Ards vs Newry City AFC• Championship, Northern-Ireland

#90.8:1.01-1FT31/101.6:1.6#7

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.23DAFX3.65DAF22.93PINMargin at best6.4%Books9Markets45Rating37 · 63Exp. goals L52.5

Price board · 1X2captured 31 Oct 09:45 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	2.21	3.55	2.95	7.3%
Betano	2.20	3.40	2.92	9.1%
BetVictor	2.15	3.50	2.90	9.6%
Betfair	2.15	3.40	2.88	10.6%
1xBet	2.10	3.42	2.93	11.0%
Bet365	2.15	3.40	2.80	11.6%
Pinnacle	2.11	3.29	2.93	11.9%
Marathonbet	2.08	3.42	2.86	12.3%
William Hill	2.15	3.20	2.80	13.5%
Best of all books	2.21	3.55	2.95	7.3%
Average	2.14	3.40	2.89	10.7%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

ArdsNewry City AFC

Last 10#9Table position#71.21Points per game1.436Form pts · last 550.8Goals for · last 51.61.0Goals against · last 51.633Attack rating6762Defence rating3842Form rating5829H2H rating7120Goals model8037Overall rating63

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 30 Oct 13:30 UTC

Ards

2W 4D 4L · goals 6:10 · per match 0.6 for, 1.0 against

24 Oct	A	Armagh City	1-1	D
20 Oct	A	Rathfriland	0-0	D
16 Oct	H	Institute	0-2	L
9 Oct	A	Newington Youth	2-0	W
3 Oct	A	Ballinamallard United	1-1	D
26 Sep	H	Strabane Athletic	0-1	L
19 Sep	A	Moyola Park	0-0	D
12 Sep	H	Rathfriland	1-0	W
4 Sep	A	Annagh United	1-2	L
28 Aug	H	Queen's University	0-3	L

Newry City AFC

2W 5D 3L · goals 14:17 · per match 1.4 for, 1.7 against

31 Oct	A	Ards	1-1	D
23 Oct	H	Newington Youth	0-2	L
20 Oct	A	Carrick Rangers	0-3	L
17 Oct	A	Queen's University	1-1	D
9 Oct	H	Dundela	3-1	W
3 Oct	A	Loughgall	1-2	L
25 Sep	H	H&W Welders	3-2	W
18 Sep	H	Annagh United	1-1	D
11 Sep	A	Strabane Athletic	2-2	D
4 Sep	H	Armagh City	2-2	D

Head to head

3Ards wins

1draws

8Newry City AFC wins

12 meetings · goals 14:25 · last 10: 2W 1D 7L for Ards

4 Mar 2025Championship	Championship	Newry City AFC2-0Ards
14 Dec 2024Championship	Championship	Ards0-1Newry City AFC
4 Oct 2024Championship	Championship	Newry City AFC1-4Ards
12 Mar 2022Championship	Championship	Newry City AFC4-0Ards
29 Oct 2021Championship	Championship	Ards1-1Newry City AFC
27 Aug 2021Championship	Championship	Newry City AFC2-1Ards
12 Oct 2019Championship	Championship	Newry City AFC5-1Ards
10 Aug 2019Championship	Championship	Ards0-3Newry City AFC
5 Apr 2019Premiership	Premiership	Newry City AFC3-0Ards
23 Feb 2019Premiership	Premiership	Ards3-1Newry City AFC

Championship tableChampionship 1updated 5 Nov 06:10 UTC

In the Championship table, Ards sit 9th with 17 points from 14 games, while Newry City AFC are 7th with 20 points from 14.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Annagh United	14	9	4	1	36:16	+20	31
2	Glenavon FC	13	8	3	2	34:16	+18	27
3	Newington Youth	13	8	2	3	29:22	+7	26
4	Institute	13	6	3	4	23:18	+5	21
5	Ballinamallard United	14	6	3	5	20:19	+1	21
6	Queen's University	14	6	2	6	24:18	+6	20
7	Newry City AFC	14	5	5	4	21:23	-2	20
8	Warrenpoint Town	12	5	3	4	21:17	+4	18
9	Ards	14	4	5	5	16:17	-1	17
10	Loughgall	14	4	5	5	18:26	-8	17
11	H&W Welders	13	5	1	7	19:22	-3	16
12	Moyola Park	13	4	3	6	15:25	-10	15
13	Rathfriland	13	4	1	8	14:25	-11	13
14	Dundela	12	2	5	5	19:24	-5	11
15	Strabane Athletic	14	2	5	7	13:24	-11	11
16	Armagh City	14	1	6	7	12:22	-10	9

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg142%2.15X27%3.39231%2.89

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 6.4% margin.

1X2 since open average price

12.20 → 2.15 -2.3%X3.52 → 3.42 -2.8%22.76 → 2.87 +4.0%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.70	2.10	6.4%
Betano	1.67	2.07	8.2%
BetVictor	1.65	2.10	8.2%
Pinnacle	1.68	2.03	8.8%
1xBet	1.65	2.06	9.1%
Marathonbet	1.65	2.06	9.1%
Best of all books	1.70	2.10	6.4%
Average	1.67	2.07	8.3%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Bet365	1.62	2.20	7.2%
Betano	1.57	2.22	8.7%
BetVictor	1.53	2.30	8.8%
William Hill	1.57	2.20	9.1%
1xBet	1.54	2.26	9.2%
Marathonbet	1.54	2.22	10.0%
Best of all books	1.62	2.30	5.2%
Average	1.56	2.23	8.8%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Ards 10%Draw 45%Newry City AFC 45%

The statistical model rated Ards at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Newry City AFC at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.15 | 3.39 | 2.89, which imply roughly 29.5% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Championship table: Ards are 9th (17 pts, 16-17 goals), Newry City AFC 7th (20 pts, 21-23).

Over their last five matches, Ards averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1 conceded per game; Newry City AFC averaged 1.6 scored and 1.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Newry City AFC.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.14	3.40	2.89

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.34	1.59	1.24

Draw no bet

1	2
1.62	2.17

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.56	2.23

1st half

1	X	2
2.70	2.22	3.37

2nd half

1	X	2
2.47	2.54	3.11

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	3.53	14.5	26.3
HT X	5.73	5.63	6.87
HT 2	22.0	14.2	4.56

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.77	15.0	2.04

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.02	12.5
1.5	1.18	4.06
2.5	1.67	2.07
3.5	2.61	1.40
4.5	4.65	1.14
5.5	8.27	1.06
6.5	12.0	1.01
7.5	17.0	–

10 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.04	8.00
1.75	1.21	3.58
2	1.28	3.12
2.25	1.46	2.41
2.75	1.83	1.84
3	2.06	1.65
3.25	2.36	1.48
3.75	3.14	1.27
4	4.20	1.16
4.25	3.90	1.21

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.75	2.44	1.47
-0.5	2.15	1.64
-0.25	1.86	1.83
0	1.60	2.19
+0.25	1.44	2.51
+0.5	1.37	2.85

11 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	8.70	1.01
-2	7.80	1.02
-1.75	5.25	1.16
-1.5	4.00	1.19
-1.25	3.57	1.23
-1	3.15	1.29
+0.75	1.24	3.52
+1	1.12	5.13
+1.25	1.15	5.10
+1.5	1.08	6.10
+1.75	1.10	7.00

Next Championship matches

6 Nov	Strabane Athletic – Annagh United
6 Nov	Moyola Park – Newry City AFC

All Championship fixtures and the table

Latest Championship results

31 Oct	Ballinamallard United 0-1 Armagh City
31 Oct	Institute 1-1 Moyola Park
31 Oct	Loughgall 0-3 Annagh United
24 Oct	H&W Welders 1-2 Loughgall
23 Oct	Newry City AFC 0-2 Newington Youth
23 Oct	Strabane Athletic 0-1 Ballinamallard United