871.14
145.001.07

Next Liga MX matches

21 OctGuadalajara Chivas – Necaxa
21 OctAtletico San Luis – Club Queretaro
21 OctFC Juarez – Atlante FC
21 OctTigres UANL – Leon
22 OctAtlas – Club America
22 OctToluca – Club Tijuana

All Liga MX fixtures and the table

Latest Liga MX results

19 OctMonterrey 2-1 CF Pachuca
18 OctCruz Azul 5-0 FC Juarez
18 OctLeon 3-5 Club America
17 OctGuadalajara Chivas 1-1 Tigres UANL
17 OctSantos Laguna 5-0 Club Queretaro
17 OctClub Tijuana 0-0 Puebla