Smiltene vs Riga FC II• 1. Liga, Latvia

#102.2:2.42-2FT17/102.0:0.8#7

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

13.621XBX4.15PIN21.75WHMargin at best8.9%Books4Markets41Rating43 · 57Exp. goals L53.7

Price board · 1X2captured 17 Oct 08:56 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
1xBet	3.62	4.05	1.71	10.8%
Marathonbet	3.54	4.05	1.69	12.1%
William Hill	3.50	3.75	1.75	12.4%
Pinnacle	3.27	4.15	1.72	12.8%
Best of all books	3.62	4.15	1.75	8.9%
Average	3.48	4.00	1.72	11.9%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

SmilteneRiga FC II

Last 10#10Table position#70.87Points per game1.3010Form pts · last 592.2Goals for · last 52.02.4Goals against · last 50.852Attack rating4825Defence rating7550Form rating5040H2H rating6051Goals model4943Overall rating57

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 23 Oct 13:30 UTC

Smiltene

4W 1D 5L · goals 21:28 · per match 2.1 for, 2.8 against

17 Oct	H	Riga FC II	2-2	D
11 Oct	H	Tukums II	3-2	W
19 Sep	A	Super Nova 2	2-0	W
12 Sep	H	Riga Mariners	4-1	W
5 Sep	A	JDFS Alberts	2-3	L
29 Aug	H	Metta / LU	0-6	L
23 Aug	A	Leevon / PPK	2-4	L
8 Aug	H	Valmiera / BSS	1-4	L
2 Aug	A	JFK Ventspils	2-1	W
25 Jul	H	Rīgas FS II	3-5	L

Riga FC II

3W 4D 3L · goals 15:15 · per match 1.5 for, 1.5 against

11 Oct	H	Rēzekne FA	5-0	W
20 Sep	A	Mārupe	0-0	D
13 Sep	H	Leevon / PPK	1-1	D
7 Sep	H	Skanste	3-2	W
29 Aug	A	JFK Ventspils	1-1	D
24 Aug	H	Riga Mariners	1-3	L
8 Aug	A	JDFS Alberts	0-2	L
1 Aug	H	Metta / LU	2-2	D
27 Jul	A	Valmiera / BSS	0-3	L
19 Jul	H	Super Nova 2	2-1	W

Head to head

2Smiltene wins

0draws

7Riga FC II wins

9 meetings · goals 8:29 · last 9: 2W 0D 7L for Smiltene

14 Jun 20261. Liga	1. Liga	Riga FC II2-0Smiltene
1 Aug 20251. Liga	1. Liga	Riga FC II0-2Smiltene
6 Apr 20251. Liga	1. Liga	Smiltene5-1Riga FC II
2 Nov 20241. Liga	1. Liga	Smiltene0-3Riga FC II
20 Jul 20241. Liga	1. Liga	Riga FC II5-1Smiltene
22 Oct 20231. Liga	1. Liga	Smiltene0-7Riga FC II
1 Jul 20231. Liga	1. Liga	Riga FC II3-0Smiltene
3 Sep 20221. Liga	1. Liga	Smiltene0-5Riga FC II
30 Apr 20221. Liga	1. Liga	Riga FC II3-0Smiltene

1. Liga table1. Ligaupdated 23 Oct 13:30 UTC

In the 1. Liga table, Smiltene sit 10th with 20 points from 23 games, while Riga FC II are 7th with 30 points from 23.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Metta / LU	23	19	3	1	96:18	+78	60
2	Valmiera / BSS	23	16	5	2	63:26	+37	53
3	Leevon / PPK	23	16	5	2	49:27	+22	53
4	Riga Mariners	23	15	5	3	54:30	+24	50
5	JDFS Alberts	23	12	5	6	46:33	+13	41
6	Mārupe	23	10	3	10	37:34	+3	33
7	Riga FC II	23	8	6	9	36:39	-3	30
8	Super Nova 2	24	7	8	9	33:36	-3	29
9	Skanste	23	8	2	13	46:48	-2	26
10	Smiltene	23	5	5	13	34:61	-27	20
11	Tukums II	24	5	4	15	31:68	-37	19
12	Rīgas FS II	23	5	3	15	37:65	-28	18
13	JFK Ventspils	23	3	7	13	21:45	-24	16
14	Rēzekne FA	23	1	3	19	17:70	-53	6

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg126%3.48X22%4.00252%1.72

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 8.9% margin.

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
1xBet	1.29	3.04	10.4%
Marathonbet	1.29	3.04	10.4%
Best of all books	1.29	3.04	10.4%
Average	1.29	3.04	10.4%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	1.35	2.90	8.6%
1xBet	1.33	2.95	9.1%
Marathonbet	1.33	2.88	9.9%
Best of all books	1.35	2.95	8.0%
Average	1.34	2.91	9.2%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Smiltene 10%Draw 45%Riga FC II 45%

The statistical model rated Smiltene at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Riga FC II at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 3.48 | 4.00 | 1.72, which imply roughly 25% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the 1. Liga table: Smiltene are 10th (20 pts, 34-61 goals), Riga FC II 7th (30 pts, 36-39).

Over their last five matches, Smiltene averaged 2.2 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per game; Riga FC II averaged 2 scored and 0.8 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Riga FC II.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
3.48	4.00	1.72

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.91	1.21	1.17

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.34	2.91

1st half

1	X	2
3.69	2.60	2.15

2nd half

1	X	2
3.53	2.93	2.01

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	5.60	15.5	14.5
HT X	9.30	7.50	5.50
HT 2	23.0	15.5	2.70

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.27	28.0	1.55

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.01	23.0
1.5	1.08	6.50
2.5	1.29	3.04
3.5	1.80	1.88
4.5	2.70	1.36
5.5	4.80	1.15

9 more lines

Line	Over	Under
2	1.08	5.55
2.75	1.35	2.75
3	1.43	2.47
3.25	1.62	2.10
3.75	1.97	1.70
4	2.25	1.52
4.25	2.49	1.43
4.75	3.14	1.27
5	4.00	1.17

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
+0.25	2.23	1.53
+0.5	1.98	1.72
+0.75	1.78	1.87
+1	1.59	2.17
+1.25	1.46	2.41
+1.5	1.38	2.65

7 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	6.65	1.05
-1	5.95	1.07
-0.25	3.08	1.28
0	2.71	1.36
+1.75	1.27	3.14
+2	1.16	4.10
+2.5	1.12	4.70

Next 1. Liga matches

24 Oct	Metta / LU – Leevon / PPK
24 Oct	Skanste – Smiltene
24 Oct	Mārupe – Riga Mariners

All 1. Liga fixtures and the table

Latest 1. Liga results

22 Oct	Tukums II 0-3 Super Nova 2
18 Oct	JFK Ventspils 0-0 Mārupe
18 Oct	Valmiera / BSS 2-2 Tukums II
17 Oct	Riga Mariners 4-3 Skanste
17 Oct	Super Nova 2 1-3 Metta / LU
11 Oct	Smiltene 3-2 Tukums II