Lugazi vs Express• Premier League, Uganda

#110.4:1.60-0FTToday · Lugazi FC Stadium, Najjembe0.8:1.0#14

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.73PINX2.90B36522.70DAFMargin at best8.1%Books9Markets40Rating49 · 51 levelExp. goals L51.9

Price board · 1X2captured 21 Oct 09:14 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	2.65	2.85	2.70	9.9%
Betfair	2.63	2.90	2.63	10.5%
Betano	2.75	2.70	2.65	11.1%
Bet365	2.70	2.62	2.75	11.6%
1xBet	2.71	2.71	2.60	12.3%
Marathonbet	2.71	2.71	2.60	12.3%
Pinnacle	2.73	2.62	2.65	12.5%
William Hill	2.62	2.70	2.60	13.7%
BetVictor	2.45	2.70	2.38	19.9%
Best of all books	2.75	2.90	2.75	7.2%
Average	2.66	2.72	2.62	12.5%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

LugaziExpress

Last 10#11Table position#141.17Points per game0.834Form pts · last 550.4Goals for · last 50.81.6Goals against · last 51.033Attack rating6738Defence rating6244Form rating5680H2H rating20100Goals model049Overall rating51

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 21 Oct 02:30 UTC

Lugazi

2W 3D 5L · goals 4:11 · per match 0.4 for, 1.1 against

13 Oct	H	BUL	0-0	D
7 Oct	A	Maroons	0-3	L
16 Sep	H	Police	0-2	L
9 Sep	A	Entebbe UPPC	1-0	W
1 Sep	A	NEC	1-3	L
29 Aug	H	Kigezi HomeBoyz	2-1	W
23 May	H	Maroons	0-1	L
19 May	A	Express	0-0	D
12 May	A	BUL	0-0	D
6 May	H	Mbarara City	0-1	L

Express

3W 3D 4L · goals 9:10 · per match 0.9 for, 1.0 against

15 Oct	H	UPDF	1-2	L
8 Oct	A	NEC	0-0	D
17 Sep	H	Kitara	1-1	D
9 Sep	A	SC Villa	0-2	L
3 Sep	H	KCCA	2-0	W
30 Aug	A	BUL	0-1	L
23 May	A	Vipers	0-2	L
19 May	H	Lugazi	0-0	D
12 May	H	Kitara	3-2	W
8 May	A	Buhimba Saints	2-0	W

Head to head

2Lugazi wins

2draws

0Express wins

4 meetings · goals 2:0 · last 4: 2W 2D 0L for Lugazi

19 May 2026Premier League	Premier League	Express0-0Lugazi
20 Nov 2025Premier League	Premier League	Lugazi0-0Express
6 Mar 2025Premier League	Premier League	Lugazi1-0Express
22 Oct 2024Premier League	Premier League	Express0-1Lugazi

Premier League tableRegular Seasonupdated 21 Oct 02:30 UTC

In the Premier League table, Lugazi sit 11th with 7 points from 6 games, while Express are 14th with 5 points from 6.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	BUL	6	5	1	0	13:3	+10	16
2	SC Villa	6	4	2	0	14:3	+11	14
3	NEC	6	4	2	0	11:2	+9	14
4	Entebbe UPPC	6	3	2	1	6:2	+4	11
5	Vipers	5	3	1	1	13:2	+11	10
6	Maroons	7	3	1	3	13:8	+5	10
7	KCCA	6	3	1	2	4:4	0	10
8	Blacks Power	6	3	0	3	6:9	-3	9
9	Kitara	4	2	2	0	5:3	+2	8
10	UPDF	6	2	2	2	4:5	-1	8
11	Lugazi	6	2	1	3	4:9	-5	7
12	Police	6	2	1	3	4:10	-6	7
13	Mbarara City	5	1	2	2	2:3	-1	5
14	Express	6	1	2	3	4:6	-2	5
15	URA	5	1	1	3	3:7	-4	4
16	Ntugasaze	6	1	0	5	3:13	-10	3
17	Kataka	7	0	2	5	4:17	-13	2
18	Kigezi HomeBoyz	5	0	1	4	1:8	-7	1

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg133%2.67X33%2.72234%2.62

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 8.1% margin.

1X2 since open average price

12.38 → 2.64 +10.9%X2.82 → 2.77 -1.8%22.87 → 2.60 -9.4%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	2.50	1.50	6.7%
Betfair	2.55	1.45	8.2%
Pinnacle	2.45	1.45	9.8%
1xBet	2.43	1.44	10.6%
Marathonbet	2.43	1.44	10.6%
Best of all books	2.55	1.50	5.9%
Average	2.47	1.46	9.1%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	2.10	1.65	8.2%
William Hill	1.95	1.73	9.1%
1xBet	2.01	1.68	9.3%
Marathonbet	2.01	1.66	10.0%
BetVictor	1.83	1.53	20.0%
Best of all books	2.10	1.73	5.4%
Average	1.98	1.65	11.1%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Lugazi 45%Draw 45%Express 10%

The statistical model rated Lugazi at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Express at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.67 | 2.72 | 2.62, which imply roughly 37.5% for a Lugazi win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Premier League table: Lugazi are 11th (7 pts, 4-9 goals), Express 14th (5 pts, 4-6).

Over their last five matches, Lugazi averaged 0.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game; Express averaged 0.8 scored and 1 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : Lugazi or draw and -3.5 goals (goal line signal: under 3.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.66	2.72	2.62

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.39	1.35	1.32

Draw no bet

1	2
1.79	1.75

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.98	1.65

1st half

1	X	2
3.43	1.85	3.36

2nd half

1	X	2
3.14	2.12	2.97

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	4.62	14.5	36.4
HT X	5.92	3.92	5.82
HT 2	36.4	15.0	4.41

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.12	5.95	2.08

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.07	6.43
1.5	1.44	2.41
2.5	2.47	1.46
3.5	4.93	1.12
4.5	10.5	1.02
5.5	26.0	1.01

11 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.09	5.35
1	1.12	4.75
1.25	1.29	3.10
1.75	1.59	2.14
2	1.79	1.79
2.25	2.14	1.58
2.75	2.92	1.32
3	3.88	1.18
3.25	4.30	1.15
3.75	5.95	1.07
4	8.80	1.01

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.5	2.68	1.38
-0.25	2.15	1.56
0	1.84	1.79
+0.25	1.56	2.18
+0.5	1.40	2.61
+0.75	1.26	3.21

9 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-1.75	8.28	1.02
-1.5	6.15	1.06
-1.25	5.65	1.08
-1	5.10	1.10
-0.75	3.34	1.24
+1	1.12	4.75
+1.25	1.09	5.25
+1.5	1.07	5.75
+1.75	1.02	7.70

Latest Premier League results

21 Oct	BUL 2-1 NEC
20 Oct	Maroons 4-1 Kataka
18 Oct	UPDF 0-2 BUL
15 Oct	URA 0-0 Entebbe UPPC
15 Oct	Express 1-2 UPDF
15 Oct	Kataka 0-5 Vipers