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Estrela vs Casa Pia• Primeira Liga, Portugal

#101.4:1.80-2FT24/10 · Estadio Jose Gomes, Amadora0.6:1.4#16

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.811XBX3.85BTN25.08PINMargin at best0.9%Books9Markets81Rating56 · 44Exp. goals L52.6

Price board · 1X2captured 24 Oct 12:03 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
Betano1.803.854.752.6%
1xBet1.813.754.693.2%
Pinnacle1.773.784.843.6%
Dafabet1.763.754.903.9%
Betfair1.733.754.755.5%
Bet3651.753.504.756.8%
Marathonbet1.743.604.507.5%
William Hill1.753.504.507.9%
BetVictor1.703.504.509.6%
Best of all books1.813.854.901.6%
Average1.763.664.695.6%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

EstrelaCasa Pia
Last 10#10Table position#161.11Points per game0.787Form pts · last 571.4Goals for · last 50.61.8Goals against · last 51.470Attack rating3044Defence rating5656Form rating4440H2H rating6065Goals model3556Overall rating44

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 24 Oct 00:11 UTC

Estrela

4W 4D 2L · goals 20:18 · per match 2.0 for, 1.8 against

17 OctAFazendense2-1W
11 OctAArouca0-1L
20 SepHAcademico Viseu0-2L
14 SepARio Ave3-3D
10 SepHSC Braga2-1W
5 SepHFamalicao2-2D
30 AugANacional3-2W
15 AugAAlverca2-2D
8 AugHSporting CP2-2D
1 AugHAl-Nassr4-2W

Casa Pia

2W 1D 7L · goals 6:23 · per match 0.6 for, 2.3 against

18 OctAAlpendorada1-0W
10 OctHSanta Clara0-1L
20 SepAEstoril2-1W
12 SepHFC Porto1-4L
6 SepAVitória SC0-0D
30 AugHMoreirense0-1L
24 AugAGIL Vicente0-2L
17 AugHBenfica0-7L
8 AugAMaritimo0-1L
1 AugALeixoes2-6L

Head to head

5Estrela wins
1draws
4Casa Pia wins

10 meetings · goals 16:12 · last 10: 5W 1D 4L for Estrela

18 Jul 2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies ClubsEstrela1-2Casa Pia
20 Mar 2026Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaEstrela4-0Casa Pia
1 Nov 2025Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaCasa Pia3-5Estrela
9 Feb 2025Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaCasa Pia1-0Estrela
31 Aug 2024Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaEstrela0-1Casa Pia
8 Mar 2024Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaEstrela3-1Casa Pia
8 Oct 2023Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaCasa Pia0-1Estrela
15 Jul 2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies ClubsEstrela1-1Casa Pia
23 Apr 2022Segunda LigaSegunda LigaCasa Pia3-0Estrela
13 Dec 2021Segunda LigaSegunda LigaEstrela1-0Casa Pia

Primeira Liga tablePrimeira Ligaupdated 24 Oct 23:00 UTC

In the Primeira Liga table, Estrela sit 10th with 10 points from 9 games, while Casa Pia are 16th with 7 points from 9.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1FC Porto990021:4+1727
2Benfica861124:7+1719
3Sporting CP853020:9+1118
4Santa Clara853012:4+818
5Arouca952212:7+517
6Academico Viseu842211:10+114
7GIL Vicente94238:7+114
8Alverca932413:13011
9SC Braga83239:10-111
10Estrela924314:17-310
11Vitória SC922510:1008
12Moreirense82248:15-78
13Maritimo92259:19-108
14Famalicao814310:11-17
15Rio Ave82158:17-97
16Casa Pia92165:17-127
17Nacional81169:18-94
18Estoril80264:12-82

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg153%1.79X26%3.59221%4.55

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 0.9% margin.

1X2 since open average price

21 Oct 00:0124 Oct 08:011 1.75X 3.672 4.71
11.71 → 1.75 +2.3%X3.61 → 3.67 +1.7%24.80 → 4.71 -1.9%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
Pinnacle1.931.953.1%
1xBet1.961.923.1%
Betano2.001.854.1%
Bet3651.951.855.3%
Betfair1.901.876.1%
Marathonbet1.891.857.0%
BetVictor1.861.819.0%
Best of all books2.001.951.3%
Average1.931.875.3%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Betfair1.901.876.1%
Bet3651.801.956.8%
Betano1.871.877.0%
William Hill1.831.917.0%
1xBet1.811.907.9%
BetVictor1.801.908.2%
Marathonbet1.811.878.7%
Best of all books1.901.953.9%
Average1.831.907.4%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Estrela 45%Draw 45%Casa Pia 10%

The statistical model rated Estrela at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Casa Pia at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.79 | 3.59 | 4.55, which imply roughly 55.9% for a Estrela win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Primeira Liga table: Estrela are 10th (10 pts, 14-17 goals), Casa Pia 16th (7 pts, 5-17).

Over their last five matches, Estrela averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game; Casa Pia averaged 0.6 scored and 1.4 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Estrela or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Estrela

4-2-3-1

Coach: Pepa

Goalkeeper

  • 24Léo Linck

Defence

  • 21M. Scholze
  • 30Patrick Luan
  • 5S. Leković
  • 55Rafa Soares

Midfield

  • 78Santiago Serra
  • 39Eddy Doue
  • 99A. Marcus
  • 14L. Zvonarek
  • 10I. Stoica

Attack

  • 37L. Antonetti
Substitutes (12)
  • 4Bernardo Schappo
  • 80Alisson
  • 79A. Chernev
  • 17Jefferson Encada
  • 22David Grilo
  • 6K. Höög Jansson
  • 19Joan Jordán
  • 3L. Mincarelli Davin
  • 28T. Moustier
  • 51Diogo Pinto
  • 93B. Souza
  • 72H. Poniewas

Casa Pia

4-2-3-1

Coach: Filipe Coelho

Goalkeeper

  • 1P. Sequeira

Defence

  • 18Geraldes
  • 3Kaly
  • 43David Sousa
  • 75Pedro Rosas

Midfield

  • 80L. Ofori
  • 24S. Pérez
  • 11M. El Boukammiri
  • 70João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo
  • 77B. Pauwels

Attack

  • 90Cassiano
Substitutes (12)
  • 19K. Prieto
  • 17E. Maurin
  • 95Ivan Mandić
  • 29J. Livolant
  • 27Kaique Rocha
  • 98JP
  • 20A. Jatta
  • 4João Goulart
  • 8Gabi Pereira
  • 44Felipe Silva
  • 9Henrique Araújo
  • 16Silvi

Match Statistics

EstrelaCasa Pia
1.72Expected Goals0.81
429Passes accurate226
14Shots insidebox6
4Shots outsidebox4
7Blocked Shots3
12Free Kicks13
6Shots on Goal4
2Goalkeeper Saves6
5Shots off Goal3
504Total passes303
18Total Shots10
1Yellow Cards2
7Corner Kicks5
13Fouls13
0Red Cards0
63%Ball Possession37%

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
1.763.664.69

Double chance

1XX212
1.192.021.26

Draw no bet

12
1.293.37

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.831.90

1st half

1X2
2.302.204.93

2nd half

1X2
2.092.494.44

HT/FT

HT / FTFT 1FT XFT 2
HT 12.6715.343.4
HT X4.525.369.77
HT 224.215.77.72

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
1.599.252.68

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.049.40
1.51.293.40
2.51.931.87
3.53.291.32
4.56.371.10
5.512.81.02
6.518.91.01
7.531.3–
13 more lines
LineOverUnder
0.751.038.07
11.057.48
1.251.154.46
1.751.352.90
21.472.63
2.251.692.14
2.752.131.67
32.611.47
3.252.811.37
3.753.801.21
45.141.12
4.255.451.10
58.551.04

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-1.53.101.35
-1.252.711.43
-12.371.57
-0.751.971.82
-0.51.742.09
-0.251.512.46
12 more lines
LineHomeAway
-3.511.01.02
-2.757.371.04
-2.55.981.10
-2.255.581.11
-25.201.14
-1.753.781.24
01.293.38
+0.251.233.89
+0.51.184.65
+0.751.115.73
+11.028.50
+1.51.0310.2

Cards in match

LineOverUnder
3.51.253.70
4.51.522.45
5.51.951.80
6.52.651.45
7.53.701.25

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
4.51.0310.8
5.51.047.90
6.51.124.98
7.51.263.36
8.51.512.39
9.51.861.85
10.52.381.51
11.53.151.30
12.54.401.16
13.56.131.08
14.57.981.04
15.510.31.03
10 more lines
LineOverUnder
7.751.273.14
8.251.392.64
8.751.542.25
91.702.10
9.251.741.98
9.751.941.74
102.191.64
10.252.221.54
10.752.571.40
11.253.041.29

Next Primeira Liga matches

25 OctEstoril – Moreirense
25 OctNacional – SC Braga
25 OctRio Ave – Famalicao
25 OctSporting CP – Academico Viseu
26 OctSanta Clara – Benfica

All Primeira Liga fixtures and the table

Latest Primeira Liga results

24 OctGIL Vicente 0-1 FC Porto
24 OctAlverca 0-1 Arouca
23 OctVitória SC 5-0 Maritimo
19 OctSC Braga 1-2 GIL Vicente
12 OctFamalicao 1-4 Alverca
11 OctArouca 1-0 Estrela