Mgarr United vs Zurrieq• Challenge League, Malta

#31.8:1.018:30Tomorrow0.8:1.0#12

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.88BTNX3.65DAF23.801XBMargin at best6.9%Books6Markets40Rating52 · 48 levelExp. goals L52.3

Price board · 1X2captured 24 Oct 00:16 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	1.88	3.65	3.65	8.0%
Betfair	1.80	3.60	3.75	10.0%
Betano	1.88	3.45	3.50	10.7%
1xBet	1.78	3.52	3.80	10.9%
Bet365	1.80	3.60	3.60	11.1%
Marathonbet	1.76	3.52	3.70	12.3%
Best of all books	1.88	3.65	3.80	6.9%
Average	1.82	3.56	3.67	10.4%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Mgarr UnitedZurrieq

Last 10#3Table position#122.25Points per game1.009Form pts · last 571.8Goals for · last 50.81.0Goals against · last 51.070Attack rating3050Defence rating5069Form rating3120H2H rating8068Goals model3252Overall rating48

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 24 Oct 00:02 UTC

Mgarr United

4W 3D 3L · goals 15:14 · per match 1.5 for, 1.4 against

17 Oct	A	St. Andrews	2-0	W
10 Oct	H	Vittoriosa Stars	2-0	W
19 Sep	A	Melita	2-1	W
13 Sep	H	Tarxien Rainbows	1-3	L
18 Apr	A	Zurrieq	2-4	L
12 Apr	H	Gudja United	0-2	L
6 Apr	H	Santa Lucía	1-1	D
15 Mar	H	Vittoriosa Stars	1-1	D
8 Mar	A	Zebbug Rangers	2-0	W
4 Mar	H	Melita	2-2	D

Zurrieq

4W 2D 4L · goals 15:15 · per match 1.5 for, 1.5 against

17 Oct	H	Gudja United	1-0	W
11 Oct	A	Santa Lucía	1-1	D
19 Sep	H	Victoria Hotspurs	1-2	L
12 Sep	A	Sirens	0-1	L
18 Apr	H	Mgarr United	4-2	W
12 Apr	A	Santa Lucía	0-3	L
1 Apr	H	Marsa	2-1	W
15 Mar	H	Zebbug Rangers	3-3	D
7 Mar	A	Mtarfa	2-0	W
4 Mar	H	Naxxar Lions	1-2	L

Head to head

0Mgarr United wins

2draws

2Zurrieq wins

4 meetings · goals 4:8 · last 4: 0W 2D 2L for Mgarr United

18 Apr 2026Challenge League	Challenge League	Zurrieq4-2Mgarr United
1 Feb 2026Challenge League	Challenge League	Zurrieq1-1Mgarr United
5 Apr 2025Challenge League	Challenge League	Mgarr United0-2Zurrieq
9 Feb 2025Challenge League	Challenge League	Zurrieq1-1Mgarr United

Challenge League tableFirst Divisionupdated 23 Oct 21:50 UTC

In the Challenge League table, Mgarr United sit 3rd with 9 points from 4 games, while Zurrieq are 12th with 4 points from 4.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Tarxien Rainbows	4	4	0	0	11:4	+7	12
2	Naxxar Lions	4	3	0	1	9:6	+3	9
3	Mgarr United	4	3	0	1	7:4	+3	9
4	Fgura United	4	2	2	0	8:1	+7	8
5	Swieqi United	4	2	1	1	9:8	+1	7
6	Melita	5	2	1	2	6:5	+1	7
7	Pietà Hotspurs	4	2	0	2	8:8	0	6
8	Victoria Hotspurs	4	2	0	2	5:5	0	6
9	Vittoriosa Stars	4	1	2	1	4:4	0	5
10	Santa Lucía	4	0	4	0	2:2	0	4
11	Sirens	4	1	1	2	6:7	-1	4
12	Zurrieq	4	1	1	2	3:4	-1	4
13	St. Andrews	4	1	1	2	2:6	-4	4
14	Attard	4	0	3	1	6:8	-2	3
15	Zebbug Rangers	5	1	0	4	4:11	-7	3
16	Gudja United	4	0	0	4	0:7	-7	0

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg150%1.82X25%3.56225%3.67

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 6.9% margin.

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.80	2.00	5.6%
1xBet	1.75	1.93	9.0%
Marathonbet	1.75	1.93	9.0%
Betano	1.72	1.93	10.0%
Best of all books	1.80	2.00	5.6%
Average	1.75	1.95	8.3%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	1.65	2.10	8.2%
1xBet	1.66	2.05	9.0%
Marathonbet	1.66	2.01	10.0%
Best of all books	1.66	2.10	7.9%
Average	1.66	2.05	9.1%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Mgarr United 45%Draw 45%Zurrieq 10%

The statistical model rates Mgarr United at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Zurrieq at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.82 | 3.56 | 3.67, which imply roughly 54.9% for a Mgarr United win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Challenge League table: Mgarr United are 3rd (9 pts, 7-4 goals), Zurrieq 12th (4 pts, 3-4).

Over their last five matches, Mgarr United averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1 conceded per game; Zurrieq averaged 0.8 scored and 1 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Mgarr United or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.82	3.56	3.67

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.21	1.82	1.23

Draw no bet

1	2
1.41	2.65

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.66	2.05

1st half

1	X	2
2.39	2.18	4.17

2nd half

1	X	2
2.16	2.54	3.80

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	2.92	15.3	34.5
HT X	4.85	5.65	7.90
HT 2	23.0	15.8	6.00

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.60	12.1	2.42

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	1.20	3.72
2.5	1.76	1.95
3.5	2.88	1.32
4.5	5.50	1.08

9 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.01	8.50
1.75	1.25	3.28
2	1.32	2.88
2.25	1.53	2.26
2.75	1.92	1.72
3	2.28	1.50
3.25	2.57	1.40
3.75	3.50	1.22
4	4.75	1.12

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.25	2.83	1.33
-1	2.50	1.44
-0.75	2.00	1.65
-0.5	1.84	1.88
-0.25	1.55	2.17
0	1.34	2.78

7 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	6.75	1.04
-2	5.90	1.07
-1.75	4.05	1.16
-1.5	3.20	1.26
+0.25	1.26	3.20
+1	1.02	7.80
+1.5	1.01	8.90

Next Challenge League matches

24 Oct	Gudja United – Fgura United
24 Oct	Sirens – Tarxien Rainbows
24 Oct	Santa Lucía – Naxxar Lions
25 Oct	Victoria Hotspurs – Swieqi United
25 Oct	Pietà Hotspurs – Vittoriosa Stars

All Challenge League fixtures and the table

Latest Challenge League results

23 Oct	Attard 0-1 St. Andrews
23 Oct	Zebbug Rangers 1-2 Melita
18 Oct	Swieqi United 3-2 Sirens
18 Oct	Tarxien Rainbows 2-1 Zebbug Rangers
18 Oct	Vittoriosa Stars 2-2 Attard
18 Oct	Naxxar Lions 1-0 Victoria Hotspurs