Varesina vs Pro Patria• Serie D - Girone D, Italy

#141.4:2.00-0FT04/102.0:0.8#2

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

14.40BTNX4.011XB21.761XBMargin at best4.5%Books2Markets16Rating30 · 71Exp. goals L53.1

Price board · 1X2captured 2 Oct 00:30 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
1xBet	4.80	4.14	1.67	4.9%
Betano	4.40	3.50	1.67	11.2%
Best of all books	4.80	4.14	1.67	4.9%
Average	4.60	3.82	1.67	7.8%

Best price per column is highlighted. These prices were captured 2 days before kickoff and were not refreshed later; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

VaresinaPro Patria

Last 10#14Table position#20.88Points per game2.383Form pts · last 5101.4Goals for · last 52.02.0Goals against · last 50.841Attack rating5929Defence rating7125Form rating750H2H rating10023Goals model7730Overall rating71

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 23 Oct 06:02 UTC

Varesina

2W 5D 3L · goals 13:15 · per match 1.3 for, 1.5 against

18 Oct	H	Pro Sesto	0-0	D
11 Oct	A	Pavia	2-2	D
4 Oct	H	Pro Patria	0-0	D
27 Sep	A	USD Casatese	2-4	L
20 Sep	H	Pistoiese	0-1	L
16 Sep	A	Correggese	1-2	L
13 Sep	A	Sant'Angelo	1-1	D
6 Sep	H	Cittadella Vis Modena	3-2	W
10 May	A	Castellanzese	2-1	W
3 May	A	Caldiero Terme	2-2	D

Pro Patria

8W 1D 1L · goals 21:8 · per match 2.1 for, 0.8 against

18 Oct	A	USD Casatese	2-1	W
11 Oct	H	Sant'Angelo	1-0	W
7 Oct	A	Città di Varese	5-2	W
4 Oct	A	Varesina	0-0	D
27 Sep	H	Solbiatese	0-1	L
20 Sep	A	Arconatese	3-0	W
16 Sep	H	Crema	2-0	W
12 Sep	A	Pontedera	3-2	W
6 Sep	H	Oltrepò	2-1	W
12 Aug	H	Gozzano	3-1	W

Head to head

0Varesina wins

0draws

1Pro Patria wins

1 meeting · goals 0:2 · last 1: 0W 0D 1L for Varesina

5 Aug 2023Friendlies Clubs

Friendlies Clubs

Varesina0-2Pro Patria

Serie D - Girone D tableSerie D: Group Dupdated 24 Oct 06:10 UTC

In the Serie D - Girone D table, Varesina sit 14th with 7 points from 8 games, while Pro Patria are 2nd with 19 points from 8.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Pistoiese	8	8	0	0	19:1	+18	24
2	Pro Patria	8	6	1	1	13:5	+8	19
3	Castellanzese	8	6	0	2	16:5	+11	18
4	Lentigione	8	5	2	1	13:8	+5	17
5	Pro Sesto	8	4	3	1	18:6	+12	15
6	USD Casatese	8	4	1	3	12:11	+1	13
7	Città di Varese	8	3	3	2	14:8	+6	12
8	Cittadella Vis Modena	8	3	2	3	7:5	+2	11
9	Sant'Angelo	8	3	2	3	9:8	+1	11
10	Solbiatese	8	2	4	2	7:10	-3	10
11	Correggese	8	3	1	4	7:12	-5	10
12	Pavia	8	1	5	2	7:6	+1	8
13	Crema	8	2	2	4	8:15	-7	8
14	Varesina	8	1	4	3	9:12	-3	7
15	Coriano	8	1	2	5	5:10	-5	5
16	Oltrepò	8	1	1	6	4:16	-12	4
17	Arconatese	8	0	3	5	5:19	-14	3
18	Pontedera	8	1	0	7	6:22	-16	3

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg122%4.08X26%3.50252%1.71

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 4.5% margin.

1X2 since open average price

14.60 → 4.08 -11.3%X3.82 → 3.51 -8.1%21.67 → 1.70 +1.8%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
1xBet	1.85	1.96	5.1%
Betano	1.75	1.90	9.8%
Best of all books	1.85	1.96	5.1%
Average	1.80	1.93	7.4%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
1xBet	1.87	1.93	5.3%
Best of all books	1.87	1.93	5.3%
Average	1.87	1.93	5.3%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Varesina 0%Draw 50%Pro Patria 50%

The statistical model rated Varesina at 0% to win, the draw at 50% and Pro Patria at 50% — against average 1X2 odds of 4.08 | 3.50 | 1.71, which imply roughly 28.6% for the draw versus the model's 50%.

Form context from the Serie D - Girone D table: Varesina are 14th (7 pts, 9-12 goals), Pro Patria 2nd (19 pts, 13-5).

Over their last five matches, Varesina averaged 1.4 goals scored and 2 conceded per game; Pro Patria averaged 2 scored and 0.8 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Pro Patria.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
4.60	3.82	1.67

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.98	1.18	1.24

Draw no bet

1	2
3.10	1.27

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.87	1.93

1st half

1	X	2
4.60	2.15	2.25

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	1.26	3.55
2.5	1.80	1.93
3.5	2.96	1.37
4.5	5.69	1.09

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
0	3.30	1.27
+0.5	1.78	1.83
+0.75	1.80	1.80
+1.5	1.38	2.66

Next Serie D - Girone D matches

25 Oct	Pro Sesto – Sant'Angelo
25 Oct	Coriano – Arconatese
25 Oct	Castellanzese – Varesina
25 Oct	Cittadella Vis Modena – Pistoiese
25 Oct	Lentigione – Crema
25 Oct	Pavia – USD Casatese

All Serie D - Girone D fixtures and the table

Latest Serie D - Girone D results

14 Oct	Coriano 1-2 Pontedera
4 Oct	Correggese 2-1 Pavia
4 Oct	Sant'Angelo 1-2 Castellanzese
4 Oct	Oltrepò 1-2 Lentigione
4 Oct	Arconatese 1-1 Pro Sesto
4 Oct	USD Casatese 0-3 Pistoiese