Arouca vs Estrela• Primeira Liga, Portugal

#51.0:1.419:30Tomorrow · Arouca2.0:2.0#9

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.20BTNX3.621XB23.50B365Margin at best1.7%Books10Markets77Rating49 · 51 levelExp. goals L53.2

Price board · 1X2captured 9 Oct 22:12 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
1xBet	2.14	3.62	3.48	3.1%
Dafabet	2.15	3.50	3.50	3.7%
Pinnacle	2.08	3.55	3.47	5.1%
Betano	2.12	3.45	3.45	5.1%
Betfair	2.10	3.50	3.30	6.5%
Bet365	2.10	3.30	3.50	6.5%
Marathonbet	2.05	3.48	3.34	7.5%
William Hill	2.10	3.30	3.25	8.7%
BetVictor	2.05	3.30	3.25	9.9%
SBO	2.09	2.99	2.95	15.2%
Best of all books	2.15	3.62	3.50	2.7%
Average	2.10	3.40	3.35	6.9%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

AroucaEstrela

Last 10#5Table position#91.57Points per game1.435Form pts · last 581.0Goals for · last 52.01.4Goals against · last 52.033Attack rating6759Defence rating4138Form rating6250H2H rating5069Goals model3149Overall rating51

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 9 Oct 19:11 UTC

Arouca

4W 3D 3L · goals 12:10 · per match 1.2 for, 1.0 against

19 Sep	A	Sporting CP	2-2	D
13 Sep	H	Santa Clara	1-2	L
7 Sep	A	Estoril	0-0	D
29 Aug	H	Maritimo	2-1	W
23 Aug	A	FC Porto	0-2	L
16 Aug	H	Moreirense	4-0	W
8 Aug	A	Vitória SC	1-0	W
1 Aug	A	Lusitânia Lourosa	2-0	W
25 Jul	A	Santa Clara	0-3	L
22 Jul	A	Famalicao	0-0	D

Estrela

4W 5D 1L · goals 20:17 · per match 2.0 for, 1.7 against

20 Sep	H	Academico Viseu	0-2	L
14 Sep	A	Rio Ave	3-3	D
10 Sep	H	SC Braga	2-1	W
5 Sep	H	Famalicao	2-2	D
30 Aug	A	Nacional	3-2	W
15 Aug	A	Alverca	2-2	D
8 Aug	H	Sporting CP	2-2	D
1 Aug	H	Al-Nassr	4-2	W
29 Jul	H	Lusitano Évora 1911	1-0	W
29 Jul	H	Portimonense	1-1	D

Head to head

3Arouca wins

1draws

2Estrela wins

6 meetings · goals 8:6 · last 6: 3W 1D 2L for Arouca

19 Apr 2026Primeira Liga	Primeira Liga	Arouca1-0Estrela
7 Dec 2025Primeira Liga	Primeira Liga	Estrela3-1Arouca
19 Apr 2025Primeira Liga	Primeira Liga	Arouca1-0Estrela
9 Dec 2024Primeira Liga	Primeira Liga	Estrela2-1Arouca
5 May 2024Primeira Liga	Primeira Liga	Arouca0-0Estrela
28 Dec 2023Primeira Liga	Primeira Liga	Estrela1-4Arouca

Primeira Liga tablePrimeira Ligaupdated 10 Oct 00:02 UTC

In the Primeira Liga table, Arouca sit 5th with 11 points from 7 games, while Estrela are 9th with 10 points from 7.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	7	7	0	0	18:3	+15	21
2	Sporting CP	8	5	3	0	20:9	+11	18
3	Benfica	7	5	1	1	22:7	+15	16
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	11:4	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	10:7	+3	11
6	GIL Vicente	7	3	2	2	6:5	+1	11
7	SC Braga	7	3	2	2	8:8	0	11
8	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	9:9	0	11
9	Estrela	7	2	4	1	14:14	0	10
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	9:11	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	8:12	-4	8
12	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	8:15	-7	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	9:7	+2	7
14	Vitória SC	7	1	2	4	5:8	-3	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	7:15	-8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	5:15	-10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	3:16	-13	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	3:10	-7	2

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg144%2.10X28%3.38228%3.33

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 1.7% margin.

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
1xBet	1.93	1.95	3.1%
Betano	1.93	1.93	3.6%
Pinnacle	1.88	1.96	4.2%
SBO	1.88	1.94	4.7%
Bet365	1.85	1.95	5.3%
Betfair	1.87	1.90	6.1%
Marathonbet	1.86	1.88	7.0%
BetVictor	1.81	1.86	9.0%
Best of all books	1.93	1.96	2.8%
Average	1.88	1.92	5.3%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	1.67	2.15	6.4%
Betano	1.70	2.07	7.1%
William Hill	1.67	2.10	7.5%
Bet365	1.70	2.05	7.6%
1xBet	1.70	2.04	7.8%
Marathonbet	1.70	2.01	8.6%
BetVictor	1.67	2.05	8.7%
Best of all books	1.70	2.15	5.3%
Average	1.69	2.07	7.6%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Arouca 35%Draw 35%Estrela 30%

The statistical model rates Arouca at 35% to win, the draw at 35% and Estrela at 30% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.10 | 3.38 | 3.33, which imply roughly 47.6% for a Arouca win versus the model's 35%.

Form context from the Primeira Liga table: Arouca are 5th (11 pts, 10-7 goals), Estrela 9th (10 pts, 14-14).

Over their last five matches, Arouca averaged 1 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game; Estrela averaged 2 scored and 2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : Arouca or draw and +1.5 goals (goal line signal: over 1.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.10	3.40	3.35

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.30	1.71	1.28

Draw no bet

1	2
1.52	2.39

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.69	2.07

1st half

1	X	2
2.64	2.17	3.83

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.73	11.6	2.24

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.04	10.5
1.5	1.25	3.61
2.5	1.88	1.92
3.5	3.14	1.32
4.5	6.06	1.10
5.5	11.5	1.04
6.5	22.5	1.01
7.5	50.5	–

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.01	8.85
1	1.01	8.50
1.25	1.12	4.70
1.75	1.33	3.03
2	1.42	2.71
2.25	1.67	2.18
2.75	2.09	1.68
3	2.47	1.49
3.25	2.80	1.38
3.75	3.74	1.19
4	5.10	1.10
4.25	5.45	1.08
5	8.50	1.03

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1	3.04	1.34
-0.75	2.40	1.52
-0.5	2.08	1.73
-0.25	1.81	1.99
0	1.52	2.49
+0.25	1.39	2.86

13 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	8.10	1.03
-2.25	7.50	1.03
-2	7.10	1.04
-1.75	4.95	1.13
-1.5	3.78	1.21
-1.25	3.41	1.27
+0.5	1.31	3.37
+0.75	1.19	4.17
+1	1.08	6.17
+1.25	1.07	6.70
+1.5	1.07	6.82
+1.75	1.01	8.80
+2.5	1.02	12.0

Cards in match

Line	Over	Under
5.5	2.00	1.75

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
3.5	1.02	12.0
4.5	1.04	9.00
5.5	1.07	6.33
6.5	1.18	4.03
7.5	1.38	2.75
8.5	1.70	2.05
9.5	2.14	1.63
10.5	2.90	1.33
11.5	4.08	1.18
12.5	5.80	1.08
13.5	8.13	1.03
14.5	10.3	1.03

16 more lines

Line	Over	Under
6	1.07	4.89
6.75	1.18	3.86
7	1.19	3.40
7.25	1.29	3.10
7.75	1.41	2.60
8	1.43	2.54
8.25	1.57	2.22
8.75	1.77	1.92
9	1.91	1.87
9.25	2.00	1.67
9.75	2.28	1.50
10	2.34	1.51
10.25	2.69	1.36
11	3.00	1.25
12	4.02	1.13
13	5.22	1.06