Toulouse vs Estac Troyes• Ligue 1, France

#112.0:1.416:1525/10 · Stadium Municipal, Toulouse0.6:3.0#17

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.65PINX4.361XB25.50B365Margin at best1.7%Books10Markets93Rating74 · 26Exp. goals L53.5

Price board · 1X2captured 22 Oct 20:41 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
1xBet	1.65	4.36	5.49	1.8%
Pinnacle	1.65	4.23	5.09	3.9%
Dafabet	1.62	4.30	5.20	4.2%
Marathonbet	1.61	4.25	5.35	4.3%
Betano	1.65	4.05	5.10	4.9%
Bet365	1.60	4.00	5.50	5.7%
Betfair	1.60	4.20	5.00	6.3%
William Hill	1.57	4.00	5.00	8.7%
BetVictor	1.55	4.10	5.00	8.9%
SBO	1.54	3.83	4.67	12.5%
Best of all books	1.65	4.36	5.50	1.7%
Average	1.60	4.13	5.14	6.0%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

ToulouseEstac Troyes

Last 10#11Table position#171.29Points per game0.578Form pts · last 512.0Goals for · last 50.61.4Goals against · last 53.077Attack rating2368Defence rating32100Form rating085H2H rating1556Goals model4474Overall rating26

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 21 Oct 00:02 UTC

Toulouse

3W 3D 4L · goals 17:17 · per match 1.7 for, 1.7 against

16 Oct	A	Le Mans	3-0	W
10 Oct	A	Monaco	2-2	D
3 Oct	H	PAU	2-3	L
19 Sep	H	Le Havre	3-2	W
12 Sep	A	Lorient	2-2	D
3 Sep	H	Lille	0-1	L
29 Aug	A	Stade Brestois 29	2-2	D
22 Aug	H	Lyon	0-2	L
15 Aug	H	Hamburger SV	1-2	L
31 Jul	H	Real Sociedad	2-1	W

Estac Troyes

1W 4D 5L · goals 9:20 · per match 0.9 for, 2.0 against

17 Oct	H	Lens	1-3	L
11 Oct	H	Marseille	0-2	L
2 Oct	A	Dijon	2-2	D
19 Sep	A	Angers	0-2	L
13 Sep	A	Lille	0-2	L
6 Sep	H	Strasbourg	2-6	L
29 Aug	A	Lorient	2-1	W
22 Aug	H	Paris FC	0-0	D
14 Aug	H	Panetolikos	1-1	D
8 Aug	A	Auxerre	1-1	D

Head to head

7Toulouse wins

4draws

0Estac Troyes wins

11 meetings · goals 23:5 · last 10: 6W 4D 0L for Toulouse

1 Feb 2023Ligue 1	Ligue 1	Toulouse4-1Estac Troyes
14 Aug 2022Ligue 1	Ligue 1	Estac Troyes0-3Toulouse
9 Jul 2022Friendlies Clubs	Friendlies Clubs	Toulouse6-1Estac Troyes
6 Feb 2021Ligue 2	Ligue 2	Estac Troyes1-1Toulouse
3 Oct 2020Ligue 2	Ligue 2	Toulouse0-0Estac Troyes
27 Jan 2018Ligue 1	Ligue 1	Toulouse1-0Estac Troyes
9 Sep 2017Ligue 1	Ligue 1	Estac Troyes0-0Toulouse
7 May 2016Ligue 1	Ligue 1	Toulouse1-0Estac Troyes
2 Dec 2015Ligue 1	Ligue 1	Estac Troyes0-3Toulouse
16 Feb 2013Ligue 1	Ligue 1	Toulouse2-2Estac Troyes

Ligue 1 tableLigue 1updated 23 Oct 00:30 UTC

In the Ligue 1 table, Toulouse sit 11th with 9 points from 7 games, while Estac Troyes are 17th with 4 points from 7.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Lyon	7	4	2	1	13:5	+8	14
2	Paris Saint Germain	7	4	2	1	14:9	+5	14
3	Paris FC	7	4	2	1	12:7	+5	14
4	Lille	7	4	2	1	10:5	+5	14
5	Monaco	7	4	2	1	10:6	+4	14
6	Rennes	7	4	1	2	15:14	+1	13
7	Lorient	7	3	2	2	7:6	+1	11
8	Lens	7	3	1	3	14:11	+3	10
9	Marseille	7	3	0	4	14:10	+4	9
10	Stade Brestois 29	7	2	3	2	13:10	+3	9
11	Toulouse	7	2	3	2	12:11	+1	9
12	Auxerre	7	3	0	4	11:17	-6	9
13	Nice	7	2	2	3	6:9	-3	8
14	Strasbourg	7	2	1	4	12:15	-3	7
15	Angers	7	2	1	4	9:15	-6	7
16	Le Mans	7	1	3	3	10:15	-5	6
17	Estac Troyes	7	1	1	5	5:16	-11	4
18	Le Havre	7	0	2	5	5:11	-6	2

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg159%1.60X23%4.13218%5.14

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 1.7% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.64 → 1.60 -2.4%X4.09 → 4.13 +1.0%24.88 → 5.14 +5.3%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
1xBet	1.67	2.40	1.5%
Pinnacle	1.65	2.34	3.3%
Betano	1.65	2.32	3.7%
Marathonbet	1.62	2.33	4.6%
Bet365	1.62	2.30	5.2%
Betfair	1.60	2.30	6.0%
BetVictor	1.58	2.19	9.0%
Best of all books	1.67	2.40	1.5%
Average	1.63	2.31	4.7%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	1.65	2.20	6.1%
Betano	1.62	2.20	7.2%
Betfair	1.62	2.20	7.2%
1xBet	1.64	2.15	7.5%
Bet365	1.70	2.05	7.6%
Marathonbet	1.64	2.12	8.1%
BetVictor	1.62	2.15	8.2%
Best of all books	1.70	2.20	4.3%
Average	1.64	2.15	7.4%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Toulouse 45%Draw 45%Estac Troyes 10%

The statistical model rates Toulouse at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Estac Troyes at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.60 | 4.13 | 5.14, which imply roughly 62.5% for a Toulouse win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Ligue 1 table: Toulouse are 11th (9 pts, 12-11 goals), Estac Troyes 17th (4 pts, 5-16).

Over their last five matches, Toulouse averaged 2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game; Estac Troyes averaged 0.6 scored and 3 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Toulouse or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.60	4.13	5.14

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.16	2.31	1.21

Draw no bet

1	2
1.22	3.98

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.64	2.15

1st half

1	X	2
2.09	2.41	5.05

2nd half

1	X	2
1.89	2.79	4.68

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	2.36	14.9	40.9
HT X	4.55	6.49	11.2
HT 2	20.5	15.9	8.52

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.49	15.5	2.75

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.03	12.7
1.5	1.19	4.49
2.5	1.63	2.31
3.5	2.50	1.52
4.5	4.37	1.19
5.5	8.17	1.06
6.5	14.1	1.02
7.5	20.3	1.01

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.02	10.4
1.25	1.09	6.02
1.75	1.22	4.15
2	1.27	3.61
2.25	1.45	2.71
2.75	1.77	2.07
3	2.00	1.81
3.25	2.24	1.63
3.75	2.88	1.38
4	3.44	1.26
4.25	3.81	1.21
4.75	5.05	1.11
5	6.80	1.07

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	2.59	1.49
-1.25	2.29	1.61
-1	2.01	1.82
-0.75	1.75	2.09
-0.5	1.60	2.33
-0.25	1.41	2.83

13 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-3.5	8.75	1.03
-3	7.80	1.04
-2.75	5.67	1.10
-2.5	4.61	1.17
-2.25	4.17	1.20
-2	3.81	1.25
-1.75	3.05	1.36
0	1.23	3.94
+0.25	1.19	4.45
+0.5	1.15	5.50
+0.75	1.09	6.41
+1	1.02	9.40
+1.5	1.03	10.3

Cards in match

Line	Over	Under
2.5	1.35	3.06
3	1.53	2.47
3.5	1.83	1.91
4	2.41	1.55
4.5	2.66	1.45
5.5	3.60	1.26
6.5	5.40	1.13

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
3.5	1.01	12.5
4.5	1.03	10.0
5.5	1.05	7.13
6.5	1.15	4.57
7.5	1.30	3.05
8.5	1.59	2.22
9.5	2.01	1.75
10.5	2.61	1.43
11.5	3.58	1.23
12.5	5.10	1.11
13.5	7.13	1.05
14.5	9.25	1.04
15.5	11.3	1.02
16.5	13.0	1.01

16 more lines

Line	Over	Under
6	1.07	4.92
7	1.18	3.42
7.75	1.32	2.88
8	1.40	2.50
8.25	1.46	2.41
8.75	1.62	2.08
9	1.81	1.99
9.25	1.83	1.83
9.75	2.12	1.64
10	2.30	1.54
10.25	2.45	1.46
10.75	2.83	1.34
11	2.97	1.25
11.25	3.34	1.24
12	3.99	1.13
13	5.17	1.06

Next Ligue 1 matches

23 Oct	Stade Brestois 29 – Nice
24 Oct	Lens – Paris FC
25 Oct	Monaco – Lille
25 Oct	Angers – Lorient
25 Oct	Auxerre – Le Mans
25 Oct	Rennes – Strasbourg

All Ligue 1 fixtures and the table

Latest Ligue 1 results

18 Oct	Lyon 2-1 Nice
18 Oct	Paris FC 4-3 Rennes
18 Oct	Lorient 1-0 Monaco
18 Oct	Le Havre 1-3 Auxerre
18 Oct	Angers 2-5 Marseille
17 Oct	Estac Troyes 1-3 Lens