Santa Lucía vs Naxxar Lions• Challenge League, Malta

#100.5:0.517:00Today2.3:1.5#2

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

13.75DAFX3.60B36521.891XBMargin at best7.4%Books6Markets37Rating48 · 52 levelExp. goals L52.4

Price board · 1X2captured 23 Oct 23:32 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	3.75	3.60	1.88	7.6%
Betfair	3.60	3.60	1.85	9.6%
1xBet	3.42	3.48	1.89	10.9%
Bet365	3.40	3.60	1.85	11.2%
Betano	3.60	3.40	1.85	11.2%
Marathonbet	3.34	3.48	1.87	12.2%
Best of all books	3.75	3.60	1.89	7.4%
Average	3.52	3.53	1.87	10.4%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Santa LucíaNaxxar Lions

Last 10#10Table position#21.00Points per game2.257Form pts · last 590.5Goals for · last 52.30.5Goals against · last 51.518Attack rating8275Defence rating2531Form rating6964H2H rating3652Goals model4848Overall rating52

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 23 Oct 17:31 UTC

Santa Lucía

3W 6D 1L · goals 14:7 · per match 1.4 for, 0.7 against

17 Oct	A	Fgura United	0-0	D
11 Oct	H	Zurrieq	1-1	D
18 Sep	A	St. Andrews	1-1	D
12 Sep	H	Vittoriosa Stars	0-0	D
19 Apr	A	Mtarfa	5-1	W
12 Apr	H	Zurrieq	3-0	W
6 Apr	A	Mgarr United	1-1	D
14 Mar	H	Marsa	0-1	L
8 Mar	A	Vittoriosa Stars	1-1	D
28 Feb	H	Gudja United	2-1	W

Naxxar Lions

3W 2D 5L · goals 12:15 · per match 1.2 for, 1.5 against

18 Oct	H	Victoria Hotspurs	1-0	W
10 Oct	A	Sirens	3-2	W
20 Sep	H	Zebbug Rangers	3-1	W
12 Sep	A	Pietà Hotspurs	2-3	L
10 May	H	Mosta	0-1	L
2 May	A	Marsaxlokk	2-3	L
26 Apr	A	Gzira United	0-0	D
19 Apr	A	Hamrun Spartans	0-3	L
15 Apr	H	Valletta FC	1-1	D
11 Apr	H	Floriana	0-1	L

Head to head

2Santa Lucía wins

1draws

1Naxxar Lions wins

4 meetings · goals 7:7 · last 4: 2W 1D 1L for Santa Lucía

17 Feb 2024Premier League	Premier League	Santa Lucía1-0Naxxar Lions
1 Oct 2023Premier League	Premier League	Naxxar Lions4-0Santa Lucía
17 Feb 2019Challenge League	Challenge League	Naxxar Lions2-2Santa Lucía
30 Sep 2018Challenge League	Challenge League	Santa Lucía4-1Naxxar Lions

Challenge League tableFirst Divisionupdated 23 Oct 21:50 UTC

In the Challenge League table, Santa Lucía sit 10th with 4 points from 4 games, while Naxxar Lions are 2nd with 9 points from 4.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Tarxien Rainbows	4	4	0	0	11:4	+7	12
2	Naxxar Lions	4	3	0	1	9:6	+3	9
3	Mgarr United	4	3	0	1	7:4	+3	9
4	Fgura United	4	2	2	0	8:1	+7	8
5	Swieqi United	4	2	1	1	9:8	+1	7
6	Melita	5	2	1	2	6:5	+1	7
7	Pietà Hotspurs	4	2	0	2	8:8	0	6
8	Victoria Hotspurs	4	2	0	2	5:5	0	6
9	Vittoriosa Stars	4	1	2	1	4:4	0	5
10	Santa Lucía	4	0	4	0	2:2	0	4
11	Sirens	4	1	1	2	6:7	-1	4
12	Zurrieq	4	1	1	2	3:4	-1	4
13	St. Andrews	4	1	1	2	2:6	-4	4
14	Attard	4	0	3	1	6:8	-2	3
15	Zebbug Rangers	5	1	0	4	4:11	-7	3
16	Gudja United	4	0	0	4	0:7	-7	0

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg126%3.50X26%3.51248%1.87

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 7.4% margin.

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.73	2.08	5.9%
1xBet	1.69	2.01	8.9%
Marathonbet	1.69	2.01	8.9%
Betano	1.67	1.98	10.4%
Best of all books	1.73	2.08	5.9%
Average	1.69	2.02	8.5%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
1xBet	1.60	2.15	9.0%
Marathonbet	1.60	2.11	9.9%
Best of all books	1.60	2.15	9.0%
Average	1.60	2.13	9.4%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Santa Lucía 35%Draw 35%Naxxar Lions 30%

The statistical model rates Santa Lucía at 35% to win, the draw at 35% and Naxxar Lions at 30% — against average 1X2 odds of 3.50 | 3.51 | 1.87, which imply roughly 28.6% for a Santa Lucía win versus the model's 35%.

Form context from the Challenge League table: Santa Lucía are 10th (4 pts, 2-2 goals), Naxxar Lions 2nd (9 pts, 9-6).

Over their last five matches, Santa Lucía averaged 0.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game; Naxxar Lions averaged 2.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Santa Lucía or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
3.52	3.53	1.87

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.77	1.24	1.23

Draw no bet

1	2
2.62	1.42

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.60	2.13

1st half

1	X	2
3.94	2.22	2.44

2nd half

1	X	2
3.57	2.56	2.21

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	5.85	15.3	22.5
HT X	8.00	5.95	4.83
HT 2	32.0	14.3	2.96

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.29	13.5	1.64

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	1.19	3.78
2.5	1.69	2.02
3.5	2.66	1.37

9 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	–	9.10
1.75	1.24	3.34
2	1.30	2.97
2.25	1.49	2.34
2.75	1.84	1.80
3	2.13	1.57
3.25	2.42	1.45
3.75	3.14	1.27
4	4.15	1.16

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.25	2.84	1.33
0	2.53	1.43
+0.25	2.03	1.65
+0.5	1.84	1.87
+0.75	1.59	2.13
+1	1.38	2.62

7 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	6.85	1.04
-1	6.05	1.06
-0.75	4.10	1.16
+1.25	1.30	2.97
+1.5	1.25	3.28
+2	1.07	5.85
+2.5	1.05	6.55

Next Challenge League matches

24 Oct	Gudja United – Fgura United
24 Oct	Sirens – Tarxien Rainbows
25 Oct	Victoria Hotspurs – Swieqi United
25 Oct	Pietà Hotspurs – Vittoriosa Stars
25 Oct	Mgarr United – Zurrieq

All Challenge League fixtures and the table

Latest Challenge League results

23 Oct	Attard 0-1 St. Andrews
23 Oct	Zebbug Rangers 1-2 Melita
18 Oct	Swieqi United 3-2 Sirens
18 Oct	Tarxien Rainbows 2-1 Zebbug Rangers
18 Oct	Vittoriosa Stars 2-2 Attard
18 Oct	Naxxar Lions 1-0 Victoria Hotspurs