Belgium vs Italy• UEFA Nations League, World

1.6:1.219:45Tomorrow · Roi Baudouin, Brussels2.2:1.2

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.221XBX3.90B36523.17PINMargin at best2.2%Books10Markets89Rating45 · 55Exp. goals L53.1

Price board · 1X2captured 14 Nov 20:22 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
1xBet	2.21	3.84	3.14	3.1%
Marathonbet	2.21	3.84	3.14	3.1%
Pinnacle	2.23	3.88	3.07	3.2%
Dafabet	2.24	3.80	3.05	3.7%
Betano	2.20	3.85	3.00	4.8%
Betfair	2.20	3.80	3.00	5.1%
Bet365	2.20	3.90	2.90	5.6%
William Hill	2.10	3.60	3.00	8.7%
BetVictor	2.15	3.50	2.90	9.6%
SBO	2.16	3.22	2.80	13.1%
Best of all books	2.24	3.90	3.14	2.1%
Average	2.19	3.72	3.00	5.9%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

BelgiumItaly

Last 109Form pts · last 5101.6Goals for · last 52.21.2Goals against · last 51.242Attack rating5850Defence rating5047Form rating5329H2H rating7155Goals model4545Overall rating55

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 12 Nov 20:00 UTC

Belgium

6W 1D 3L · goals 21:12 · per match 2.1 for, 1.2 against

12 Nov	A	Türkiye	2-1	W
5 Oct	A	France	1-4	L
2 Oct	H	Türkiye	3-0	W
28 Sep	H	France	0-1	L
25 Sep	A	Italy	2-0	W
10 Jul	A	Spain	1-2	L
7 Jul	A	USA	4-1	W
1 Jul	H	Senegal	3-2	W
27 Jun	A	New Zealand	5-1	W
21 Jun	H	Iran	0-0	D

Italy

6W 2D 2L · goals 17:11 · per match 1.7 for, 1.1 against

12 Nov	H	France	3-1	W
5 Oct	H	Türkiye	3-1	W
2 Oct	A	France	1-1	D
28 Sep	A	Türkiye	4-1	W
25 Sep	H	Belgium	0-2	L
7 Jun	A	Greece	1-0	W
3 Jun	A	Luxembourg	1-0	W
31 Mar	A	Bosnia & Herzegovina	1-1	D
26 Mar	H	Northern Ireland	2-0	W
16 Nov	H	Norway	1-4	L

Head to head

1Belgium wins

1draws

4Italy wins

6 meetings · goals 6:9 · last 6: 1W 1D 4L for Belgium

25 Sep 2026UEFA Nations League	UEFA Nations League	Italy0-2Belgium
14 Nov 2024UEFA Nations League	UEFA Nations League	Belgium0-1Italy
10 Oct 2024UEFA Nations League	UEFA Nations League	Italy2-2Belgium
10 Oct 2021UEFA Nations League	UEFA Nations League	Italy2-1Belgium
2 Jul 2021Euro Championship	Euro Championship	Belgium1-2Italy
13 Jun 2016Euro Championship	Euro Championship	Belgium0-2Italy

UEFA Nations League tableLeague C - Group Bupdated 14 Nov 22:30 UTC

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Montenegro	5	4	1	0	9:5	+4	13
2	Cyprus	5	2	2	1	6:4	+2	8
3	Armenia	5	1	2	2	5:6	-1	5
4	Latvia	5	0	1	4	3:8	-5	1

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg144%2.16X26%3.69231%3.05

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 2.2% margin.

1X2 since open average price

12.17 → 2.16 -0.5%X3.55 → 3.69 +3.9%23.11 → 3.05 -1.9%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
1xBet	1.66	2.32	3.3%
Pinnacle	1.65	2.32	3.7%
Betano	1.67	2.25	4.3%
Marathonbet	1.64	2.29	4.6%
SBO	1.61	2.29	5.8%
Betfair	1.60	2.30	6.0%
Bet365	1.62	2.25	6.2%
BetVictor	1.60	2.15	9.0%
Best of all books	1.67	2.32	3.0%
Average	1.63	2.27	5.3%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	1.53	2.45	6.2%
Betano	1.57	2.30	7.2%
Bet365	1.53	2.38	7.4%
William Hill	1.53	2.38	7.4%
1xBet	1.52	2.40	7.5%
Marathonbet	1.52	2.36	8.2%
BetVictor	1.50	2.40	8.3%
Best of all books	1.57	2.45	4.5%
Average	1.53	2.38	7.4%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Belgium 10%Draw 45%Italy 45%

The statistical model rates Belgium at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Italy at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.16 | 3.69 | 3.05, which imply roughly 27.1% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Over their last five matches, Belgium averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game; Italy averaged 2.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Italy.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.19	3.72	3.00

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.37	1.68	1.26

Draw no bet

1	2
1.61	2.24

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.53	2.38

1st half

1	X	2
2.67	2.31	3.49

2nd half

1	X	2
2.45	2.64	3.20

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	3.36	13.8	28.0
HT X	5.75	6.13	7.24
HT 2	22.9	13.8	4.75

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.76	16.1	2.13

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.02	12.9
1.5	1.19	4.51
2.5	1.63	2.27
3.5	2.56	1.49
4.5	4.62	1.17
5.5	9.06	1.05
6.5	14.8	1.02
7.5	26.3	–

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.02	10.2
1.25	1.08	6.49
1.75	1.22	4.17
2	1.29	3.52
2.25	1.46	2.68
2.75	1.80	2.02
3	2.05	1.77
3.25	2.28	1.60
3.75	3.04	1.36
4	3.88	1.23
4.25	4.23	1.18
4.75	5.70	1.09
5	8.10	1.04

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.75	2.51	1.50
-0.5	2.17	1.69
-0.25	1.91	1.91
0	1.64	2.26
+0.25	1.48	2.59
+0.5	1.41	2.94

13 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-3.5	13.0	1.01
-2.5	8.56	1.04
-2	7.32	1.07
-1.75	5.13	1.13
-1.5	3.96	1.21
-1.25	3.60	1.27
-1	3.23	1.34
+0.75	1.27	3.70
+1	1.14	5.30
+1.25	1.12	5.77
+1.5	1.10	6.15
+1.75	1.03	8.53
+2.5	1.02	10.5

Cards in match

Line	Over	Under
2.5	1.19	4.35
3.5	1.41	2.76
4	1.56	2.37
4.5	1.89	1.85
5	2.13	1.72
5.5	2.65	1.44
6.5	3.60	1.26
7.5	4.35	1.19

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
3.5	1.01	13.0
4.5	1.02	13.6
5.5	1.05	6.97
6.5	1.12	4.94
7.5	1.25	3.34
8.5	1.49	2.39
9.5	1.88	1.87
10.5	2.38	1.51
11.5	3.17	1.28
12.5	4.34	1.16
13.5	6.08	1.08
14.5	8.75	1.04
15.5	11.9	1.02
16.5	12.5	1.01
17.5	14.0	1.01

16 more lines

Line	Over	Under
6	1.05	5.47
7	1.14	3.92
7.75	1.29	3.04
8	1.31	2.87
8.25	1.39	2.63
8.75	1.54	2.25
9	1.64	2.15
9.25	1.74	1.98
9.75	1.95	1.74
10	2.09	1.67
10.25	2.22	1.55
10.75	2.56	1.41
11	2.68	1.35
11.25	3.04	1.29
12	3.47	1.18
13	4.57	1.09

Next UEFA Nations League matches

15 Nov	Cyprus – Montenegro
15 Nov	Latvia – Armenia
15 Nov	Finland – San Marino
15 Nov	Belarus – Albania
15 Nov	Croatia – Czechia
15 Nov	Spain – England

All UEFA Nations League fixtures and the table

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