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Chaves vs Penafiel• Segunda Liga, Portugal

#151.0:1.814:00Tomorrow · Estadio Municipal de Chaves, Chaves2.4:1.0#2

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.50PINX3.30PIN22.90BTNMargin at best4.8%Books6Markets71Rating39 · 62Exp. goals L53.1

Price board · 1X2captured 6 Nov 08:16 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
Pinnacle2.483.342.815.8%
1xBet2.413.222.837.9%
Marathonbet2.393.222.808.6%
BetVictor2.403.202.759.3%
Bet3652.503.102.709.3%
William Hill2.403.002.7511.4%
Best of all books2.503.342.835.3%
Average2.433.182.778.7%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

ChavesPenafiel
Last 10#15Table position#20.89Points per game2.117Form pts · last 571.0Goals for · last 52.41.8Goals against · last 51.029Attack rating7136Defence rating6437Form rating6350H2H rating5022Goals model7839Overall rating62

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 4 Nov 06:01 UTC

Chaves

4W 2D 4L · goals 13:17 · per match 1.3 for, 1.7 against

31 OctABenfica B1-3L
23 OctHVizela2-1W
16 OctHOs Marialvas2-1W
11 OctALusitânia Lourosa1-1D
4 OctAFarense0-4L
25 SepHVitória SC0-1L
20 SepAGuarda3-2W
13 SepHFeirense1-0W
30 AugAFelgueiras 19321-2L
23 AugHAVS2-2D

Penafiel

7W 1D 2L · goals 21:9 · per match 2.1 for, 0.9 against

2 NovHFeirense1-0W
24 OctAFarense4-1W
17 OctHLeça0-1L
9 OctHAVS1-2L
25 SepHDeportivo La Coruna2-2D
19 SepAOliveirense2-1W
12 SepAFelgueiras 19322-1W
5 SepHAcademica4-1W
30 AugAFC Porto B3-0W
23 AugHSporting CP B2-0W

Head to head

5Chaves wins
2draws
4Penafiel wins

11 meetings · goals 12:9 · last 10: 4W 2D 4L for Chaves

6 Feb 2026Segunda LigaSegunda LigaChaves0-1Penafiel
30 Aug 2025Segunda LigaSegunda LigaPenafiel0-2Chaves
15 May 2025Segunda LigaSegunda LigaPenafiel0-0Chaves
4 Jan 2025Segunda LigaSegunda LigaChaves0-1Penafiel
18 Jul 2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies ClubsPenafiel1-2Chaves
6 Mar 2022Segunda LigaSegunda LigaPenafiel2-1Chaves
10 Oct 2021Segunda LigaSegunda LigaChaves3-1Penafiel
29 Mar 2021Segunda LigaSegunda LigaChaves2-1Penafiel
9 Nov 2020Segunda LigaSegunda LigaPenafiel1-0Chaves
17 Feb 2020Segunda LigaSegunda LigaPenafiel0-0Chaves

Segunda Liga tableDivision2updated 6 Nov 00:31 UTC

In the Segunda Liga table, Chaves sit 15th with 8 points from 9 games, while Penafiel are 2nd with 19 points from 9.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Sporting CP B970215:7+821
2Penafiel961219:8+1119
3Lusitânia Lourosa954015:8+719
4Benfica B952211:6+517
5Farense943215:11+415
6Academica950415:12+315
7Tondela950412:10+215
8Vizela942310:9+114
9União de Leiria942313:11+214
10AVS933311:10+112
11Portimonense93246:10-411
12Torreense92438:10-210
13Leixoes931510:14-410
14Amarante92258:12-48
15Chaves92259:18-98
16FC Porto B92258:17-98
17Felgueiras 193291449:12-37
18Feirense90272:11-92

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg138%2.42X29%3.17233%2.80

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 4.8% margin.

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
Pinnacle2.031.795.1%
Bet3652.051.755.9%
1xBet2.021.737.3%
Marathonbet2.021.737.3%
BetVictor1.971.728.9%
Best of all books2.051.794.6%
Average2.021.746.9%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Bet3651.801.917.9%
1xBet1.781.938.0%
BetVictor1.751.958.4%
William Hill1.751.958.4%
Marathonbet1.781.908.8%
Best of all books1.801.956.8%
Average1.771.938.3%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Chaves 10%Draw 45%Penafiel 45%

The statistical model rates Chaves at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Penafiel at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.42 | 3.17 | 2.80, which imply roughly 31.5% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Segunda Liga table: Chaves are 15th (8 pts, 9-18 goals), Penafiel 2nd (19 pts, 19-8).

Over their last five matches, Chaves averaged 1 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game; Penafiel averaged 2.4 scored and 1 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Winner : Penafiel and +1.5 goals (goal line signal: over 1.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
2.433.182.77

Double chance

1XX212
1.391.501.32

Draw no bet

12
1.761.97

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.771.93

1st half

1X2
3.082.073.47

2nd half

1X2
2.792.343.12

HT/FT

HT / FTFT 1FT XFT 2
HT 13.8714.833.0
HT X5.774.776.43
HT 231.714.84.53

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
1.929.002.09

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.059.13
1.51.303.16
2.52.021.74
3.53.531.25
4.57.601.05
5.515.51.02
6.534.0–
12 more lines
LineOverUnder
0.751.018.30
11.037.50
1.251.164.21
1.751.392.68
21.512.36
2.251.761.96
2.752.291.55
32.851.36
3.253.161.27
3.754.511.13
46.401.05
4.256.801.04

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-0.752.921.36
-0.52.421.52
-0.252.061.68
01.752.01
+0.251.532.37
+0.51.422.75
11 more lines
LineHomeAway
-2.510.01.01
-28.901.02
-1.756.671.07
-1.55.051.13
-1.254.471.16
-14.051.20
+0.751.273.42
+11.145.05
+1.251.105.58
+1.51.086.07
+1.751.018.30

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
5.51.075.65
6.51.233.48
7.51.472.42
8.51.841.84
9.52.381.49
10.53.261.25
11.54.801.11
18 more lines
LineOverUnder
5.751.075.29
61.095.02
6.251.163.98
6.751.273.18
71.302.99
7.251.412.60
7.751.582.22
81.662.08
8.251.781.93
8.752.011.71
92.171.60
9.252.311.53
9.752.691.38
103.041.29
10.253.221.26
10.753.881.17
114.641.11
11.254.851.10

Next Segunda Liga matches

6 NovAVS – Vizela
7 NovFelgueiras 1932 – Leixoes
7 NovAcademica – Amarante
8 NovFC Porto B – Portimonense
8 NovFeirense – Lusitânia Lourosa
8 NovFarense – Benfica B

All Segunda Liga fixtures and the table

Latest Segunda Liga results

2 NovPenafiel 1-0 Feirense
1 NovLusitânia Lourosa 1-1 Farense
1 NovTondela 3-2 Felgueiras 1932
1 NovVizela 2-1 Academica
31 OctUnião de Leiria 2-1 AVS
31 OctBenfica B 3-1 Chaves