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Nacional vs SC Braga• Primeira Liga, Portugal

#151.0:3.01-0FT25/10 · Estádio da Madeira, Funchal0.8:1.4#9

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

17.00B365X4.56PIN21.52BTNMargin at best2.0%Books10Markets90Rating34 · 66Exp. goals L53.1

Price board · 1X2captured 25 Oct 17:05 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
Betano6.904.551.522.3%
1xBet6.934.431.513.2%
Pinnacle6.964.561.483.9%
Dafabet7.004.501.484.1%
Betfair7.004.331.446.8%
Bet3657.004.201.457.1%
Marathonbet6.654.251.457.5%
William Hill6.004.001.508.3%
BetVictor6.504.001.449.8%
SBO6.474.021.4210.8%
Best of all books7.004.561.522.0%
Average6.744.281.476.3%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

NacionalSC Braga
Last 10#15Table position#90.78Points per game1.220Form pts · last 541.0Goals for · last 50.83.0Goals against · last 51.456Attack rating4432Defence rating680Form rating10020H2H rating8035Goals model6534Overall rating66

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 25 Oct 00:11 UTC

Nacional

1W 1D 8L · goals 9:21 · per match 0.9 for, 2.1 against

17 OctASanjoanense0-1L
11 OctARio Ave2-3L
19 SepHFamalicao0-4L
12 SepHAlverca1-3L
5 SepASporting CP0-2L
30 AugHEstrela2-3L
23 AugAVitória SC0-1L
16 AugHEstoril2-0W
10 AugASanta Clara2-2D
23 JulAEstrela0-2L

SC Braga

4W 2D 4L · goals 9:11 · per match 0.9 for, 1.1 against

22 OctHGent2-0W
19 OctHGIL Vicente1-2L
15 OctAFC Copenhagen0-3L
9 OctHSporting CP1-3L
20 SepASanta Clara0-0D
14 SepHEstoril1-0W
10 SepAEstrela1-2L
5 SepAAlverca2-1W
31 AugHVitória SC1-0W
27 AugAAustria Vienna0-0D

Head to head

4Nacional wins
4draws
18SC Braga wins

26 meetings · goals 28:57 · last 10: 1W 1D 8L for Nacional

28 Feb 2026Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaNacional1-2SC Braga
23 Nov 2025Taça de PortugalTaça de PortugalSC Braga4-2Nacional
28 Sep 2025Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaSC Braga0-1Nacional
21 Feb 2025Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaSC Braga1-0Nacional
20 Sep 2024Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaNacional0-3SC Braga
22 Dec 2023Taça da LigaTaça da LigaNacional1-3SC Braga
25 Apr 2023Taça de PortugalTaça de PortugalSC Braga2-2Nacional
12 Apr 2023Taça de PortugalTaça de PortugalNacional0-5SC Braga
28 Feb 2021Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaNacional1-2SC Braga
17 Oct 2020Primeira LigaPrimeira LigaSC Braga2-1Nacional

Primeira Liga tablePrimeira Ligaupdated 26 Oct 00:01 UTC

In the Primeira Liga table, Nacional sit 15th with 7 points from 9 games, while SC Braga are 9th with 11 points from 9.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1FC Porto990021:4+1727
2Benfica861124:7+1719
3Sporting CP953121:11+1018
4Santa Clara853012:4+818
5Arouca952212:7+517
6Academico Viseu952213:11+217
7GIL Vicente94238:7+114
8Alverca932413:13011
9SC Braga93249:11-211
10Moreirense932411:16-511
11Famalicao924314:11+310
12Estrela924314:17-310
13Vitória SC922510:1008
14Maritimo92259:19-108
15Nacional921610:18-87
16Casa Pia92165:17-127
17Rio Ave92168:21-137
18Estoril90275:15-102

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg115%6.07X23%4.12262%1.51

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 2.0% margin.

1X2 since open average price

22 Oct 00:0125 Oct 17:401 6.74X 4.282 1.47
15.77 → 6.74 +16.8%X3.97 → 4.28 +7.8%21.55 → 1.47 -5.2%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
Pinnacle1.901.992.9%
1xBet1.911.973.1%
Betano1.852.004.1%
SBO1.901.944.2%
Bet3651.851.955.3%
Betfair1.871.877.0%
Marathonbet1.841.907.0%
BetVictor1.801.879.0%
Best of all books1.912.002.4%
Average1.871.945.3%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Betfair2.051.736.6%
Betano1.981.786.7%
Bet3652.001.757.1%
1xBet1.971.757.9%
William Hill1.911.807.9%
BetVictor1.951.758.4%
Marathonbet1.971.738.6%
Best of all books2.051.804.3%
Average1.981.767.6%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Nacional 10%Draw 45%SC Braga 45%

The statistical model rated Nacional at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and SC Braga at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 6.07 | 4.12 | 1.51, which imply roughly 24.3% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Primeira Liga table: Nacional are 15th (7 pts, 10-18 goals), SC Braga 9th (11 pts, 9-11).

Over their last five matches, Nacional averaged 1 goals scored and 3 conceded per game; SC Braga averaged 0.8 scored and 1.4 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or SC Braga.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Nacional

4-2-3-1

Coach: João Henriques

Goalkeeper

  • 1Renato Bellucci

Defence

  • 11S. Gavriel
  • 33Francisco Gonçalves
  • 38Zé Vitor
  • 21W. Kokolo

Midfield

  • 6Matheus Dias
  • 8Miguel Baeza
  • 7M. Jensen
  • 15C. Labidi
  • 12Song Min-Kyu

Attack

  • 29N. Kader
Substitutes (12)
  • 20Matchoi Djaló
  • 31D. Dongmo
  • 14Ivanildo Fernandes
  • 13João Gonçalves
  • 5José Gomes
  • 17F. Nava
  • 9A. Obando
  • 99Pablo Ruan
  • 26Joel da Silva
  • 2Daniel Isai de la Cruz de la Cruz
  • 10Daniel Júnior
  • 88Deivison

SC Braga

3-4-3

Coach: Franclim Carvalho

Goalkeeper

  • 31Bernardo Fontes

Defence

  • 14G. Lagerbielke
  • 22Sergio Barcia
  • 26B. Arrey-Mbi

Midfield

  • 2Víctor Gómez
  • 29J. Gorby
  • 16Tomás Marqués
  • 11Gabriel Silva

Attack

  • 21Ricardo Horta
  • 17J. Milošević
  • 10Pau Victor
Substitutes (12)
  • 20M. Dorgeles
  • 23D. Huseinbašić
  • 78João Carvalho
  • 8João Moutinho
  • 9Fran Navarro
  • 50Diego Rodrigues
  • 34E. Tıknaz
  • 7Diogo Travassos
  • 6Vitor Carvalho
  • 44A. Bajrami
  • 37A. Barišić
  • 77Gabri Martínez

Match Statistics

NacionalSC Braga
0.51Expected Goals1.42
133Passes accurate476
4Shots insidebox12
4Shots outsidebox8
1Blocked Shots9
12Free Kicks18
4Shots on Goal2
2Goalkeeper Saves3
3Shots off Goal9
2Offsides3
227Total passes542
8Total Shots20
2Yellow Cards2
4Corner Kicks7
18Fouls12
0Red Cards0
29%Ball Possession71%

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
6.744.281.47

Double chance

1XX212
2.601.101.19

Draw no bet

12
5.001.15

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.981.76

1st half

1X2
6.342.301.99

2nd half

1X2
5.842.651.79

HT/FT

HT / FTFT 1FT XFT 2
HT 111.318.123.1
HT X13.56.164.08
HT 254.617.62.17

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
3.2611.61.41

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.0410.7
1.51.263.65
2.51.871.94
3.53.161.34
4.56.001.11
5.511.11.03
6.516.91.02
7.531.3–
14 more lines
LineOverUnder
0.75–10.4
11.028.60
1.251.144.81
1.751.313.05
21.412.82
2.251.632.21
2.752.091.72
32.451.53
3.252.711.40
3.753.631.23
45.041.13
4.255.351.10
4.757.021.05
58.851.04

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
+0.52.681.47
+0.752.351.58
+12.051.77
+1.251.732.07
+1.51.582.34
+1.751.402.78
12 more lines
LineHomeAway
-1.512.01.02
-0.758.271.03
-0.56.601.11
-0.255.691.11
05.221.14
+0.253.391.29
+21.263.68
+2.251.213.93
+2.51.184.39
+2.751.115.55
+31.047.90
+3.51.038.62

Cards in match

LineOverUnder
3.51.353.05
4.51.702.07
5.52.271.60
6.53.201.32
7.54.601.17

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
4.51.0310.5
5.51.056.73
6.51.144.51
7.51.293.13
8.51.572.26
9.51.941.82
10.52.461.46
11.53.261.26
12.54.491.14
13.56.111.07
14.58.251.05
15.510.31.03
16 more lines
LineOverUnder
61.065.10
71.173.59
7.751.312.92
81.412.62
8.251.452.44
8.751.612.11
91.771.98
9.251.831.85
9.752.111.68
102.241.56
10.252.411.49
10.752.761.36
112.831.28
11.253.281.25
123.801.15
134.971.07

Next Primeira Liga matches

26 OctSanta Clara – Benfica

All Primeira Liga fixtures and the table

Latest Primeira Liga results

25 OctSporting CP 1-2 Academico Viseu
25 OctRio Ave 0-4 Famalicao
25 OctEstoril 1-3 Moreirense
24 OctGIL Vicente 0-1 FC Porto
24 OctAlverca 0-1 Arouca
24 OctEstrela 0-2 Casa Pia