Valmiera / BSS vs Tukums II• 1. Liga, Latvia

#22.6:1.82-2FT18/101.2:2.4#11

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.12WHX8.50MAR215.0WHMargin at best7.7%Books4Markets49Rating69 · 31Exp. goals L54.0

Price board · 1X2captured 18 Oct 08:45 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
William Hill	1.12	7.50	15.0	9.3%
Pinnacle	1.10	8.44	11.0	11.9%
Marathonbet	1.07	8.50	14.8	12.0%
1xBet	1.07	8.50	14.7	12.0%
Best of all books	1.12	8.50	15.0	7.7%
Average	1.09	8.23	13.9	11.1%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Valmiera / BSSTukums II

Last 10#2Table position#112.30Points per game0.798Form pts · last 572.6Goals for · last 51.21.8Goals against · last 52.468Attack rating3257Defence rating4357Form rating43100H2H rating084Goals model1669Overall rating31

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 18 Oct 06:40 UTC

Valmiera / BSS

7W 2D 1L · goals 29:12 · per match 2.9 for, 1.2 against

10 Oct	H	Super Nova 2	1-1	D
19 Sep	H	Riga Mariners	2-4	L
12 Sep	A	JDFS Alberts	2-1	W
5 Sep	H	Metta / LU	2-2	D
30 Aug	A	Rēzekne FA	6-1	W
22 Aug	H	Mārupe	4-1	W
8 Aug	A	Smiltene	4-1	W
1 Aug	H	Rīgas FS II	2-1	W
27 Jul	H	Riga FC II	3-0	W
18 Jul	A	Skanste	3-0	W

Tukums II

2W 2D 6L · goals 13:34 · per match 1.3 for, 3.4 against

18 Oct	A	Valmiera / BSS	2-2	D
11 Oct	A	Smiltene	2-3	L
26 Sep	H	JFK Ventspils	1-0	W
19 Sep	H	Rēzekne FA	3-1	W
12 Sep	A	Mārupe	0-5	L
6 Sep	H	Leevon / PPK	0-3	L
30 Aug	A	Skanste	2-6	L
9 Aug	A	Riga Mariners	2-4	L
3 Aug	H	JDFS Alberts	1-1	D
27 Jul	A	Metta / LU	0-9	L

Head to head

1Valmiera / BSS wins

0draws

0Tukums II wins

1 meeting · goals 4:1 · last 1: 1W 0D 0L for Valmiera / BSS

14 Jun 20261. Liga

1. Liga

Tukums II1-4Valmiera / BSS

1. Liga table1. Ligaupdated 23 Oct 13:30 UTC

In the 1. Liga table, Valmiera / BSS sit 2nd with 53 points from 23 games, while Tukums II are 11th with 19 points from 24.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Metta / LU	23	19	3	1	96:18	+78	60
2	Valmiera / BSS	23	16	5	2	63:26	+37	53
3	Leevon / PPK	23	16	5	2	49:27	+22	53
4	Riga Mariners	23	15	5	3	54:30	+24	50
5	JDFS Alberts	23	12	5	6	46:33	+13	41
6	Mārupe	23	10	3	10	37:34	+3	33
7	Riga FC II	23	8	6	9	36:39	-3	30
8	Super Nova 2	24	7	8	9	33:36	-3	29
9	Skanste	23	8	2	13	46:48	-2	26
10	Smiltene	23	5	5	13	34:61	-27	20
11	Tukums II	24	5	4	15	31:68	-37	19
12	Rīgas FS II	23	5	3	15	37:65	-28	18
13	JFK Ventspils	23	3	7	13	21:45	-24	16
14	Rēzekne FA	23	1	3	19	17:70	-53	6

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg183%1.09X11%8.2426%13.8

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 7.7% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.09 → 1.09 0.0%X8.25 → 8.24 -0.1%214.1 → 13.8 -1.7%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
1xBet	1.18	4.33	7.8%
Best of all books	1.18	4.33	7.8%
Average	1.18	4.33	7.8%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
1xBet	1.66	2.05	9.0%
William Hill	1.62	2.10	9.3%
Marathonbet	1.66	2.01	10.0%
Best of all books	1.66	2.10	7.9%
Average	1.65	2.05	9.4%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Valmiera / BSS 45%Draw 45%Tukums II 10%

The statistical model rated Valmiera / BSS at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Tukums II at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.09 | 8.24 | 13.85, which imply roughly 91.7% for a Valmiera / BSS win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the 1. Liga table: Valmiera / BSS are 2nd (53 pts, 63-26 goals), Tukums II 11th (19 pts, 31-68).

Over their last five matches, Valmiera / BSS averaged 2.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game; Tukums II averaged 1.2 scored and 2.4 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Winner : Valmiera / BSS and +1.5 goals (goal line signal: over 1.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.09	8.24	13.8

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.02	5.47	1.05

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.65	2.05

1st half

1	X	2
1.37	3.43	10.0

2nd half

1	X	2
1.28	4.37	9.63

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	1.44	32.0	90.0
HT X	4.70	14.5	36.0
HT 2	14.5	32.0	27.0

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.14	46.0	4.45

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	1.04	10.0
2.5	1.18	4.33
3.5	1.45	2.43
4.5	2.05	1.66
5.5	3.08	1.28
6.5	4.85	1.13

9 more lines

Line	Over	Under
3	1.21	3.58
3.25	1.33	2.83
3.75	1.54	2.21
4	1.67	2.00
4.25	1.86	1.80
4.75	2.27	1.51
5	2.64	1.38
5.25	2.88	1.32
6	4.65	1.12

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-3.25	2.45	1.44
-3	2.22	1.53
-2.75	1.96	1.71
-2.5	1.80	1.88
-2.25	1.62	2.08
-2	1.46	2.40

8 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-4.5	4.25	1.17
-4	3.85	1.18
-3.75	3.08	1.28
-3.5	2.66	1.37
-1.75	1.38	2.65
-1.5	1.32	2.88
-1	1.11	4.85
0	1.03	9.10

Next 1. Liga matches

24 Oct	Metta / LU – Leevon / PPK
24 Oct	Skanste – Smiltene
24 Oct	Mārupe – Riga Mariners

All 1. Liga fixtures and the table

Latest 1. Liga results

22 Oct	Tukums II 0-3 Super Nova 2
18 Oct	JFK Ventspils 0-0 Mārupe
17 Oct	Riga Mariners 4-3 Skanste
17 Oct	Super Nova 2 1-3 Metta / LU
17 Oct	Smiltene 2-2 Riga FC II
11 Oct	Smiltene 3-2 Tukums II