Smiltene vs Tukums II• 1. Liga, Latvia

#102.0:2.83-2FT11/101.2:3.0#11

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.91WHX4.00BFR23.30BFRMargin at best7.7%Books8Markets40Rating52 · 48 levelExp. goals L54.5

Price board · 1X2captured 11 Oct 08:49 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	1.91	3.80	3.15	10.4%
1xBet	1.84	3.84	3.28	10.9%
Bet365	1.85	3.90	3.20	10.9%
Betano	1.85	3.80	3.25	11.1%
Betfair	1.80	3.90	3.30	11.5%
Marathonbet	1.82	3.84	3.20	12.2%
Pinnacle	1.83	3.75	3.18	12.8%
William Hill	1.91	3.50	3.10	13.2%
Best of all books	1.91	3.90	3.30	8.3%
Average	1.85	3.79	3.21	11.6%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

SmilteneTukums II

Last 10#10Table position#110.87Points per game0.7910Form pts · last 572.0Goals for · last 51.22.8Goals against · last 53.063Attack rating3852Defence rating4850Form rating5050H2H rating5060Goals model4052Overall rating48

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 23 Oct 13:30 UTC

Smiltene

4W 1D 5L · goals 21:28 · per match 2.1 for, 2.8 against

17 Oct	H	Riga FC II	2-2	D
11 Oct	H	Tukums II	3-2	W
19 Sep	A	Super Nova 2	2-0	W
12 Sep	H	Riga Mariners	4-1	W
5 Sep	A	JDFS Alberts	2-3	L
29 Aug	H	Metta / LU	0-6	L
23 Aug	A	Leevon / PPK	2-4	L
8 Aug	H	Valmiera / BSS	1-4	L
2 Aug	A	JFK Ventspils	2-1	W
25 Jul	H	Rīgas FS II	3-5	L

Tukums II

2W 2D 6L · goals 13:34 · per match 1.3 for, 3.4 against

18 Oct	A	Valmiera / BSS	2-2	D
11 Oct	A	Smiltene	2-3	L
26 Sep	H	JFK Ventspils	1-0	W
19 Sep	H	Rēzekne FA	3-1	W
12 Sep	A	Mārupe	0-5	L
6 Sep	H	Leevon / PPK	0-3	L
30 Aug	A	Skanste	2-6	L
9 Aug	A	Riga Mariners	2-4	L
3 Aug	H	JDFS Alberts	1-1	D
27 Jul	A	Metta / LU	0-9	L

Head to head

3Smiltene wins

1draws

5Tukums II wins

9 meetings · goals 9:17 · last 9: 3W 1D 5L for Smiltene

24 May 20261. Liga	1. Liga	Tukums II1-1Smiltene
5 Oct 20251. Liga	1. Liga	Smiltene0-3Tukums II
24 May 20251. Liga	1. Liga	Tukums II1-2Smiltene
25 Aug 20241. Liga	1. Liga	Tukums II1-2Smiltene
28 Apr 20241. Liga	1. Liga	Smiltene0-2Tukums II
16 Sep 20231. Liga	1. Liga	Smiltene0-3Tukums II
14 May 20231. Liga	1. Liga	Tukums II2-1Smiltene
13 Nov 20221. Liga	1. Liga	Tukums II1-2Smiltene
30 Jul 20221. Liga	1. Liga	Smiltene1-3Tukums II

1. Liga table1. Ligaupdated 23 Oct 13:30 UTC

In the 1. Liga table, Smiltene sit 10th with 20 points from 23 games, while Tukums II are 11th with 19 points from 24.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Metta / LU	23	19	3	1	96:18	+78	60
2	Valmiera / BSS	23	16	5	2	63:26	+37	53
3	Leevon / PPK	23	16	5	2	49:27	+22	53
4	Riga Mariners	23	15	5	3	54:30	+24	50
5	JDFS Alberts	23	12	5	6	46:33	+13	41
6	Mārupe	23	10	3	10	37:34	+3	33
7	Riga FC II	23	8	6	9	36:39	-3	30
8	Super Nova 2	24	7	8	9	33:36	-3	29
9	Skanste	23	8	2	13	46:48	-2	26
10	Smiltene	23	5	5	13	34:61	-27	20
11	Tukums II	24	5	4	15	31:68	-37	19
12	Rīgas FS II	23	5	3	15	37:65	-28	18
13	JFK Ventspils	23	3	7	13	21:45	-24	16
14	Rēzekne FA	23	1	3	19	17:70	-53	6

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg148%1.85X24%3.79228%3.21

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 7.7% margin.

1X2 since open average price

12.04 → 1.85 -9.3%X3.78 → 3.80 +0.5%22.86 → 3.21 +12.2%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.36	3.00	6.9%
1xBet	1.28	3.05	10.9%
Marathonbet	1.28	3.05	10.9%
Best of all books	1.36	3.05	6.3%
Average	1.31	3.03	9.5%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
1xBet	1.31	3.05	9.1%
William Hill	1.30	3.10	9.2%
Marathonbet	1.31	2.97	10.0%
Best of all books	1.31	3.10	8.6%
Average	1.31	3.04	9.4%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Smiltene 45%Draw 45%Tukums II 10%

The statistical model rated Smiltene at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Tukums II at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.85 | 3.79 | 3.21, which imply roughly 54.1% for a Smiltene win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the 1. Liga table: Smiltene are 10th (20 pts, 34-61 goals), Tukums II 11th (19 pts, 31-68).

Over their last five matches, Smiltene averaged 2 goals scored and 2.8 conceded per game; Tukums II averaged 1.2 scored and 3 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : Smiltene or draw and +1.5 goals (goal line signal: over 1.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.85	3.79	3.21

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.27	1.76	1.20

Draw no bet

1	2
1.48	2.48

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.31	3.04

1st half

1	X	2
2.27	2.58	3.45

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.64	25.0	2.13

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.01	23.0
1.5	1.08	7.00
2.5	1.31	3.03
3.5	1.78	1.89
4.5	2.66	1.37
5.5	4.60	1.15

9 more lines

Line	Over	Under
2	1.08	5.55
2.75	1.35	2.77
3	1.43	2.49
3.25	1.61	2.12
3.75	1.93	1.72
4	2.21	1.54
4.25	2.43	1.45
4.75	3.08	1.28
5	3.90	1.18

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.25	2.65	1.38
-1	2.39	1.48
-0.75	2.03	1.65
-0.5	1.85	1.85
-0.25	1.69	2.03
0	1.43	2.48

7 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	5.25	1.09
-2	4.65	1.12
-1.75	3.50	1.22
-1.5	2.92	1.31
+0.25	1.34	2.79
+1	1.10	5.20
+1.5	1.07	5.90

Next 1. Liga matches

24 Oct	Metta / LU – Leevon / PPK
24 Oct	Skanste – Smiltene
24 Oct	Mārupe – Riga Mariners

All 1. Liga fixtures and the table

Latest 1. Liga results

22 Oct	Tukums II 0-3 Super Nova 2
18 Oct	JFK Ventspils 0-0 Mārupe
18 Oct	Valmiera / BSS 2-2 Tukums II
17 Oct	Riga Mariners 4-3 Skanste
17 Oct	Super Nova 2 1-3 Metta / LU
17 Oct	Smiltene 2-2 Riga FC II