UPDF vs BUL• Premier League, Uganda

#90.8:0.60-2FT18/10 · Nakivubo Stadium, Kampala2.2:0.6#1

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

14.00B365X3.00B36522.10WHMargin at best6.0%Books6Markets49Rating48 · 53 levelExp. goals L52.1

Price board · 1X2captured 18 Oct 07:57 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
1xBet	3.54	2.93	2.06	10.9%
Bet365	4.00	3.00	1.90	11.0%
Marathonbet	3.44	2.93	2.04	12.2%
Pinnacle	3.37	2.88	2.08	12.5%
William Hill	3.30	2.88	2.10	12.6%
BetVictor	3.00	2.80	1.95	20.3%
Best of all books	4.00	3.00	2.10	6.0%
Average	3.44	2.90	2.02	13.0%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

UPDFBUL

Last 10#9Table position#11.33Points per game2.678Form pts · last 5130.8Goals for · last 52.20.6Goals against · last 50.627Attack rating7350Defence rating5038Form rating6260H2H rating40100Goals model048Overall rating53

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 18 Oct 10:30 UTC

UPDF

2W 3D 5L · goals 6:11 · per match 0.6 for, 1.1 against

15 Oct	A	Express	2-1	W
17 Sep	H	Maroons	1-0	W
10 Sep	A	Police	0-0	D
1 Sep	A	Entebbe UPPC	1-2	L
29 Aug	H	Kataka	0-0	D
23 May	A	SC Villa	1-2	L
19 May	H	Calvary	0-0	D
13 May	H	KCCA	1-2	L
7 May	A	Entebbe UPPC	0-2	L
29 Apr	A	Police	0-2	L

BUL

4W 4D 2L · goals 12:9 · per match 1.2 for, 0.9 against

13 Oct	A	Lugazi	0-0	D
15 Sep	H	Blacks Power	2-1	W
8 Sep	H	Ntugasaze	4-1	W
3 Sep	A	Kataka	4-1	W
30 Aug	H	Express	1-0	W
23 May	A	Entebbe UPPC	0-4	L
19 May	H	Kitara	1-1	D
12 May	H	Lugazi	0-0	D
8 May	A	SC Villa	0-0	D
28 Apr	H	NEC	0-1	L

Head to head

5UPDF wins

2draws

7BUL wins

14 meetings · goals 21:26 · last 10: 4W 2D 4L for UPDF

21 Apr 2026Premier League	Premier League	BUL2-5UPDF
30 Jan 2026Premier League	Premier League	UPDF0-1BUL
24 May 2025Premier League	Premier League	UPDF2-3BUL
4 Dec 2024Premier League	Premier League	BUL0-2UPDF
12 Mar 2024Premier League	Premier League	BUL0-1UPDF
9 Nov 2023Premier League	Premier League	UPDF2-0BUL
21 Feb 2023Premier League	Premier League	UPDF1-1BUL
8 Oct 2022Premier League	Premier League	BUL3-1UPDF
1 Mar 2022Premier League	Premier League	BUL5-1UPDF
22 Dec 2021Premier League	Premier League	UPDF1-1BUL

Premier League tableRegular Seasonupdated 20 Oct 02:30 UTC

In the Premier League table, UPDF sit 9th with 8 points from 6 games, while BUL are 1st with 16 points from 6.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	BUL	6	5	1	0	13:3	+10	16
2	SC Villa	6	4	2	0	14:3	+11	14
3	NEC	6	4	2	0	11:2	+9	14
4	Entebbe UPPC	6	3	2	1	6:2	+4	11
5	Vipers	5	3	1	1	13:2	+11	10
6	KCCA	6	3	1	2	4:4	0	10
7	Blacks Power	6	3	0	3	6:9	-3	9
8	Kitara	4	2	2	0	5:3	+2	8
9	UPDF	6	2	2	2	4:5	-1	8
10	Maroons	6	2	1	3	9:7	+2	7
11	Lugazi	6	2	1	3	4:9	-5	7
12	Police	6	2	1	3	4:10	-6	7
13	Mbarara City	5	1	2	2	2:3	-1	5
14	Express	6	1	2	3	4:6	-2	5
15	URA	5	1	1	3	3:7	-4	4
16	Ntugasaze	6	1	0	5	3:13	-10	3
17	Kataka	6	0	2	4	3:13	-10	2
18	Kigezi HomeBoyz	5	0	1	4	1:8	-7	1

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg126%3.36X31%2.88243%2.06

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 6.0% margin.

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	2.35	1.57	6.2%
Pinnacle	2.27	1.55	8.6%
1xBet	2.28	1.53	9.2%
Marathonbet	2.28	1.53	9.2%
BetVictor	1.95	1.44	20.7%
Best of all books	2.35	1.57	6.2%
Average	2.23	1.52	10.5%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	1.95	1.75	8.4%
1xBet	1.95	1.74	8.8%
Marathonbet	1.95	1.71	9.8%
BetVictor	1.78	1.57	19.9%
Best of all books	1.95	1.75	8.4%
Average	1.91	1.69	11.5%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

UPDF 45%Draw 45%BUL 10%

The statistical model rated UPDF at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and BUL at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 3.36 | 2.88 | 2.06, which imply roughly 29.8% for a UPDF win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Premier League table: UPDF are 9th (8 pts, 4-5 goals), BUL 1st (16 pts, 13-3).

Over their last five matches, UPDF averaged 0.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game; BUL averaged 2.2 scored and 0.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : UPDF or draw and -3.5 goals (goal line signal: under 3.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
3.44	2.90	2.02

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.64	1.20	1.27

Draw no bet

1	2
2.65	1.37

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.91	1.69

1st half

1	X	2
4.33	1.92	2.63

2nd half

1	X	2
3.83	2.18	2.48

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	6.17	15.4	32.0
HT X	7.83	4.25	4.73
HT 2	45.7	16.0	3.17

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.60	6.80	1.71

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.04	7.10
1.5	1.38	2.64
2.5	2.23	1.52
3.5	4.25	1.15
4.5	9.00	–
5.5	23.0	1.01

12 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.05	6.45
1	1.07	5.75
1.25	1.24	3.40
1.75	1.49	2.32
2	1.66	1.93
2.25	1.93	1.67
2.75	2.65	1.38
3	3.40	1.24
3.25	3.88	1.18
3.75	5.50	1.08
4	8.20	1.02
4.25	8.57	1.01

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.25	2.91	1.32
0	2.44	1.47
+0.25	1.85	1.73
+0.5	1.78	1.99
+0.75	1.58	2.17
+1	1.26	3.22

12 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	8.70	1.01
-1.25	8.07	1.02
-1	7.50	1.03
-0.75	4.55	1.13
-0.5	3.29	1.26
+1.25	1.19	3.76
+1.5	1.15	4.25
+1.75	1.08	5.55
+2	1.01	8.80
+2.25	1.06	6.05
+2.5	1.04	7.78
+2.75	1.01	8.80

Latest Premier League results

20 Oct	Maroons 4-1 Kataka
15 Oct	URA 0-0 Entebbe UPPC
15 Oct	Express 1-2 UPDF
15 Oct	Kataka 0-5 Vipers
14 Oct	Police 1-6 SC Villa
13 Oct	Lugazi 0-0 BUL