Varzim vs Fafe• Liga 3, Portugal

#80.8:2.215:00Today1.8:1.0#4

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.63PINX3.25DAF22.70PINMargin at best5.8%Books8Markets40Rating30 · 70Exp. goals L52.9

Price board · 1X2captured 8 Nov 06:18 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	2.61	3.18	2.68	7.1%
Dafabet	2.50	3.30	2.65	8.0%
Betano	2.55	3.15	2.65	8.7%
Bet365	2.50	3.10	2.55	11.5%
Betfair	2.50	3.10	2.55	11.5%
1xBet	2.42	3.02	2.65	12.2%
Marathonbet	2.42	3.02	2.65	12.2%
William Hill	2.50	2.90	2.62	12.7%
Best of all books	2.61	3.30	2.68	5.9%
Average	2.50	3.10	2.63	10.4%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

VarzimFafe

Last 10#8Table position#41.13Points per game1.630Form pts · last 580.8Goals for · last 51.82.2Goals against · last 51.031Attack rating6931Defence rating690Form rating10029H2H rating7118Goals model8230Overall rating70

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 6 Nov 00:01 UTC

Varzim

4W 0D 6L · goals 17:16 · per match 1.7 for, 1.6 against

31 Oct	A	Leça	0-2	L
25 Oct	H	Guimaraes B	2-4	L
11 Oct	A	São João Ver	1-2	L
19 Sep	A	Vitória de Sernache	1-2	L
12 Sep	H	Vianense	1-2	L
5 Sep	H	Paredes	0-1	L
29 Aug	H	Trofense	5-1	W
22 Aug	A	Pacos Ferreira	4-1	W
16 Aug	H	AD Marco 09	2-1	W
9 Aug	A	Trofense	1-0	W

Fafe

5W 3D 2L · goals 18:8 · per match 1.8 for, 0.8 against

30 Oct	H	Pacos Ferreira	3-1	W
25 Oct	A	AD Marco 09	0-0	D
18 Oct	A	Felgueiras 1932	0-1	L
11 Oct	H	Trofense	2-2	D
20 Sep	H	Lajense	4-0	W
13 Sep	A	Paredes	1-2	L
6 Sep	A	Leça	3-0	W
29 Aug	A	Pacos Ferreira	1-0	W
21 Aug	H	Guimaraes B	1-1	D
16 Aug	A	São João Ver	3-1	W

Head to head

5Varzim wins

3draws

6Fafe wins

14 meetings · goals 14:16 · last 10: 2W 3D 5L for Varzim

4 Jan 2026Liga 3	Liga 3	Fafe1-0Varzim
28 Sep 2025Liga 3	Liga 3	Varzim1-1Fafe
17 May 2025Liga 3	Liga 3	Varzim5-3Fafe
29 Mar 2025Liga 3	Liga 3	Fafe1-0Varzim
9 Nov 2024Liga 3	Liga 3	Fafe2-0Varzim
10 Aug 2024Liga 3	Liga 3	Varzim0-2Fafe
3 Dec 2023Liga 3	Liga 3	Varzim0-1Fafe
20 Aug 2023Liga 3	Liga 3	Fafe0-0Varzim
6 May 2023Liga 3	Liga 3	Varzim1-0Fafe
15 Apr 2023Liga 3	Liga 3	Fafe2-2Varzim

Liga 3 tableLiga 3updated 8 Nov 00:12 UTC

In the Liga 3 table, Varzim sit 8th with 9 points from 8 games, while Fafe are 4th with 13 points from 8.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Paredes	9	7	1	1	20:9	+11	22
1	CF Os Belenenses	9	6	3	0	18:6	+12	21
2	Leça	9	4	2	3	11:9	+2	14
2	Atlético CP	8	5	2	1	17:7	+10	17
3	AD Marco 09	9	4	2	3	9:8	+1	14
3	Oliveirense	9	3	4	2	11:11	0	13
4	Fafe	8	3	4	1	13:7	+6	13
4	União Santarém	9	4	1	4	11:15	-4	13
5	Guimaraes B	9	3	3	3	12:10	+2	12
5	Mafra	9	3	3	3	17:13	+4	12
6	Vianense	9	2	5	2	12:13	-1	11
6	Caldas	9	3	2	4	10:13	-3	11
7	São João Ver	9	2	3	4	9:12	-3	9
7	Louletano	8	2	2	4	10:12	-2	8
8	Varzim	8	3	0	5	11:13	-2	9
8	Vitória de Sernache	8	2	1	5	6:15	-9	7
9	Pacos Ferreira	8	2	2	4	8:13	-5	8
9	SC Covilha	8	1	4	3	5:8	-3	7
10	Trofense	8	1	2	5	4:15	-11	5
10	Lusitano Évora 1911	9	1	4	4	6:11	-5	7

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg136%2.51X29%3.08234%2.63

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 5.8% margin.

1X2 since open average price

13.10 → 2.51 -19.0%X3.11 → 3.08 -1.0%22.17 → 2.63 +21.2%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	2.08	1.73	5.9%
Pinnacle	2.09	1.72	6.0%
Betano	2.05	1.70	7.6%
1xBet	2.10	1.63	9.0%
Marathonbet	2.10	1.63	9.0%
Best of all books	2.10	1.73	5.4%
Average	2.08	1.68	7.4%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	1.80	1.95	6.8%
Betano	1.80	1.88	8.7%
1xBet	1.81	1.86	9.0%
William Hill	1.80	1.85	9.6%
Marathonbet	1.81	1.83	9.9%
Best of all books	1.81	1.95	6.5%
Average	1.80	1.87	8.8%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Varzim 10%Draw 45%Fafe 45%

The statistical model rates Varzim at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Fafe at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.51 | 3.08 | 2.63, which imply roughly 32.5% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Liga 3 table: Varzim are 8th (9 pts, 11-13 goals), Fafe 4th (13 pts, 13-7).

Over their last five matches, Varzim averaged 0.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game; Fafe averaged 1.8 scored and 1 conceded.

Statistical advice: Winner : Fafe.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.50	3.10	2.63

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.41	1.44	1.30

Draw no bet

1	2
1.82	1.85

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.80	1.87

1st half

1	X	2
3.17	2.02	3.29

2nd half

1	X	2
2.83	2.29	3.01

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	3.98	14.8	31.0
HT X	5.83	4.63	6.27
HT 2	28.7	15.5	4.48

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.97	8.15	2.05

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.06	7.03
1.5	1.33	2.94
2.5	2.08	1.68
3.5	3.67	1.21
4.5	6.65	1.09
5.5	17.0	1.02

9 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.04	6.75
1.25	1.18	3.88
1.75	1.41	2.60
2	1.55	2.24
2.25	1.82	1.87
2.75	2.42	1.48
3	3.03	1.31
3.25	3.42	1.23
4	7.10	1.04

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.75	3.03	1.31
-0.5	2.55	1.48
-0.25	2.11	1.66
0	1.81	1.93
+0.25	1.64	2.18
+0.5	1.55	2.38

9 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	10.0	1.01
-1.5	5.30	1.09
-1.25	4.80	1.11
-1	4.22	1.17
+0.75	1.27	3.26
+1	1.17	4.46
+1.25	1.12	4.70
+1.5	1.06	6.00
+2.5	1.02	9.20

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
8.5	1.74	2.01
9	1.98	1.82

Next Liga 3 matches

8 Nov

Pacos Ferreira – Trofense

All Liga 3 fixtures and the table

Latest Liga 3 results

7 Nov	AD Marco 09 1-3 Paredes
7 Nov	Vianense 0-0 Leça
7 Nov	São João Ver 0-2 Guimaraes B
7 Nov	Caldas 0-1 Oliveirense
6 Nov	CF Os Belenenses 0-0 Lusitano Évora 1911
6 Nov	União Santarém 2-1 Mafra