Pavia vs USD Casatese• Serie D - Girone D, Italy

#120.8:1.213:30Tomorrow1.8:1.6#6

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.60B365X3.18MAR22.62BTNMargin at best8.1%Books6Markets37Rating33 · 68Exp. goals L52.7

Price board · 1X2captured 24 Oct 16:16 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	2.60	3.05	2.60	9.7%
Betano	2.55	3.00	2.60	11.0%
Bet365	2.60	3.10	2.45	11.5%
1xBet	2.54	3.15	2.43	12.3%
Marathonbet	2.54	3.15	2.43	12.3%
BetVictor	2.40	2.88	2.30	19.9%
Best of all books	2.60	3.15	2.60	8.7%
Average	2.54	3.06	2.47	12.6%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

PaviaUSD Casatese

Last 10#12Table position#61.00Points per game1.632Form pts · last 590.8Goals for · last 51.81.2Goals against · last 51.631Attack rating6957Defence rating4325Form rating7520H2H rating8019Goals model8133Overall rating68

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 23 Oct 06:02 UTC

Pavia

1W 5D 4L · goals 8:13 · per match 0.8 for, 1.3 against

18 Oct	A	Pistoiese	0-1	L
11 Oct	H	Varesina	2-2	D
7 Oct	H	Sant'Angelo	1-3	L
4 Oct	A	Correggese	1-2	L
27 Sep	H	Arconatese	1-1	D
20 Sep	A	Sant'Angelo	0-0	D
16 Sep	H	Solbiatese	0-0	D
12 Sep	A	Oltrepò	3-0	W
6 Sep	H	Crema	0-0	D
25 Jul	H	Albinoleffe	0-4	L

USD Casatese

5W 1D 4L · goals 18:14 · per match 1.8 for, 1.4 against

18 Oct	H	Pro Patria	1-2	L
11 Oct	A	Cittadella Vis Modena	1-0	W
4 Oct	H	Pistoiese	0-3	L
27 Sep	H	Varesina	4-2	W
20 Sep	A	Correggese	3-1	W
16 Sep	H	Sant'Angelo	1-2	L
12 Sep	A	Solbiatese	0-0	D
6 Sep	H	Arconatese	2-1	W
17 May	H	Chievo	2-3	L
10 May	H	Leon	4-0	W

Head to head

0Pavia wins

1draws

1USD Casatese wins

2 meetings · goals 3:4 · last 2: 0W 1D 1L for Pavia

19 Apr 2026Serie D - Girone B	Serie D - Girone B	USD Casatese1-0Pavia
7 Dec 2025Serie D - Girone B	Serie D - Girone B	Pavia3-3USD Casatese

Serie D - Girone D tableSerie D: Group Dupdated 24 Oct 06:10 UTC

In the Serie D - Girone D table, Pavia sit 12th with 8 points from 8 games, while USD Casatese are 6th with 13 points from 8.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Pistoiese	8	8	0	0	19:1	+18	24
2	Pro Patria	8	6	1	1	13:5	+8	19
3	Castellanzese	8	6	0	2	16:5	+11	18
4	Lentigione	8	5	2	1	13:8	+5	17
5	Pro Sesto	8	4	3	1	18:6	+12	15
6	USD Casatese	8	4	1	3	12:11	+1	13
7	Città di Varese	8	3	3	2	14:8	+6	12
8	Cittadella Vis Modena	8	3	2	3	7:5	+2	11
9	Sant'Angelo	8	3	2	3	9:8	+1	11
10	Solbiatese	8	2	4	2	7:10	-3	10
11	Correggese	8	3	1	4	7:12	-5	10
12	Pavia	8	1	5	2	7:6	+1	8
13	Crema	8	2	2	4	8:15	-7	8
14	Varesina	8	1	4	3	9:12	-3	7
15	Coriano	8	1	2	5	5:10	-5	5
16	Oltrepò	8	1	1	6	4:16	-12	4
17	Arconatese	8	0	3	5	5:19	-14	3
18	Pontedera	8	1	0	7	6:22	-16	3

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg135%2.57X29%3.07236%2.44

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 8.1% margin.

1X2 since open average price

12.87 → 2.57 -10.5%X3.03 → 3.07 +1.3%22.36 → 2.44 +3.4%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	2.00	1.80	5.6%
1xBet	1.99	1.70	9.1%
Marathonbet	1.99	1.70	9.1%
Betano	2.07	1.62	10.0%
BetVictor	1.75	1.59	20.0%
Best of all books	2.07	1.80	3.9%
Average	1.96	1.68	10.5%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
1xBet	1.75	1.93	9.0%
Marathonbet	1.75	1.90	9.8%
BetVictor	1.60	1.75	19.6%
Best of all books	1.75	1.93	9.0%
Average	1.70	1.86	12.6%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Pavia 10%Draw 45%USD Casatese 45%

The statistical model rates Pavia at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and USD Casatese at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.57 | 3.07 | 2.44, which imply roughly 32.6% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Serie D - Girone D table: Pavia are 12th (8 pts, 7-6 goals), USD Casatese 6th (13 pts, 12-11).

Over their last five matches, Pavia averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game; USD Casatese averaged 1.8 scored and 1.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or USD Casatese.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.54	3.06	2.47

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.42	1.40	1.24

Draw no bet

1	2
1.80	1.76

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.70	1.86

1st half

1	X	2
3.19	2.00	3.07

2nd half

1	X	2
2.92	2.32	2.85

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	4.31	14.0	28.0
HT X	6.10	4.90	6.00
HT 2	29.7	14.7	4.10

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.03	9.15	1.94

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.03	4.50
1.5	1.27	2.88
2.5	1.96	1.68
3.5	3.25	1.21
4.5	5.53	1.06

10 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.02	7.70
1.25	1.15	4.20
1.75	1.35	2.54
2	1.50	2.19
2.25	1.69	1.85
2.75	2.16	1.50
3	2.64	1.33
3.25	3.14	1.27
3.75	4.30	1.15
4	6.40	1.05

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.5	2.23	1.33
-0.25	2.11	1.52
0	1.86	1.76
+0.25	1.57	2.03
+0.5	1.37	2.13
+0.75	1.30	2.98

6 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	5.65	1.08
-1	4.60	1.13
-0.75	3.14	1.27
+1	1.15	4.30
+1.25	1.11	4.80
+1.5	1.09	5.30

Next Serie D - Girone D matches

25 Oct	Lentigione – Crema
25 Oct	Pro Sesto – Sant'Angelo
25 Oct	Coriano – Arconatese
25 Oct	Castellanzese – Varesina
25 Oct	Cittadella Vis Modena – Pistoiese
25 Oct	Pro Patria – Correggese

All Serie D - Girone D fixtures and the table

Latest Serie D - Girone D results

14 Oct	Coriano 1-2 Pontedera
4 Oct	Correggese 2-1 Pavia
4 Oct	Varesina 0-0 Pro Patria
4 Oct	Sant'Angelo 1-2 Castellanzese
4 Oct	Oltrepò 1-2 Lentigione
4 Oct	Arconatese 1-1 Pro Sesto