SC Villa vs Mbarara City• Premier League, Uganda

#22.6:0.413:00Today · Mutesa II Stadium, Kampala0.4:0.6#14

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.17B365X6.50B365218.01XBMargin at best6.4%Books2Markets59Rating74 · 26Exp. goals L52.0

Price board · 1X2captured 22 Oct 00:44 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Bet365	1.17	6.50	12.0	9.2%
1xBet	1.10	6.15	18.0	12.7%
Best of all books	1.17	6.50	18.0	6.4%
Average	1.14	6.33	15.0	10.6%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

SC VillaMbarara City

Last 10#2Table position#142.33Points per game1.005Form pts · last 552.6Goals for · last 50.40.4Goals against · last 50.687Attack rating1360Defence rating4072Form rating28100H2H rating0100Goals model074Overall rating26

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 22 Oct 03:30 UTC

SC Villa

5W 2D 3L · goals 16:9 · per match 1.6 for, 0.9 against

17 Oct	A	Lifofane	0-3	L
14 Oct	A	Police	6-1	W
11 Oct	H	LMPS	1-1	D
7 Oct	A	Kataka	1-1	D
3 Oct	H	Members	0-1	L
15 Sep	A	LDF	0-1	L
15 Sep	H	Kigezi HomeBoyz	3-0	W
9 Sep	H	Express	2-0	W
6 Sep	H	LCS	2-1	W
4 Sep	A	URA	1-0	W

Mbarara City

4W 2D 4L · goals 9:11 · per match 0.9 for, 1.1 against

11 Oct	H	Blacks Power	2-1	W
7 Oct	A	Ntugasaze	0-1	L
16 Sep	H	Entebbe UPPC	0-0	D
11 Sep	H	NEC	0-0	D
29 Aug	A	Police	0-1	L
23 May	A	KCCA	1-4	L
19 May	H	Buhimba Saints	2-0	W
13 May	H	SC Villa	1-3	L
6 May	A	Lugazi	1-0	W
28 Apr	H	Express	2-1	W

Head to head

10SC Villa wins

2draws

3Mbarara City wins

15 meetings · goals 31:14 · last 10: 7W 1D 2L for SC Villa

13 May 2026Premier League	Premier League	Mbarara City1-3SC Villa
28 Jan 2026Premier League	Premier League	SC Villa6-1Mbarara City
16 Apr 2025Premier League	Premier League	Mbarara City0-2SC Villa
16 Sep 2024Premier League	Premier League	SC Villa4-2Mbarara City
30 Mar 2024Premier League	Premier League	SC Villa2-1Mbarara City
25 Nov 2023Premier League	Premier League	Mbarara City0-0SC Villa
19 Apr 2022Premier League	Premier League	SC Villa2-1Mbarara City
30 Nov 2021Premier League	Premier League	Mbarara City1-0SC Villa
24 Apr 2021Premier League	Premier League	Mbarara City2-1SC Villa
9 Dec 2020Premier League	Premier League	SC Villa3-0Mbarara City

Premier League tableRegular Seasonupdated 22 Oct 03:30 UTC

In the Premier League table, SC Villa sit 2nd with 14 points from 6 games, while Mbarara City are 14th with 5 points from 5.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	BUL	7	6	1	0	15:4	+11	19
2	SC Villa	6	4	2	0	14:3	+11	14
3	NEC	7	4	2	1	12:4	+8	14
4	Entebbe UPPC	6	3	2	1	6:2	+4	11
5	Vipers	5	3	1	1	13:2	+11	10
6	Maroons	7	3	1	3	13:8	+5	10
7	KCCA	6	3	1	2	4:4	0	10
8	Blacks Power	6	3	0	3	6:9	-3	9
9	Kitara	4	2	2	0	5:3	+2	8
10	UPDF	6	2	2	2	4:5	-1	8
11	Lugazi	7	2	2	3	4:9	-5	8
12	Police	6	2	1	3	4:10	-6	7
13	Express	7	1	3	3	4:6	-2	6
14	Mbarara City	5	1	2	2	2:3	-1	5
15	URA	5	1	1	3	3:7	-4	4
16	Ntugasaze	6	1	0	5	3:13	-10	3
17	Kataka	7	0	2	5	4:17	-13	2
18	Kigezi HomeBoyz	5	0	1	4	1:8	-7	1

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg180%1.14X14%6.3326%15.0

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 6.4% margin.

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.53	2.38	7.4%
1xBet	1.52	2.24	10.4%
Best of all books	1.53	2.38	7.4%
Average	1.52	2.31	8.9%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
1xBet	2.53	1.44	9.0%
Best of all books	2.53	1.44	9.0%
Average	2.53	1.44	9.0%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

SC Villa 50%Draw 50%Mbarara City 0%

The statistical model rates SC Villa at 50% to win, the draw at 50% and Mbarara City at 0% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.14 | 6.33 | 15.00, which imply roughly 87.7% for a SC Villa win versus the model's 50%.

Form context from the Premier League table: SC Villa are 2nd (14 pts, 14-3 goals), Mbarara City 14th (5 pts, 2-3).

Over their last five matches, SC Villa averaged 2.6 goals scored and 0.4 conceded per game; Mbarara City averaged 0.4 scored and 0.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Winner : SC Villa and -3.5 goals (goal line signal: under 3.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.14	6.33	15.0

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.01	4.58	1.07

Draw no bet

1	2
1.05	8.50

Both teams to score

Yes	No
2.53	1.44

1st half

1	X	2
1.54	2.65	12.8

2nd half

1	X	2
1.33	3.50	13.8

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	1.58	27.5	75.5
HT X	3.63	8.65	27.0
HT 2	25.5	30.0	28.5

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.22	15.0	4.50

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	–	17.0
1.5	1.14	4.45
2.5	1.53	2.31
3.5	2.33	1.51
4.5	3.96	1.17
5.5	7.40	1.03

12 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1.75	1.17	4.00
2	1.21	3.58
2.25	1.37	2.66
2.75	1.65	2.00
3	1.83	1.79
3.25	2.07	1.61
3.75	2.66	1.37
4	3.28	1.25
4.25	3.58	1.21
4.75	4.90	1.11
5	6.70	1.05
5.25	7.08	1.04

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-2.75	2.56	1.40
-2.5	2.21	1.53
-2.25	1.99	1.66
-2	1.82	1.91
-1.75	1.59	2.10
-1.5	1.48	2.33

11 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-4.5	7.30	1.03
-4	6.60	1.05
-3.75	4.80	1.12
-3.5	3.84	1.18
-3.25	3.50	1.22
-3	3.14	1.27
-1.25	1.33	2.83
-1	1.18	3.84
-0.75	1.15	4.30
-0.25	1.05	8.00
0	1.03	9.10

Next Premier League matches

22 Oct

KCCA – UPDF

All Premier League fixtures and the table

Latest Premier League results

21 Oct	Lugazi 0-0 Express
21 Oct	BUL 2-1 NEC
20 Oct	Maroons 4-1 Kataka
18 Oct	UPDF 0-2 BUL
15 Oct	URA 0-0 Entebbe UPPC
15 Oct	Express 1-2 UPDF