Tukums II vs Super Nova 2• 1. Liga, Latvia

#111.6:2.20-3FT22/101.0:2.0#8

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.95DAFX4.10PIN23.071XBMargin at best8.2%Books7Markets40Rating51 · 49 levelExp. goals L53.4

Price board · 1X2captured 22 Oct 08:09 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	1.95	4.00	2.95	10.2%
Betfair	1.91	4.00	3.00	10.7%
Betano	1.93	3.90	3.00	10.8%
1xBet	1.92	3.80	3.07	11.0%
Marathonbet	1.90	3.80	3.00	12.3%
Pinnacle	1.87	4.10	2.88	12.6%
William Hill	1.91	3.70	3.00	12.7%
Best of all books	1.95	4.10	3.07	8.2%
Average	1.91	3.90	2.99	11.4%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Tukums IISuper Nova 2

Last 10#11Table position#80.79Points per game1.217Form pts · last 521.6Goals for · last 51.02.2Goals against · last 52.062Attack rating3848Defence rating5278Form rating220H2H rating10043Goals model5751Overall rating49

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 22 Oct 10:30 UTC

Tukums II

2W 2D 6L · goals 13:34 · per match 1.3 for, 3.4 against

18 Oct	A	Valmiera / BSS	2-2	D
11 Oct	A	Smiltene	2-3	L
26 Sep	H	JFK Ventspils	1-0	W
19 Sep	H	Rēzekne FA	3-1	W
12 Sep	A	Mārupe	0-5	L
6 Sep	H	Leevon / PPK	0-3	L
30 Aug	A	Skanste	2-6	L
9 Aug	A	Riga Mariners	2-4	L
3 Aug	H	JDFS Alberts	1-1	D
27 Jul	A	Metta / LU	0-9	L

Super Nova 2

1W 4D 5L · goals 10:17 · per match 1.0 for, 1.7 against

17 Oct	H	Metta / LU	1-3	L
10 Oct	A	Valmiera / BSS	1-1	D
19 Sep	H	Smiltene	0-2	L
11 Sep	A	Rēzekne FA	2-2	D
29 Aug	A	Leevon / PPK	1-2	L
23 Aug	H	Skanste	1-1	D
15 Aug	A	Mārupe	1-2	L
8 Aug	A	JFK Ventspils	2-0	W
31 Jul	H	Riga Mariners	0-3	L
25 Jul	A	JDFS Alberts	1-1	D

Head to head

0Tukums II wins

0draws

1Super Nova 2 wins

1 meeting · goals 1:3 · last 1: 0W 0D 1L for Tukums II

27 Jun 20261. Liga

1. Liga

Super Nova 23-1Tukums II

1. Liga table1. Ligaupdated 23 Oct 13:30 UTC

In the 1. Liga table, Tukums II sit 11th with 19 points from 24 games, while Super Nova 2 are 8th with 29 points from 24.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Metta / LU	23	19	3	1	96:18	+78	60
2	Valmiera / BSS	23	16	5	2	63:26	+37	53
3	Leevon / PPK	23	16	5	2	49:27	+22	53
4	Riga Mariners	23	15	5	3	54:30	+24	50
5	JDFS Alberts	23	12	5	6	46:33	+13	41
6	Mārupe	23	10	3	10	37:34	+3	33
7	Riga FC II	23	8	6	9	36:39	-3	30
8	Super Nova 2	24	7	8	9	33:36	-3	29
9	Skanste	23	8	2	13	46:48	-2	26
10	Smiltene	23	5	5	13	34:61	-27	20
11	Tukums II	24	5	4	15	31:68	-37	19
12	Rīgas FS II	23	5	3	15	37:65	-28	18
13	JFK Ventspils	23	3	7	13	21:45	-24	16
14	Rēzekne FA	23	1	3	19	17:70	-53	6

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg147%1.91X23%3.90230%2.99

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 8.2% margin.

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
1xBet	1.34	2.78	10.6%
Marathonbet	1.34	2.78	10.6%
Best of all books	1.34	2.78	10.6%
Average	1.34	2.78	10.6%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
1xBet	1.34	2.90	9.1%
William Hill	1.36	2.80	9.2%
Marathonbet	1.34	2.83	10.0%
Best of all books	1.36	2.90	8.0%
Average	1.35	2.84	9.4%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Tukums II 35%Draw 35%Super Nova 2 30%

The statistical model rated Tukums II at 35% to win, the draw at 35% and Super Nova 2 at 30% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.91 | 3.90 | 2.99, which imply roughly 52.4% for a Tukums II win versus the model's 35%.

Form context from the 1. Liga table: Tukums II are 11th (19 pts, 31-68 goals), Super Nova 2 8th (29 pts, 33-36).

Over their last five matches, Tukums II averaged 1.6 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game; Super Nova 2 averaged 1 scored and 2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Tukums II or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.91	3.90	2.99

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.30	1.73	1.19

Draw no bet

1	2
1.50	2.30

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.35	2.84

1st half

1	X	2
2.36	2.53	3.33

2nd half

1	X	2
2.20	2.85	3.17

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	2.96	14.0	23.5
HT X	5.60	7.00	7.95
HT 2	17.0	14.3	4.90

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.66	24.0	2.09

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.01	21.0
1.5	1.10	6.00
2.5	1.34	2.78
3.5	1.90	1.77
4.5	2.97	1.30
5.5	5.00	1.12

9 more lines

Line	Over	Under
2	1.11	4.95
2.25	1.22	3.48
2.75	1.42	2.53
3	1.52	2.27
3.25	1.72	1.96
3.75	2.12	1.60
4	2.46	1.44
4.25	2.70	1.37
5	4.55	1.13

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1	2.52	1.42
-0.75	2.13	1.60
-0.5	1.87	1.79
-0.25	1.69	1.98
0	1.50	2.34
+0.25	1.40	2.59

7 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	5.85	1.07
-2	5.20	1.10
-1.5	3.14	1.27
-1.25	2.82	1.34
+0.75	1.22	3.50
+1	1.11	4.90
+1.5	1.08	5.60

Next 1. Liga matches

24 Oct	Metta / LU – Leevon / PPK
24 Oct	Skanste – Smiltene
24 Oct	Mārupe – Riga Mariners

All 1. Liga fixtures and the table

Latest 1. Liga results

18 Oct	JFK Ventspils 0-0 Mārupe
18 Oct	Valmiera / BSS 2-2 Tukums II
17 Oct	Riga Mariners 4-3 Skanste
17 Oct	Super Nova 2 1-3 Metta / LU
17 Oct	Smiltene 2-2 Riga FC II
11 Oct	Smiltene 3-2 Tukums II