JFK Ventspils vs Mārupe• 1. Liga, Latvia

#130.4:3.20-0FT18/101.8:1.6#6

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.741XBX3.601XB22.241XBMargin at best8.9%Books4Markets38Rating36 · 64Exp. goals L53.5

Price board · 1X2captured 18 Oct 12:00 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
1xBet	2.75	3.50	2.18	10.8%
Marathonbet	2.68	3.50	2.16	12.2%
Pinnacle	2.75	3.54	2.09	12.5%
William Hill	2.70	3.30	2.20	12.8%
Best of all books	2.75	3.54	2.20	10.1%
Average	2.72	3.46	2.16	12.0%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

JFK VentspilsMārupe

Last 10#13Table position#60.70Points per game1.433Form pts · last 580.4Goals for · last 51.83.2Goals against · last 51.618Attack rating8233Defence rating6730Form rating7060H2H rating4021Goals model7936Overall rating64

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 18 Oct 06:40 UTC

JFK Ventspils

1W 2D 7L · goals 6:25 · per match 0.6 for, 2.5 against

10 Oct	H	Leevon / PPK	0-4	L
26 Sep	A	Tukums II	0-1	L
20 Sep	H	Skanste	1-0	W
12 Sep	A	Metta / LU	0-7	L
5 Sep	A	Rīgas FS II	1-4	L
29 Aug	H	Riga FC II	1-1	D
8 Aug	H	Super Nova 2	0-2	L
2 Aug	H	Smiltene	1-2	L
25 Jul	A	Riga Mariners	1-1	D
18 Jul	H	JDFS Alberts	1-3	L

Mārupe

4W 2D 4L · goals 15:15 · per match 1.5 for, 1.5 against

18 Oct	A	JFK Ventspils	0-0	D
10 Oct	A	Rīgas FS II	3-2	W
20 Sep	H	Riga FC II	0-0	D
12 Sep	H	Tukums II	5-0	W
29 Aug	H	JDFS Alberts	0-2	L
22 Aug	A	Valmiera / BSS	1-4	L
15 Aug	H	Super Nova 2	2-1	W
8 Aug	H	Leevon / PPK	0-1	L
1 Aug	A	Skanste	2-4	L
25 Jul	A	Rēzekne FA	2-1	W

Head to head

3JFK Ventspils wins

0draws

2Mārupe wins

5 meetings · goals 7:6 · last 5: 3W 0D 2L for JFK Ventspils

14 Jun 20261. Liga	1. Liga	Mārupe1-2JFK Ventspils
1 Nov 20251. Liga	1. Liga	JFK Ventspils1-0Mārupe
5 Jul 20251. Liga	1. Liga	Mārupe1-2JFK Ventspils
15 Sep 20241. Liga	1. Liga	JFK Ventspils2-3Mārupe
11 May 20241. Liga	1. Liga	Mārupe1-0JFK Ventspils

1. Liga table1. Ligaupdated 23 Oct 13:30 UTC

In the 1. Liga table, JFK Ventspils sit 13th with 16 points from 23 games, while Mārupe are 6th with 33 points from 23.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Metta / LU	23	19	3	1	96:18	+78	60
2	Valmiera / BSS	23	16	5	2	63:26	+37	53
3	Leevon / PPK	23	16	5	2	49:27	+22	53
4	Riga Mariners	23	15	5	3	54:30	+24	50
5	JDFS Alberts	23	12	5	6	46:33	+13	41
6	Mārupe	23	10	3	10	37:34	+3	33
7	Riga FC II	23	8	6	9	36:39	-3	30
8	Super Nova 2	24	7	8	9	33:36	-3	29
9	Skanste	23	8	2	13	46:48	-2	26
10	Smiltene	23	5	5	13	34:61	-27	20
11	Tukums II	24	5	4	15	31:68	-37	19
12	Rīgas FS II	23	5	3	15	37:65	-28	18
13	JFK Ventspils	23	3	7	13	21:45	-24	16
14	Rēzekne FA	23	1	3	19	17:70	-53	6

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg133%2.73X26%3.48241%2.16

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 8.9% margin.

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
1xBet	1.56	2.22	9.1%
Marathonbet	1.56	2.22	9.1%
Pinnacle	1.56	2.20	9.6%
Best of all books	1.56	2.22	9.1%
Average	1.56	2.21	9.3%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	1.50	2.40	8.3%
1xBet	1.48	2.41	9.1%
Marathonbet	1.48	2.36	9.9%
Best of all books	1.50	2.41	8.2%
Average	1.49	2.39	9.1%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

JFK Ventspils 10%Draw 45%Mārupe 45%

The statistical model rated JFK Ventspils at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Mārupe at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.73 | 3.48 | 2.16, which imply roughly 28.7% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the 1. Liga table: JFK Ventspils are 13th (16 pts, 21-45 goals), Mārupe 6th (33 pts, 37-34).

Over their last five matches, JFK Ventspils averaged 0.4 goals scored and 3.2 conceded per game; Mārupe averaged 1.8 scored and 1.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Mārupe.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.72	3.46	2.16

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.54	1.36	1.22

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.49	2.39

1st half

1	X	2
3.20	2.30	2.67

2nd half

1	X	2
2.98	2.58	2.50

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	4.40	15.0	20.0
HT X	7.00	5.70	6.00
HT 2	23.0	15.0	3.60

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.01	16.5	1.77

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.03	13.0
1.5	1.14	4.40
2.5	1.56	2.21
3.5	2.39	1.47
4.5	4.20	1.15
5.5	8.00	1.06

8 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1.75	1.17	3.98
2	1.22	3.50
2.25	1.39	2.63
2.75	1.69	1.98
3	1.91	1.75
3.25	2.16	1.59
3.75	2.80	1.34
4	3.50	1.22

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.5	2.71	1.38
-0.25	2.36	1.48
0	2.07	1.64
+0.25	1.78	1.88
+0.5	1.65	2.08
+0.75	1.44	2.47

8 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	5.35	1.09
-1	4.50	1.13
-0.75	3.20	1.26
+1	1.27	3.16
+1.25	1.20	3.68
+1.5	1.16	4.05
+2	1.03	7.60
+2.5	1.01	8.40

Next 1. Liga matches

24 Oct	Metta / LU – Leevon / PPK
24 Oct	Skanste – Smiltene
24 Oct	Mārupe – Riga Mariners

All 1. Liga fixtures and the table

Latest 1. Liga results

22 Oct	Tukums II 0-3 Super Nova 2
18 Oct	Valmiera / BSS 2-2 Tukums II
17 Oct	Riga Mariners 4-3 Skanste
17 Oct	Super Nova 2 1-3 Metta / LU
17 Oct	Smiltene 2-2 Riga FC II
11 Oct	Smiltene 3-2 Tukums II