Express vs UPDF• Premier League, Uganda

#140.6:0.81-2FT15/10 · Hamz Stadium0.5:0.5#9

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.00WHX3.10BFR24.50B365Margin at best4.5%Books9Markets47Rating66 · 34Exp. goals L51.2

Price board · 1X2captured 15 Oct 08:44 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	1.90	3.05	4.10	9.8%
Betfair	1.90	3.10	4.00	9.9%
1xBet	1.91	3.00	3.96	10.9%
Bet365	1.80	3.00	4.50	11.1%
Betano	1.93	3.00	3.80	11.5%
William Hill	2.00	2.90	3.60	12.3%
Marathonbet	1.89	3.00	3.84	12.3%
Pinnacle	1.95	2.97	3.61	12.7%
BetVictor	1.75	2.80	3.60	20.6%
Best of all books	2.00	3.10	4.50	4.5%
Average	1.89	2.98	3.89	12.1%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

ExpressUPDF

Last 10#14Table position#90.83Points per game1.605Form pts · last 550.6Goals for · last 50.50.8Goals against · last 50.560Attack rating4033Defence rating6750Form rating5093H2H rating784Goals model1666Overall rating34

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 15 Oct 09:10 UTC

Express

3W 3D 4L · goals 9:10 · per match 0.9 for, 1.0 against

8 Oct	A	NEC	0-0	D
17 Sep	H	Kitara	1-1	D
9 Sep	A	SC Villa	0-2	L
3 Sep	H	KCCA	2-0	W
30 Aug	A	BUL	0-1	L
23 May	A	Vipers	0-2	L
19 May	H	Lugazi	0-0	D
12 May	H	Kitara	3-2	W
8 May	A	Buhimba Saints	2-0	W
28 Apr	A	Mbarara City	1-2	L

UPDF

1W 4D 5L · goals 4:10 · per match 0.4 for, 1.0 against

17 Sep	H	Maroons	1-0	W
10 Sep	A	Police	0-0	D
1 Sep	A	Entebbe UPPC	1-2	L
29 Aug	H	Kataka	0-0	D
23 May	A	SC Villa	1-2	L
19 May	H	Calvary	0-0	D
13 May	H	KCCA	1-2	L
7 May	A	Entebbe UPPC	0-2	L
29 Apr	A	Police	0-2	L
24 Apr	H	URA	0-0	D

Head to head

6Express wins

5draws

3UPDF wins

14 meetings · goals 15:9 · last 10: 4W 5D 1L for Express

15 Apr 2026Premier League	Premier League	UPDF0-1Express
26 Sep 2025Premier League	Premier League	Express1-0UPDF
24 Apr 2025Premier League	Premier League	Express2-2UPDF
6 Jan 2025Premier League	Premier League	UPDF0-2Express
27 Feb 2024Premier League	Premier League	Express3-1UPDF
27 Oct 2023Premier League	Premier League	UPDF1-1Express
11 Feb 2023Premier League	Premier League	Express1-1UPDF
1 Oct 2022Premier League	Premier League	UPDF1-1Express
14 May 2022Premier League	Premier League	Express0-0UPDF
23 Oct 2021Premier League	Premier League	UPDF1-0Express

Premier League tableRegular Seasonupdated 15 Oct 17:01 UTC

In the Premier League table, Express sit 14th with 5 points from 6 games, while UPDF are 9th with 8 points from 5.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	SC Villa	6	4	2	0	14:3	+11	14
2	NEC	6	4	2	0	11:2	+9	14
3	BUL	5	4	1	0	11:3	+8	13
4	Vipers	5	3	1	1	13:2	+11	10
5	Entebbe UPPC	5	3	1	1	6:2	+4	10
6	KCCA	6	3	1	2	4:4	0	10
7	Blacks Power	6	3	0	3	6:9	-3	9
8	Kitara	4	2	2	0	5:3	+2	8
9	UPDF	5	2	2	1	4:3	+1	8
10	Maroons	6	2	1	3	9:7	+2	7
11	Lugazi	6	2	1	3	4:9	-5	7
12	Police	6	2	1	3	4:10	-6	7
13	Mbarara City	5	1	2	2	2:3	-1	5
14	Express	6	1	2	3	4:6	-2	5
15	URA	4	1	0	3	3:7	-4	3
16	Ntugasaze	6	1	0	5	3:13	-10	3
17	Kataka	6	0	2	4	3:13	-10	2
18	Kigezi HomeBoyz	5	0	1	4	1:8	-7	1

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg147%1.90X30%2.98223%3.86

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 4.5% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.81 → 1.89 +4.4%X3.04 → 2.98 -2.0%24.42 → 3.89 -12.0%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	2.50	1.50	6.7%
Betfair	2.25	1.57	8.1%
1xBet	2.24	1.55	9.2%
Marathonbet	2.24	1.55	9.2%
Pinnacle	2.28	1.52	9.6%
Betano	2.27	1.52	9.8%
BetVictor	2.05	1.40	20.2%
Best of all books	2.50	1.57	3.7%
Average	2.26	1.52	10.2%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	2.10	1.65	8.2%
1xBet	1.97	1.72	8.9%
William Hill	1.95	1.73	9.1%
Marathonbet	1.97	1.69	9.9%
BetVictor	1.85	1.50	20.7%
Best of all books	2.10	1.73	5.4%
Average	1.97	1.66	11.1%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Express 45%Draw 45%UPDF 10%

The statistical model rated Express at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and UPDF at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.90 | 2.98 | 3.86, which imply roughly 52.6% for a Express win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Premier League table: Express are 14th (5 pts, 4-6 goals), UPDF 9th (8 pts, 4-3).

Over their last five matches, Express averaged 0.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game; UPDF averaged 0.5 scored and 0.5 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : Express or draw and -3.5 goals (goal line signal: under 3.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.89	2.98	3.89

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.18	1.74	1.28

Draw no bet

1	2
1.34	2.76

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.97	1.66

1st half

1	X	2
2.58	1.92	4.54

2nd half

1	X	2
2.35	2.22	4.08

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	3.02	15.4	46.6
HT X	4.50	4.27	8.26
HT 2	29.4	15.8	6.88

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.67	6.65	2.81

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.04	7.53
1.5	1.40	2.61
2.5	2.26	1.52
3.5	4.40	1.15
4.5	8.87	1.02
5.5	23.0	1.01

12 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.05	6.55
1	1.07	5.85
1.25	1.23	3.44
1.75	1.50	2.32
2	1.68	1.92
2.25	1.97	1.70
2.75	2.64	1.38
3	3.34	1.24
3.25	3.80	1.19
3.75	5.40	1.09
4	8.00	1.02
4.25	8.48	1.01

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1	2.90	1.33
-0.75	2.23	1.54
-0.5	1.84	1.78
-0.25	1.65	2.03
0	1.37	2.68
+0.25	1.26	3.22

10 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	8.60	1.01
-2.25	8.10	1.02
-2	7.60	1.03
-1.75	4.95	1.11
-1.5	3.78	1.19
-1.25	3.32	1.25
+0.75	1.10	5.10
+1	1.01	8.70
+1.25	1.01	9.57
+1.5	1.03	8.30